Assuming the Federal Reserve has only announced plans to continue pumping money into the system through April, This would be a reasonable bet. Unless the Federal Reserve does the same thing that Abe has done in Japan and keeps the market floating even though growth gets killed, the market won't fall. So BTC only has a shot if the Fed allows a MASSIVE market correction, but they are doing a new QE and will continue to do so because that is the only tool they have to help the market.
Can you elaborate how the feds doing a massive correction helps BTC in particular? I thought it would be inversely proportional--as there is a shortage of cash as indicated by repo rates and the inability for fed to fix it, it will drive borrowers and lenders to alternative currencies, jacking up BTC.
The correction would do what we expect and drive up the value of BTC as people want it and those who already have a lot of it will use BTC to bolster their assets. Just like we are seeing with south america, where inflation is rampant, workers are turning to online work and getting paid in BTC. It makes sense that the fall of USD as fiat currency would drive further adoption of BTC which is relatively stable. Relatively because only so much can be made, but there are a lot of hodlers out there waiting for the next spike.
Sounds improbable. A lot of people claim that the halving has been priced in, so it's not a reasonable single price indicator. Also we failed to see the same retail interest 2019 as in 2017 – which drove large parts of the all time high BTC price. I'd say a 250k price seams more plausible in 2024 – when there's more adoption and even less supply.
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