And of course, railings are there for a reason. Which is easy to find out, if you ever experience some vertigo, some muscle or back problems or just get a bit older :p
Apply it on your fingers, and you'll want to avoid touching your mouth at any cost.
On a side note, so many buildings still put doors at the entrance of toilets forcing you to touch the door right after cleaning your hands (or to use a napkin to touch the handle).
Rather than covering everything with dirt, you just have to make everyone believe it. In HK, this has been quite successful. Pretty much everyone refuses to touch the buttons on an elevator, handrails on escalators or the MTR etc.
The only practical takeaway from these suggestions IMO is that "you might still derive great personal benefit from imagining them so covered".
In the real world, there are a few things that could help prevent these outbreaks from bringing the whole of society to a grinding standstill, namely the invention of something that kills targeted viruses directly (thought I read something along those lines a while back). And/or the insight that the way we have constructed modern society is simply conducive to pandemic outbreaks.
The tendency for people to work from home, be schooled from home and getting goods delivered home should not be viewed as a desperate measure, instead it is the way we probably will organize our lives moving forwards, and get a lot of life standard improvements while at it. Not to mention the time and energy we would save by bringing commutes down to a bare minimum.
Some people suggested using copper handles in hospitals, since it has antimicrobial properties. I think the practical problem was that you need to clear the oxidized parts or it doesn't work. There were some other suggested materials too.
Probably a lot better and sounds good. Advantage to disinfectants is that we probably would have fewer problems with resistant germs. In my country everything is meticulously disinfected in hospitals, but many have problems with the norovirus which is quite resistant. Not a too dangerous disease on its own, but in hospitals it is a serious problem that can cost lives.
The info from China shows that it spreads primarily through inhaling droplets, not through touching surfaces.
Which is why I expect the epidemic to be way way worse outside of Asia, since in the West people don't wear masks and are actively discouraged by the health authorities.
'Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.'
I'm an environmental engineer with some experience in drinking water treatment.
I doubt it's in the drinking water. One of the oldest drinking water treatment methods would remove the virus: slow-sand filtration. Most places in China would at least use this, and South Korea is likely using more advanced technology.
I studied drinking water treatment in school and worked on a treatment plant design in Ecuador, so I do not have professional experience inside the current modern industry. But as far as I know slow-sand filtration and it's variants are still commonly used. Most of the improvements come from additional processes.
Improvements on slow-sand filtration are from additional pre-treatment methods, disinfection, more advanced filtration media like activated charcoal, and additional stages of filtration using a variety of media. Some high tech treatment plants are using biological membranes for wastewater-to-drinking-water treatment, but that's quite rare as far as I know.
The virus particles would be filtered out at the top layer of the sand filter, where a layer of microbes grow. This layer is referred to as the schmutzdecke. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schmutzdecke
Most of the filtering action happens in that layer. Viruses have no problem getting past sand particles.
So now we're supposed to have a fear of touching things as well as all the other neuroses programmed into us in modern life? I need to invest in some mental health startups.
What boggles me is why modern buildings still have so many manual doors with handles. At least in the building I work in, you could easily eliminate a ton of doors and not reduce access control flexibility. The rest could be made automatic with some keycard authentication.
I got sick 12 times my first year living in a city again. I got pretty paranoid after that and now I mentally have a "my hands are infected" notion as soon as I touch something outside the house. The very first thing I do upon entering my apartment or a restaurant is to wash them. Unfortunately I still touch my face sometimes while my hands are potentially dirty, I need to be more careful about that.
I've got sick a lot less often since implementing that, maybe once a year now on average.
It could also be because your immune system got used to the change in environment.
I honestly don’t understand the particular level of fear around COVID-19 when compared to other flu outbreaks. Can anyone point me to a concise explanation? I mean, I get that it’s a new virus we’ve never seen before, but what distinctly sets it apart? Everything I’ve read says that it affects older people and those with a compromised immune system the worst, which is just like any flu. Is it mostly that we’re worried about what we don’t know that we don’t know? Not trying to be dismissive, I just feel like I’m missing something. I don’t remember the panic around swine flu or bird flu being like this.
Also does anyone know why people are panic-buying toilet paper in my country?
Normal flu is about 0.005%, estimates on this are about 1%, assuming that your country can rapidly expand its Intensive Care Units to handle the influx. R is estimated between 2-6, evidence in the last 2 weeks from Europe suggests the higher end of that scale. It is spreading very rapidly.
Although we can´t really trust the figures from China, we know that whatever was happening in Wuhan in early December/January was sufficiently bad for them to put half the country under strict quarantine. Even a bad flu season, would not have triggered that kind of reaction.
For one, fear is irrational. It is based on a perception of threat and we as humans do it in many ways. One way is to see that others are afraid and therefore we should too. To add to this, the fear is not entirely unfounded. Estimates of the fatality are between 1% to 4%. No proper case fatality statistics can be computed as the epidemic is not over/have not gone long enough yet. At 1%, this is already 10 times the fatality rate of the seasonal flu so no, this is not just a bad flu season. This is an exceptionally bad flu season.
The reason I think countries are still trying to contain it is because if we allow the this flu strain to become seasonal because of lack of containment, it becomes an ongoing price that we have to pay each year. Within each new strain of flu that we encounter in the future, if we successively fail to contain each one, there will be many more strains of flu seasonally. Of course， a technological breakthrough may alter such a course.
COVID-19 mortality is about one order of magnitude higher than that of a regular flu, for every age group. That's a lot. And R0 is higher. And there is no vaccine. And the US botched the response with its stupid "don't test, don't tell" policy.
I estimate my probability of dying from COVID-19 this year to be higher than from all other reasons combined, and I'm not that old yet.
Case fatality rate for swine flu was around 0.02%[1]. There's still a lot of uncertainty around 2019-nCoV, but most estimates appear to be closer to 1-2%.
You're not wrong in that old and sick people are the affected the most, but it's significantly worse compared to e.g. Influenza[2].
Mortality-wise it looks to be around 20x worse than flu, and easy to spread before outward symptoms manifest. There's no vaccine, so the usual partial herd immunity isn't present, and no confirmed treatments yet beyond trying to help your own immune system. As you say, it will probably be mild for most people who catch it (but who wants to risk "probably"), but certainly worse if you're not in good shape.
Panic buying is just like a rush on the bank; if everyone buys more than usual there will be a temporary shortage of stock, and no-one wants to be caught short on the loo. People are anticipating needing to self-quarantine for 2+ weeks (probably more if you need to isolate your whole family), but without knowing which two weeks the timer starts. And people are probably vaguely aware that there will be a supply crunch in a few months because China's manufacturing lines have been slowed and the knock on effects haven't fed through yet.
We're just trying to slow the spread so not all the vulnerable population - there's a large number, end up in the hospital simultaneously.
If that happens, then everyone is more likely to die when they need the hospital for unrelated reasons and can't get treated because its doors are shut.
You may be young and healthy and not be concerned, but if you're spreading it around carelessly you're facilitating the nightmare scenario of a collapsing healthcare system.
> I honestly don’t understand the particular level of fear around COVID-19 when compared to other flu outbreaks.
I don’t think it has anything to do with the mortality of this particular one. The problem here is that about 10% of the patients require ICU and potentially mechanical ventilation. This, togerther with the short in supply of desinfection and sanitizsrs, poses the risk that other ilnesses can’t be treated. People don’t die because of covid-19 infection. People die because of complications because the immune system is destabilised and usually curable deaseses become mortal because: there are no drugs, no protection, no staff, too many people require treatment at once.
51 comments
[ 3.1 ms ] story [ 109 ms ] threadI will not want to be the guy that dies of a broken neck tumbling down the stairs because I didn't want to touch the hand rail.
Last year I twisted my ankle and for a few days the only way I could use flight of stairs was to held onto the rails.
Apply it on your fingers, and you'll want to avoid touching your mouth at any cost.
On a side note, so many buildings still put doors at the entrance of toilets forcing you to touch the door right after cleaning your hands (or to use a napkin to touch the handle).
In the real world, there are a few things that could help prevent these outbreaks from bringing the whole of society to a grinding standstill, namely the invention of something that kills targeted viruses directly (thought I read something along those lines a while back). And/or the insight that the way we have constructed modern society is simply conducive to pandemic outbreaks.
The tendency for people to work from home, be schooled from home and getting goods delivered home should not be viewed as a desperate measure, instead it is the way we probably will organize our lives moving forwards, and get a lot of life standard improvements while at it. Not to mention the time and energy we would save by bringing commutes down to a bare minimum.
The spread of a disease throughout the hospital is visualized as a green slime passed on between people.
How To Encourage Safer Driving
Instead of an airbag on the steering wheel, put a large 10 inch spike on it. Pointed right at your head.
On a lighter note, people seem to adapt their behavior just fine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgYL4rZC0v8
Edit: Photo: http://oirase.annexia.org/tmp/20200307_141218_HDR.jpg And yes, thanks anonymous previous householder for inexplicably moving the doorknob about a quarter of an inch to the left.
Which is why I expect the epidemic to be way way worse outside of Asia, since in the West people don't wear masks and are actively discouraged by the health authorities.
'Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.'
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-...
[Edit: however, I could see both of you being right with this quote]
I guess, we'll see soon enough how Italy is doing.
FWIW in Switzerland, the authorities recommend "social distancing". https://foph-coronavirus.ch/
I have also read of the virus being detected in feces.
Is it possible the virus is being spread via the water supply?
The waste treatment plants dump into the river, as well as septic runoff, and humans just deciding to defecate in or near the rivers.
Additionally, if it is possible for dogs to carry the virus, I assume it could be excreted via canine feces, as well.
If the water treatment plants are also using the river as the source of water, what prevents the virus from spreading this way?
Right, but Chlorine is only effective against certain types of virii.
Some municipalities instead use some sort of chloramine, or both.
In, addition, neither of these is effective on some virii, so UV is used also.
I am no expert, but from what I have read so far, depending on the virus, the above solutions differ in effectiveness.
I doubt it's in the drinking water. One of the oldest drinking water treatment methods would remove the virus: slow-sand filtration. Most places in China would at least use this, and South Korea is likely using more advanced technology.
What do you consider ‘advanced technology’?
Improvements on slow-sand filtration are from additional pre-treatment methods, disinfection, more advanced filtration media like activated charcoal, and additional stages of filtration using a variety of media. Some high tech treatment plants are using biological membranes for wastewater-to-drinking-water treatment, but that's quite rare as far as I know.
Here's a decent primer of the commonly used processes: https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/drinking/public/water_treat...
I have no clue on how it works, so any insight is appreciated.
Most of the filtering action happens in that layer. Viruses have no problem getting past sand particles.
I also found this report, which may be of interest, from the University of Arizona in 2008 for Coronavirus survival in water and wastewater:
https://west.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/data/Gundy2008_...
10 days or more in water, and 2 to 4 days in wastewater.
My local municipality only uses chlorine, so I am a bit concerned.
We had our own sand filtration system, but ‘decided’ to instead use the town next-door’s system, instead.
I've got sick a lot less often since implementing that, maybe once a year now on average.
I honestly don’t understand the particular level of fear around COVID-19 when compared to other flu outbreaks. Can anyone point me to a concise explanation? I mean, I get that it’s a new virus we’ve never seen before, but what distinctly sets it apart? Everything I’ve read says that it affects older people and those with a compromised immune system the worst, which is just like any flu. Is it mostly that we’re worried about what we don’t know that we don’t know? Not trying to be dismissive, I just feel like I’m missing something. I don’t remember the panic around swine flu or bird flu being like this.
Also does anyone know why people are panic-buying toilet paper in my country?
Normal flu is about 0.005%, estimates on this are about 1%, assuming that your country can rapidly expand its Intensive Care Units to handle the influx. R is estimated between 2-6, evidence in the last 2 weeks from Europe suggests the higher end of that scale. It is spreading very rapidly.
Although we can´t really trust the figures from China, we know that whatever was happening in Wuhan in early December/January was sufficiently bad for them to put half the country under strict quarantine. Even a bad flu season, would not have triggered that kind of reaction.
The reason I think countries are still trying to contain it is because if we allow the this flu strain to become seasonal because of lack of containment, it becomes an ongoing price that we have to pay each year. Within each new strain of flu that we encounter in the future, if we successively fail to contain each one, there will be many more strains of flu seasonally. Of course， a technological breakthrough may alter such a course.
I estimate my probability of dying from COVID-19 this year to be higher than from all other reasons combined, and I'm not that old yet.
You're not wrong in that old and sick people are the affected the most, but it's significantly worse compared to e.g. Influenza[2].
[1]: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...
[2]: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jbloom/CoV_vs_flu_CFR/mast...
Panic buying is just like a rush on the bank; if everyone buys more than usual there will be a temporary shortage of stock, and no-one wants to be caught short on the loo. People are anticipating needing to self-quarantine for 2+ weeks (probably more if you need to isolate your whole family), but without knowing which two weeks the timer starts. And people are probably vaguely aware that there will be a supply crunch in a few months because China's manufacturing lines have been slowed and the knock on effects haven't fed through yet.
If that happens, then everyone is more likely to die when they need the hospital for unrelated reasons and can't get treated because its doors are shut.
You may be young and healthy and not be concerned, but if you're spreading it around carelessly you're facilitating the nightmare scenario of a collapsing healthcare system.
I don’t think it has anything to do with the mortality of this particular one. The problem here is that about 10% of the patients require ICU and potentially mechanical ventilation. This, togerther with the short in supply of desinfection and sanitizsrs, poses the risk that other ilnesses can’t be treated. People don’t die because of covid-19 infection. People die because of complications because the immune system is destabilised and usually curable deaseses become mortal because: there are no drugs, no protection, no staff, too many people require treatment at once.
The effort to do that could instead be put toward continually disinfecting the surface which would provide actual benefit.