> Tierno said much remains unknown about the virus. “I’m not certain that this is not bi-phasic, like anthrax,” he said, meaning the disease appears to go away before recurring.
I've seen this many times in the last few weeks. Can people please stop copying and pasting individual sentences of an article out of the actual context of the article and posting them in the comments. Even without a comment of their own. This way the article cannot be viewed objectively and that is also the reason why misinformation is spread. We are not in other "social communities" here. Thank you.
Ok I get it. But in truth your reaction is a coping mechanism for information that makes you uncomfortable. The quote is not misinformation and is actually the entire primary point of the article. Which in my experience those type of comments help me decide to read it in full. Anyway, sorry it annoys you.
Because the US fundamentally won’t take strong-arm approach is why everyone should be prepared to hunker down in their own homes for a few weeks or even months if there’s a local outbreak.
You can’t trust anyone sick to voluntarily quarantine.
This is why having people working paycheck to paycheck without health insurance is the worst. You can't stay home when you can't afford to. A lack of job security doesn't help either.
The buildings in the video you mention typically have multiple entrances. It is more probably they are sealing up these entrances to ensure people go through the obligatory temp check gate.
I've been living through it in Hong Kong for the past month, and this is just my personal view.
Time to panic? Absolutely not, but do take proper precautions. Wash your hands more often, try to avoid touching your face after you've been out in public. Don't go to areas where there are usually a lot of tourists.
I've seen the panic mentality here in Hong Kong, and there's no real difference between the people who panicked, and the people who didn't. Panicking just makes it worse for everyone else.
Not a doctor, but from what I've read, it's mostly transmitted through droplets, from coughing or sneezing. Especially when you use public transport, someone already infected might have sneezed or coughed, and then it's transmitted to you by you rubbing your eyes or mouth. I heard it's very low risk, but other than close contact with someone already infected, it's just another way.
How would stopping cruises and air travel inhibit healthcare? of course its about slowing progression, that's why its so baffling that international travel has been full speed ahead. its shocking really. hopefully a wake up call about what our priorities are.
This may simply be a case of a 3 tests where the 2nd one was a false negative - what we may need is better tests (or better protocols - for example 2 negative tests on consecutive days to declare someone 'cured')
In my country, the first person who was declared recovered was tested for several days (and coming up negative) before being discharged.
The NHK said that this woman had no contact with anyone after being released. I believe that, being one of the first cases, someone botched up the testing or she was discharged too early.
Mayo Clinic assessment of the 2003 SARS coronavirus:
>A biphasic course has been described in many patients, with an initial illness followed by improvement and then subsequent deterioration. This worsening can present as recurrent fever 4 to 7 days after initial defervescence, new chest infiltrates, respiratory failure, or watery diarrhea. In a cohort of 75 patients in Hong Kong, 85% had recurrent symptoms after initial improvement. The authors described a triphasic course with fever, myalgia early in week 1, and recurrent fever, hypoxemia, diarrhea, and shifting chest infiltrates in week 2. Twenty percent of patients progressed to ARDS during the third week of the illness. Quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) of nasopharyngeal aspirate in 14 patients with relapse showed peak viral loads occurred at day 10 after onset of symptoms, suggesting that the late deterioration may be due to the host immune response rather than to uncontrolled viral replication.
(Granted, the Japanese woman's symptoms disappeared for almost a month before reappearing.)
Similar to SARs and the 1918 Flu cause your own immune system to suffocate you as it sends too many white blood cells to the infection.
It's called a cytokine storm.
This is why this virus is not only dangerous to the old and weak, a healthy person's immune system becomes a liability in the following phases of infection.
This just isn't true. The 1918 flu mortality rate had a peak for people in their 20s (the so-called W shaped curve). But COVID-19's mortality rate is much lower for the young, like most illnesses.
A shallow dismissal based on numbers coming from a communist country that runs concentrations camps is probably not the stance you want to take. Especially when the virus out-broke in a market 300m across the street from a level 4 virology lab where the leading expert in coronaviruses was working... I would definitely take everything coming out of the CPC with a boulder of salt.
You can't argue that SARS-CoV-2 is not similar to SARS-CoV. We've seen these cytokine storms in SARS. We have less info on the 1918 Flu but there is a large amount of information suggesting it works the same way.
We simply don't have enough information to say how deadly COVID-19 is in comparison, we won't know until more cases occur outside of China.
Also, there's multiple reasons why the 1918 flu struck younger people harder:
1. The only generation with any immunity to the virus were older people who had experienced the 1889 flu pandemic (Russian Flu)
2. Most of the disease spread through the trenches and the hospitals the soldiers were sent back to.
3. It can cause your immune system to kill you via cytokine storms so it can kill healthy adults.
There is so much about this disease that is still unknown, the mere thought that it might lie dormant then flare up again like some sort of herpes infection(the mention bi-phasic but it could be much worse) is terrifying.
One possible positive if there is such a thing is that if "Wuhan Fever" becomes a pandemic that kills off a large enough portion of the global population maybe it will solve the global warming crisis or at the least slow it down.
Good point, but I would think even the current travel restrictions being imposed by various countries must result is a reduction of greenhouse gas production.
I would also imagine that there may be a reduction in holiday travel plans just out of fear of being quarantined.
Not to mention the effect a global recession would have on CO2 production.
> a pandemic that kills off a large enough portion of the global population...will solve the global warming crisis
The global warming crisis is a crisis because it has the potential to kill off a large portion of the global population. I'm not an expert or anything but a pandemic that does the same thing doesn't seem like an improvement.
You’re being downvoted, and I don’t agree with the conclusion you’re drawing or the framing of it as a positive thing, but I find it surprising how many people are uncomfortable with the notion that global warming is fundamentally about population control. I don’t think there’s a realistic long term solution to global warming that doesn’t implicitly include mass sterilization (through policy and incentives) and, as a result, what amounts to genocide. The earth can’t support an infinite amount of people, and if the natural tendency is for the earths population to grow beyond what the environment can support, that means that the right to exist on this planet will become a limited resource that’s subject to all the same economic rules as any other limited resource. Don’t forget that the main contributor to global warming is agriculture, not SUVs.
I think it’s morally cheap of people to talk about the seriousness of global warming and the necessity of solving it without thinking far out about what sort of world they’re imagining. There must be global one child policies. They must be enforced strongly. Consumption must be limited. And it’s all dependent on the idea that all governments are unified enough to enforce policies against their people that run against basic human desires, while also holding every other government accountable for enacting similar policies, and none is corrupt enough to break the rules.
I agree that global warming is real. I agree that it’s an incredible danger to humanity. But when you consider the type of world necessary to actually follow through with fixing global warming, you come to the conclusion that it’s a world that’s best ruled by a totalitarian global government where the norm is that most are robbed of basic human experiences like eating well and having children. Is that even a world worth saving?
So to those responding that this parent comment is in bad taste, I agree, but I am someone who is doesn’t believe in trying stopping global warming to begin with, so I’m allowed to not see a silver lining in mass death. Are you? If you’re not okay with my parent comments reasoning but you do believe that global warming must be stopped, I have to wonder what you think solving global warming is going to be like in a few hundred years, and if you’re prepared for the moral hazards much worse than this.
I appreciate the well thought out reply and accept that you feel my comment was in bad taste. It probably is way too soon to be discussing such things, especially while the pandemic is currently taking lives.
That being said, considering the solutions to over population of the earth that you listed, a pandemic almost seems like a righteous act of God that would be accepted by all nations.
FTA:
>"Japan has changed its strategy in combating the contagion, seeking to slow its spread and minimize the number of deaths."
In my personal opinion living and working here, this society is very slow to change and things that could greatly assist in slowing the spread, such as adopting a Work From Home policy, will only occur once it's too late. Almost no one is allowed to work from home here, even those with office/tech jobs that can completely be done remotely with no issues. In addition, workers are granted an incredibly small amount of days off, and most would rather get onto their very crowded trains and commute into the office even when unwell as opposed to taking one of their limited days off.
All that being said I'm not freaking out about it the way most people here are, but I wish companies would react a bit faster and change their work culture to accommodate the very easy things that could be done so people can limit their interactions with others when something like this is occurring. You can pretty much guarantee that one person with the virus getting onto a sardine can train during their morning commute is going to infect several other people in the process, and no amount of face masks the people here are so fond of will do anything to keep an infection at bay.
Could be that my (IT) company is an outlier, but we've been told that we should work remote and only come to the office if we absolutely must. And if we do go to work, we are to avoid riding the trains during rush hour. Business trips are all canceled.
Well that's the company I'm employed by, but the company I'm currently deployed at (until today) is an automotive company and they don't seem ready to allow much remote work to take place.
Not sure if it's already too late, but I and most of my friends who work in different tech companies here in Tokyo have been working from home since yesterday.
I’m gonna say it. We should be lucky this virus originated in China. It was bound to happen with all the globalization.
What they did with their lockdown, and welding people inside their apartment buildings, is a godsend for the rest of us.
They bought the world time to prepare, to understand the virus, and maybe develop a remedy or vaccine.
But instead of taking positive action, most people of the world just mocked the Chinese people. This was incredibly short sighted.
Imagine if this virus originated from bats in South America. Or from bats in Austin or Seattle, and with a president too incompetent to mobilize or do anything. If the mortality and infection statistics hold across the board, then a large majority of us might be dead by now.
Not surprising that a guy with a username of a company that shills for China is spouting apologist nonsense. Imagine praising a government that has not been transparent with a deadly disease not just once with COVID-19 but with SARS many years back leading to so many unnecessary deaths. Not to mention - how do you expect people to take action when the CCP actively withheld crucial information about the virus and to this day refuses to cooperate with the CDC?
Typical nonsense from Doomers like you, with nothing substantial to add to the conversation.
They’ve shared plenty of information, including the damn genome of the virus itself, immediately after it was discovered to have an unknown signature.
And what is the CDC going to do that will be helpful anyways? Are they going to send a bunch of English speaking scientists into Wuhan, to communicate with people who speak in Chinese? How will that help? They’ll need to be babysat, and provided a translator, and special accommodations, when China is in crisis mode.
People like you hold the authorities of China, to a standard that you yourself can’t even match.
Read this to get an understanding between the American CDC versus China’s CDC.
Nobody is crying here except the people of China who are being further oppressed at a crucial time like this. Pretty sure you could post some counter-arguments instead of posting unsubstantive comments that take the argument nowhere.
What has been the efficacy of antibiotics on this virus?
Normally if you get sick, and it develops into bronchitis, the doctor just prescribes you some antibiotics, the ZPack. Has that not helped in this situation?
The virus seems to be spreading much slower in Japan than in Korea or Italy. Despite having infections quite early, the number of cases is still surprisingly low, with linear growth instead of exponential. Maybe some cultural factors like self-isolation and not touching each other are at play here.
From this report from the NHK (https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200227_12/) it shows that she was discharged very quickly after being diagnosed. Compared to the other cases we've seen, IMO this points to a mistake when testing, as the people in the comments have discussed.
60 comments
[ 2.7 ms ] story [ 125 ms ] threadEdit: lots of downvotes but that was a serious question.
Great netaphor!
The article mentioned the Japanese woman is a tour bus guide, so you can imagine how serious that is.
You can’t trust anyone sick to voluntarily quarantine.
I disagree
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internment_of_Japanese_Ameri...
I've seen the panic mentality here in Hong Kong, and there's no real difference between the people who panicked, and the people who didn't. Panicking just makes it worse for everyone else.
If it is actually serious enough to avoid going near foreigners, why is international travel being allowed at all?
At 3000+, we are already inching towards 5 digits with one more city : area going bad.
The best we can hope for is to reduce exposure, slow down progression, and thus spread the development over months.
This will allow the medical services to treat the 20% critical cases, without getting overwhelmed.
The NHK said that this woman had no contact with anyone after being released. I believe that, being one of the first cases, someone botched up the testing or she was discharged too early.
>A biphasic course has been described in many patients, with an initial illness followed by improvement and then subsequent deterioration. This worsening can present as recurrent fever 4 to 7 days after initial defervescence, new chest infiltrates, respiratory failure, or watery diarrhea. In a cohort of 75 patients in Hong Kong, 85% had recurrent symptoms after initial improvement. The authors described a triphasic course with fever, myalgia early in week 1, and recurrent fever, hypoxemia, diarrhea, and shifting chest infiltrates in week 2. Twenty percent of patients progressed to ARDS during the third week of the illness. Quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) of nasopharyngeal aspirate in 14 patients with relapse showed peak viral loads occurred at day 10 after onset of symptoms, suggesting that the late deterioration may be due to the host immune response rather than to uncontrolled viral replication.
(Granted, the Japanese woman's symptoms disappeared for almost a month before reappearing.)
https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196(11)...
It's called a cytokine storm.
This is why this virus is not only dangerous to the old and weak, a healthy person's immune system becomes a liability in the following phases of infection.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4711683/
https://mmbr.asm.org/content/76/1/16
http://cytokinestorm.com/
You can't argue that SARS-CoV-2 is not similar to SARS-CoV. We've seen these cytokine storms in SARS. We have less info on the 1918 Flu but there is a large amount of information suggesting it works the same way.
We simply don't have enough information to say how deadly COVID-19 is in comparison, we won't know until more cases occur outside of China.
Also, there's multiple reasons why the 1918 flu struck younger people harder:
1. The only generation with any immunity to the virus were older people who had experienced the 1889 flu pandemic (Russian Flu)
2. Most of the disease spread through the trenches and the hospitals the soldiers were sent back to.
3. It can cause your immune system to kill you via cytokine storms so it can kill healthy adults.
1. This was a tour bus guide. Someone who had almost certainly come into contact with people from different countries.
2. She's not the first patient to relapse.
One possible positive if there is such a thing is that if "Wuhan Fever" becomes a pandemic that kills off a large enough portion of the global population maybe it will solve the global warming crisis or at the least slow it down.
I would also imagine that there may be a reduction in holiday travel plans just out of fear of being quarantined.
Not to mention the effect a global recession would have on CO2 production.
Perhaps we can have a way to reduce global climate change without mass suffering and death.
The global warming crisis is a crisis because it has the potential to kill off a large portion of the global population. I'm not an expert or anything but a pandemic that does the same thing doesn't seem like an improvement.
I think it’s morally cheap of people to talk about the seriousness of global warming and the necessity of solving it without thinking far out about what sort of world they’re imagining. There must be global one child policies. They must be enforced strongly. Consumption must be limited. And it’s all dependent on the idea that all governments are unified enough to enforce policies against their people that run against basic human desires, while also holding every other government accountable for enacting similar policies, and none is corrupt enough to break the rules.
I agree that global warming is real. I agree that it’s an incredible danger to humanity. But when you consider the type of world necessary to actually follow through with fixing global warming, you come to the conclusion that it’s a world that’s best ruled by a totalitarian global government where the norm is that most are robbed of basic human experiences like eating well and having children. Is that even a world worth saving?
So to those responding that this parent comment is in bad taste, I agree, but I am someone who is doesn’t believe in trying stopping global warming to begin with, so I’m allowed to not see a silver lining in mass death. Are you? If you’re not okay with my parent comments reasoning but you do believe that global warming must be stopped, I have to wonder what you think solving global warming is going to be like in a few hundred years, and if you’re prepared for the moral hazards much worse than this.
That being said, considering the solutions to over population of the earth that you listed, a pandemic almost seems like a righteous act of God that would be accepted by all nations.
In my personal opinion living and working here, this society is very slow to change and things that could greatly assist in slowing the spread, such as adopting a Work From Home policy, will only occur once it's too late. Almost no one is allowed to work from home here, even those with office/tech jobs that can completely be done remotely with no issues. In addition, workers are granted an incredibly small amount of days off, and most would rather get onto their very crowded trains and commute into the office even when unwell as opposed to taking one of their limited days off.
All that being said I'm not freaking out about it the way most people here are, but I wish companies would react a bit faster and change their work culture to accommodate the very easy things that could be done so people can limit their interactions with others when something like this is occurring. You can pretty much guarantee that one person with the virus getting onto a sardine can train during their morning commute is going to infect several other people in the process, and no amount of face masks the people here are so fond of will do anything to keep an infection at bay.
Well that's the company I'm employed by, but the company I'm currently deployed at (until today) is an automotive company and they don't seem ready to allow much remote work to take place.
IT as in Information Technology or Italy?
What they did with their lockdown, and welding people inside their apartment buildings, is a godsend for the rest of us.
They bought the world time to prepare, to understand the virus, and maybe develop a remedy or vaccine.
But instead of taking positive action, most people of the world just mocked the Chinese people. This was incredibly short sighted.
Imagine if this virus originated from bats in South America. Or from bats in Austin or Seattle, and with a president too incompetent to mobilize or do anything. If the mortality and infection statistics hold across the board, then a large majority of us might be dead by now.
They’ve shared plenty of information, including the damn genome of the virus itself, immediately after it was discovered to have an unknown signature.
And what is the CDC going to do that will be helpful anyways? Are they going to send a bunch of English speaking scientists into Wuhan, to communicate with people who speak in Chinese? How will that help? They’ll need to be babysat, and provided a translator, and special accommodations, when China is in crisis mode.
People like you hold the authorities of China, to a standard that you yourself can’t even match.
Read this to get an understanding between the American CDC versus China’s CDC.
https://www.quora.com/Will-the-Wuhan-virus-and-the-subsequen...
Read this from China’s CDC to see the statistics and case studies.
https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID-19.pdf
Normally if you get sick, and it develops into bronchitis, the doctor just prescribes you some antibiotics, the ZPack. Has that not helped in this situation?