Interesting idea, it would only help if those people actually stayed home rather than working from a nearby coffeeshop or otherwise going into a public area.
I wonder what percentage of the population would have to work from home in order for this to impact the spread rate.
2 weeks is probably not enough, right? Assuming that it would be feasible for everyone to stay home for 100% of the time, that would still leave everyone in contact with N (avg number of people per household) minus 1 people, so for the isolation period to be able to eradicate a disease, in the worst case of each of those N people getting infected one after another instead of in parallel or all at the same time, that period would need to last for (N - 1) * (incubation time + period of possible infection), or something along those lines.
I doubt this would be really possible - utility services are definitely much more automated these days, the same thing with industry, but it's really far from everyone involved being able to control the whole operation remotely.
Also many industrilk processes are continuous, with any interruptions being costly & dangerous if abrupt (eq. if the skeleton crew messes something up and there is no one to help them).
It seems to me likely that the number of reported cases of this virus is much lower than the actual number. There are various plausible reasons, eg incubation periods, people not going to the doctors with flu like symptoms, authorities wanting to look in control of the situation.
A reason that might be bad is that it implies the virus is more contagious or at least more widespread than previously thought[1], and therefore more people will suffer from it.
A reason that might be good is that it could imply that the virus is much less deadly than previously thought[1], assuming that the deaths aren’t underreported in the same proportion as infections.
I don’t really have any intuition as to which of these effects is more significant.
[1] I think studies probably try to take underreporting into account and so by “previously thought,” I mean naïvely implied by the statistics.
"the man never became sick enough to require hospitalization, has had contact with few people and has been “self-isolating” at home since returning, leaving only left to seek outpatient medical treatment on two occasions. "
This is what really surprised me. He has this virus but is leaving his home to seek outpatient treatment. Really? So if he needs gas along the way did they suggest he should not make any stops? At the place he is being treated did he just walk in through the front doors touching the handles that other people will later touch? I am so confused on how this man is self isolating but also doing a couple of appointments. Did they take him via ambulance? Why would they not just go to his home and reduce risk of spreading it?
The number of reported cases in China is pretty much unanimously understood to be dramatically undercounted because there is simply a tremendous shortage of testing kits. There are videos showing nurses in Wuhan hospitals bemoaning this and social media posts suggesting this, patients are being turned away unless they are dying to go home and self isolate and rest, in some cases receiving injections daily but otherwise being told to return home.
Firsthand accounts by local journalists are one of the best ways we have to understand what's actually going on behind the Great Firewall of journalism.
One of the best is this semi-celebrity lawyer/journalist in Wuhan who is leaking video to YouTube visiting the outbreak hospitals (he's also pretty much a wanted man at this point by Chinese authorities), you can turn on subtitles for English:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU&ab_channel=Coron...
These firsthand accounts are great for identifying potentially systemic issues that could cause under reporting. However, other than pointing to directionality, it is dangerous to use them to estimate the magnitude.
Well let’s hope that means something. Restaurants also have health rules they are required by law to follow set up to help save lives from things like food poisoning yet I can go to my local health authority website and look at the violations from all the local restaurants. My point is if we are relying on people to self isolate I am less then hopeful. How did he get to that doctor? Did he use effective isolation techniques the whole way along? I know from working in the hospital the gown and gloving procedure before entering and leaving an isolation room is something I had to train to do and took reading and thought. Does this guy have that training? Let’s hope.
Bay Area parent here. This has been a rough cold and flu season. Schools send regular notices to families reminding people to keep their kids home if they’re showing signs of illness: fever, runny nose, coughing, etc. This is a good reminder to follow that guidance! Many kids have infant siblings or older relatives at home who are vulnerable.
It’s hard, I realize. In this country a lot of people rely on schools as a form of day care — that’s a whole different conversation. Hopefully as more data comes in we’ll find this particular virus to be mild. But either way, let’s all try and do our part to keep everyone healthy.
Something else to keep in mind is the importance of frequent hand washing, as skin contact is how these viruses spread in the absence of coughing and sneezing.
Hands should be washed for 20 seconds, all the way up to the wrist.
Frequent hand washing could cause skin dryness and cracking, so you might want to only use mild hand soap. I've found that the soaps with the fewest ingredients work best. You could also try applying moisturizer to your hands afterwards.
One of the many Asian shopping centers near me in Santa Clara County (Wolf Road, Cupertino) was much emptier tonight than it usually is. I think people are staying home out of fear.
Everyone should start wearing face mask especially during commute hours if you are taking public transportation like Bart of CalTrain now that the virus has reached the Bay Area. With the peak load of passengers even if one is infected then I could only hope that god bless us all :(
It's good to see all these cases are from people visiting China and not secondary cases from within the US. It suggests that the virus may not be contagious during the long incubation period like Chickenpox. That will make a huge difference in the speed at which is spreads preventing the huge flood of cases that we would see otherwise.
19 comments
[ 2.7 ms ] story [ 59.2 ms ] threadProbably there would have to be some skeleton crew of people keeping basic stuff running, but maybe those people could be heavily screened first.
I wonder what percentage of the population would have to work from home in order for this to impact the spread rate.
EDIT: grammar
Also many industrilk processes are continuous, with any interruptions being costly & dangerous if abrupt (eq. if the skeleton crew messes something up and there is no one to help them).
Randel Munroe of XKCD fame walks through this scenario in his "What If" book.
Link to sample on books.google.com
https://books.google.com/books?id=tgZIBAAAQBAJ&printsec=fron...
A reason that might be bad is that it implies the virus is more contagious or at least more widespread than previously thought[1], and therefore more people will suffer from it.
A reason that might be good is that it could imply that the virus is much less deadly than previously thought[1], assuming that the deaths aren’t underreported in the same proportion as infections.
I don’t really have any intuition as to which of these effects is more significant.
[1] I think studies probably try to take underreporting into account and so by “previously thought,” I mean naïvely implied by the statistics.
"the man never became sick enough to require hospitalization, has had contact with few people and has been “self-isolating” at home since returning, leaving only left to seek outpatient medical treatment on two occasions. "
Firsthand accounts by local journalists are one of the best ways we have to understand what's actually going on behind the Great Firewall of journalism.
One of the best is this semi-celebrity lawyer/journalist in Wuhan who is leaking video to YouTube visiting the outbreak hospitals (he's also pretty much a wanted man at this point by Chinese authorities), you can turn on subtitles for English: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU&ab_channel=Coron...
I like that euphemism
It’s hard, I realize. In this country a lot of people rely on schools as a form of day care — that’s a whole different conversation. Hopefully as more data comes in we’ll find this particular virus to be mild. But either way, let’s all try and do our part to keep everyone healthy.
Hands should be washed for 20 seconds, all the way up to the wrist.
Frequent hand washing could cause skin dryness and cracking, so you might want to only use mild hand soap. I've found that the soaps with the fewest ingredients work best. You could also try applying moisturizer to your hands afterwards.