full disclosure: the company i work for (the MIT Press) published a book of his ("Plagues and the Paradox of Progress: Why the World Is Getting Healthier in Worrisome Ways") last year.
edit: also, i don't this article is alarmist; it's a useful and measured piece by the former director of the CDC.
This Week in Virology is a very accessible podcast hosted by real academic virologists: http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/
As you can imagine, their main topic over the past few weeks has been the new coronavirus. They're very sober and rational about the new virus, but they're pretty clear that it's an extremely serious issue.
One issue that they raised in this week's podcast was that work on a SARS vaccine ended years ago. After the virus disappeared, there was no more commercial interest in developing a vaccine against it. Governments should have stepped in and continued research into coronavirus vaccines, but this sort of research is underfunded. The podcast hosts obviously have an interest in saying this, but given the current situation, I don't think anyone can really claim they're wrong!
Sadly, most people would rather ignore things until they have to deal with them. If more people were proactive rather than reactive, the world would be a better place.
5,000 people die in New York City every month. Well over 10,000 people die from the normal seasonal flu each year in the US alone. Also in car crashes.
Then I will repeat myself more bluntly. Any alarm that would trigger on the annual seasonal flu or on merely the standard background death rate is a meaningless alarm and is therefore alarmist, so no, 5,000 to 10,000 deaths does not clear the threshold.
COVID-19 is roughly 20x more lethal than the flu, and we have no therapies or vaccines.
Fortunately (contrary to my prior understanding) it does not spread as efficiently as the flu, and there are measures that can be taken to help contain the spread.
It's a much deadlier flu that nobody has an immunity to, that we can't vaccinate for, that China managed to contain at grievous economic cost, and that the United States is failing to contain.
That should be pretty alarming. I understand that a 20-something-year-old with no medical conditions may not give a damn about this sort of thing, but as a public health problem, this one is incredibly serious.
What scares me the most about this coronavirus are infected people testing negative multiple days in a row only to test positive later. There are two explanations:
1. The diagnostic accuracy of the current tests is too low or
2. Some people do not clear the virus, their symptoms simply resolve, but this leaves open the potential for a flare-up later in life.
Either scenario is bad, and we simply don't have enough information about the virus yet.
Given how little is currently known about the virus, I think drastic steps including quarantining US cities are warranted. So far, only China appears to have implemented a successful quarantine. Hell, the Diamond Princess was a disaster, showing how hard it is to contain the virus. I think as a society we need to accept drastic measures to stop the spread of the virus. This will slow the spread of the virus, buying us time to develop countermeasures like vaccines.
AFAIK there are different tests with varying accuracies. Those with low accuracy tend to be ran multiple times to help. Despite having to run multiple tests, capacity for these low accuracy tests is much higher than the tests the CDC attempted to distribute, and these are the types of tests countries with a huge number already tested have tended to use.
Testing by local hospitals and universities in the USA has also been held up by FDA regulations that only recently (last week) were waived.
The USA is behind this thing by a long shot. We are thinking about stuff now that we should have thought about at least a month ago. Another example is the federal government contemplating covering tests when insurance won't. The time to contemplate this was months ago, not today. This should have been decided, at the very latest, weeks ago so it could be rolled out at the proper time.
> I think drastic steps including quarantining US cities are warranted
Do you expect whole cities, such as Seattle and San Francisco to be able to survive when people are not allowed to go to work? People such as grocery store workers, restaurant employees, Uber drivers, and so on?
Who will pay their rent?
The United States, at present, is not prepared, at all, for handling a month-long quarantine of any major city. The poor people in that city will suffer, hard, and the fall out will be worse than the 2% death rate in those cities.
I think the 2% death rate is only when your healthcare system isn't completely overwhelmed and you have enough mechanical ventilators for the ~20% of cases that need them.
I read the other day that there was a difference in virus shedding throughout the body. Orally, no virus might be shedding for an oral swab to come up positive, but the same patient might test positive with anal swabs taken the same time.
So you're telling us the DowJones is down 4,000 this week because of a sickness with a death rate of 2.3%...are you sure it is not something else?
Global stock markets have lost $6 trillion in value in six days. It possibly because Soros, Putin, and others are moving money out of the US so that it cannot be taken in lawsuits resulting from their involvement in the story below. Unless of course you believe it is because of COVID19 aka Coronavirus, a sickness with a 2.3% death rate. See below:
Attorney General Barr is not resigning; not before President Trump does. Barr is the same as Mueller,Pelosi,Schiff, & Nadler: feign opposition to cover the true motive of obstruction to keep Trump in power. Supreme Court Justice Alito & FBI Deputy Director Wray also on board. See latest updates
"Impeachment" Is A Diversion And Delay - Part II: Blocking of the "impeachment" witnesses was collusion planned before the new year. Listen to an FBI agent's disclosure from January 1, 2O2O here. The President was to resign late summer securing election for DNC. See latest updates.
Here is the zip file, which was also made available in the 3Jan2O2O update. The file within is VID_20200101_201948.mp3. Turn up the volume and put on headphones.
The dialogue about the impeachment starts near the beginning. Having Biden in the White House is as good as Trump or anyone else in their organization. Obviously Schiff and Nadler pledged their allegiance to the organization by raping boys on the record, with their task being to drag out an impeachment designed to obstruct and delay any real efforts to remove the President, thus keeping Trump in power. The witness blocking was to cause an apparent uproar delaying things with legal actions until late Summer. Soon after, the President would resign, leaving any other candidate with not enough time or support to compete with an opportunistic Biden, who is as good as Trump or any other Illuminati friendly politician in the Presidency.
\Wag The Dog: first was feigned impeachment hearings meant to obstruct, now an attack on Iranians in Iraq. Here is what they are trying to distract from & cover up to retain power. $100+ billion in bribes to the highest offices in this country. 815+ deaths from child rapes to prove loyalty!
See the latest PDF updates: FBI Director Wray, AG Barr, SoD Shanahan, & SoS Pompeo each raped boys and were paid billions in bribes for a Soros & Koch funded child rape org. So did Trump & his "impeachment" team Nadler,Schiff,Mueller.So did media moguls Redstone,Murdoch,Moonves. What are they trying to set up? Who can arrest them since they are all bribed and in on it ?
Their strategy to stay in every office and obstruct until forced to leave no matter what. Feigning impeachment: see page 13O. Hoiohiuhrfe, jknbjkevew, vrmnowenbgewrg. port.
\\if;Download the video/audio file, put on headphones and turn up the volume. You will hear these people committing these crimes. Audio was broadcast into my apartment by outdated surveillance equipment illegally embedded within my walls. This very same technology was being used to broadcast me to the internet for five years without my consent. I own this foota...
Reports have just come out that Spain has had its first death from this virus. The really significant news is that this death occurred on February 13th - before any cases were reported in Spain at all. This is very concerning.
I've been following MEDCram¹ on YouTube recently. It's a medical channel for students by doctors I believe, but currently it's all about COVID-19 obviously². It often speaks to other medical practitionners.
The quality of information on such a channel (prob. not the only one, just my own serendipity) is outstanding compared to any 'mainstream' media out there — with good reason, it's not sexy to downplay mass hysteria or talk about actual RNA mechanisms with schematics.
Here's my point, using an image: when the boat is leaking, I stick with the guy who built the boat (and help him if that's the right thing to do); while the poets and dramaturges aboard make noise for the sheep, eventually the fish if we only listened to them.
Reality ≠ fiction.
Global information ≠ mainstream news (sad but true, whether medical or financial or else).
27 comments
[ 1.7 ms ] story [ 44.9 ms ] threadfull disclosure: the company i work for (the MIT Press) published a book of his ("Plagues and the Paradox of Progress: Why the World Is Getting Healthier in Worrisome Ways") last year.
edit: also, i don't this article is alarmist; it's a useful and measured piece by the former director of the CDC.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
It's...sobering.
As you can imagine, their main topic over the past few weeks has been the new coronavirus. They're very sober and rational about the new virus, but they're pretty clear that it's an extremely serious issue.
One issue that they raised in this week's podcast was that work on a SARS vaccine ended years ago. After the virus disappeared, there was no more commercial interest in developing a vaccine against it. Governments should have stepped in and continued research into coronavirus vaccines, but this sort of research is underfunded. The podcast hosts obviously have an interest in saying this, but given the current situation, I don't think anyone can really claim they're wrong!
COVID-19 is roughly 20x more lethal than the flu, and we have no therapies or vaccines.
Fortunately (contrary to my prior understanding) it does not spread as efficiently as the flu, and there are measures that can be taken to help contain the spread.
Would be interesting to know how it is determined that it does not spread as efficiently as the flu.
That should be pretty alarming. I understand that a 20-something-year-old with no medical conditions may not give a damn about this sort of thing, but as a public health problem, this one is incredibly serious.
1. The diagnostic accuracy of the current tests is too low or
2. Some people do not clear the virus, their symptoms simply resolve, but this leaves open the potential for a flare-up later in life.
Either scenario is bad, and we simply don't have enough information about the virus yet.
Given how little is currently known about the virus, I think drastic steps including quarantining US cities are warranted. So far, only China appears to have implemented a successful quarantine. Hell, the Diamond Princess was a disaster, showing how hard it is to contain the virus. I think as a society we need to accept drastic measures to stop the spread of the virus. This will slow the spread of the virus, buying us time to develop countermeasures like vaccines.
Testing by local hospitals and universities in the USA has also been held up by FDA regulations that only recently (last week) were waived.
The USA is behind this thing by a long shot. We are thinking about stuff now that we should have thought about at least a month ago. Another example is the federal government contemplating covering tests when insurance won't. The time to contemplate this was months ago, not today. This should have been decided, at the very latest, weeks ago so it could be rolled out at the proper time.
Do you expect whole cities, such as Seattle and San Francisco to be able to survive when people are not allowed to go to work? People such as grocery store workers, restaurant employees, Uber drivers, and so on?
Who will pay their rent?
The United States, at present, is not prepared, at all, for handling a month-long quarantine of any major city. The poor people in that city will suffer, hard, and the fall out will be worse than the 2% death rate in those cities.
Global stock markets have lost $6 trillion in value in six days. It possibly because Soros, Putin, and others are moving money out of the US so that it cannot be taken in lawsuits resulting from their involvement in the story below. Unless of course you believe it is because of COVID19 aka Coronavirus, a sickness with a 2.3% death rate. See below:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...
Attorney General Barr is not resigning; not before President Trump does. Barr is the same as Mueller,Pelosi,Schiff, & Nadler: feign opposition to cover the true motive of obstruction to keep Trump in power. Supreme Court Justice Alito & FBI Deputy Director Wray also on board. See latest updates
"Impeachment" Is A Diversion And Delay - Part II: Blocking of the "impeachment" witnesses was collusion planned before the new year. Listen to an FBI agent's disclosure from January 1, 2O2O here. The President was to resign late summer securing election for DNC. See latest updates.
Here is the zip file, which was also made available in the 3Jan2O2O update. The file within is VID_20200101_201948.mp3. Turn up the volume and put on headphones.
BB10Mp3Footage31Dec1Jan.zip 122.4mb
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IXOOhQhHybwky8Z5pGdr9ZXhWpI...
The dialogue about the impeachment starts near the beginning. Having Biden in the White House is as good as Trump or anyone else in their organization. Obviously Schiff and Nadler pledged their allegiance to the organization by raping boys on the record, with their task being to drag out an impeachment designed to obstruct and delay any real efforts to remove the President, thus keeping Trump in power. The witness blocking was to cause an apparent uproar delaying things with legal actions until late Summer. Soon after, the President would resign, leaving any other candidate with not enough time or support to compete with an opportunistic Biden, who is as good as Trump or any other Illuminati friendly politician in the Presidency.
172 page PDF [last update: March|3|2O2O]:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W...
Previously reported:
\Wag The Dog: first was feigned impeachment hearings meant to obstruct, now an attack on Iranians in Iraq. Here is what they are trying to distract from & cover up to retain power. $100+ billion in bribes to the highest offices in this country. 815+ deaths from child rapes to prove loyalty!
See the latest PDF updates: FBI Director Wray, AG Barr, SoD Shanahan, & SoS Pompeo each raped boys and were paid billions in bribes for a Soros & Koch funded child rape org. So did Trump & his "impeachment" team Nadler,Schiff,Mueller.So did media moguls Redstone,Murdoch,Moonves. What are they trying to set up? Who can arrest them since they are all bribed and in on it ?
Their strategy to stay in every office and obstruct until forced to leave no matter what. Feigning impeachment: see page 13O. Hoiohiuhrfe, jknbjkevew, vrmnowenbgewrg. port.
\\if;Download the video/audio file, put on headphones and turn up the volume. You will hear these people committing these crimes. Audio was broadcast into my apartment by outdated surveillance equipment illegally embedded within my walls. This very same technology was being used to broadcast me to the internet for five years without my consent. I own this foota...
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-spain-dea...
The quality of information on such a channel (prob. not the only one, just my own serendipity) is outstanding compared to any 'mainstream' media out there — with good reason, it's not sexy to downplay mass hysteria or talk about actual RNA mechanisms with schematics.
Here's my point, using an image: when the boat is leaking, I stick with the guy who built the boat (and help him if that's the right thing to do); while the poets and dramaturges aboard make noise for the sheep, eventually the fish if we only listened to them.
Reality ≠ fiction.
Global information ≠ mainstream news (sad but true, whether medical or financial or else).
[1]: channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos
[2]: COVID-19 updates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLQ_IRFkDInv-NvRRUN0aq...