I would say yes, but I’m not a researcher and I could be wrong. However, given the current political, financial, and social climate it seems like a real possibility.
E.g. “customers” become (or are already) so disillusioned with the promises of an artificially intelligent future, that the marketing hype no longer works.
If you then couple this with the consolidation (not decentralization) that is likely to occur this decade, then we will at least see the hype-train slow to a slow roll, if that.
Maybe an "AI Fall", but I doubt there will ever be another true "AI Winter". The AI we have today is too good, and creates too much value... at this point, there is no longer any question as to whether or not there is value in continuing to research and invest in AI.
What will happen, almost without doubt, is that particular niches within the overall rubric of "AI" will go in and out of vogue, and investment in particular segments will fluctuate. For example, the steam will run out of the "deep learning revolution" at some point, as people realize that DL alone is not enough to make the leap to systems that employ common sense reasoning, have a grasp of intuitive physics, have an intuitive metaphysics, and have other such attributes that will be needed to come close to approximating human intelligence.
Disclaimer: credit for the observation about "intuitive physics" and "intuitive metaphysics" goes to Melanie Mitchell, via her recent AI Podcast interview with Lex Fridman.
One other observation... while we still don't know how far away AGI is (much less ASI), or even if it's possible, the important thing is that we don't need AGI to do many amazing and valuable things. I also doubt many people are actually all that disillusioned that we aren't yet living in The Matrix (or are we???).
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[ 3.6 ms ] story [ 13.2 ms ] threadE.g. “customers” become (or are already) so disillusioned with the promises of an artificially intelligent future, that the marketing hype no longer works.
If you then couple this with the consolidation (not decentralization) that is likely to occur this decade, then we will at least see the hype-train slow to a slow roll, if that.
Maybe an "AI Fall", but I doubt there will ever be another true "AI Winter". The AI we have today is too good, and creates too much value... at this point, there is no longer any question as to whether or not there is value in continuing to research and invest in AI.
What will happen, almost without doubt, is that particular niches within the overall rubric of "AI" will go in and out of vogue, and investment in particular segments will fluctuate. For example, the steam will run out of the "deep learning revolution" at some point, as people realize that DL alone is not enough to make the leap to systems that employ common sense reasoning, have a grasp of intuitive physics, have an intuitive metaphysics, and have other such attributes that will be needed to come close to approximating human intelligence.
Disclaimer: credit for the observation about "intuitive physics" and "intuitive metaphysics" goes to Melanie Mitchell, via her recent AI Podcast interview with Lex Fridman.
One other observation... while we still don't know how far away AGI is (much less ASI), or even if it's possible, the important thing is that we don't need AGI to do many amazing and valuable things. I also doubt many people are actually all that disillusioned that we aren't yet living in The Matrix (or are we???).