In simplest possible SIR model that takes into account the growing recovered and immune, (1 − 1/R0) of the population gets infected. R0 is the reproduction rate.
R0 | % of population
----------------
2.5 60%
2.0 50%
1.5 30%
The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions. There is no reason to assume it's constant or same in different countries and cultures.
In countries where sanitation is an issue will the infection rate ever slow and when people from countries who have it controlled travel to those countries does it restart ?
I think I have more questions now that I watched the video than I do answers :)
In modern times there is plenty of transportation and shuffling in crowded countries with poor sanitation. Remember it only takes a tiny bit of travel to spread a virus far and wide. I would predict things will get very bad in many parts of Latin America, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia.
> The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions.
In looking at the outbreak gripping Italy, it seems like hard quarantine is the most basic precaution, and perhaps we should be taking it before the first hundreds of people die in each of our countries.
I am not worried about the economy as in I need to get rich ( Im not close) but realistically if no one is making money the impact of folks being out of work and unable to buy food starts to weigh in.
The simple fact most countries are interdependent ( see : Toilet paper) is a real issue.
In the context of this post: the kind of quarantine where nobody is allowed to venture far from their homes.
Where goods can't travel from where they are made to where they could be sold, or worse can't be made because nobody is allowed to leave home to go make them.
Where we isolate each country from the others, each state/province/region, each everywhere.
Where commerce is effectively ended due to the inability of people to participate in it.
Just a small sampling but most of my neighbors are retired and they think it's a MSM scare tactic to drum up views. Some say it's no worse than the flu and then you have the Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax.
> Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax
Hard to know exactly what you are referring to here but it sounds like you are spreading more misinformation. We all need to get better at communicating. I swear that half of public discussion these days is based on fictional situations and not reality.
1) Democrats accused Trump of mishandling COVID-19.
2) Trump labeled the *criticism* as another "hoax" about his presidency/competency.
3) Democrats react to 2) and accuse Trump of labeling COVID-19 a "hoax".
4) Bipartisan collection of journalist pointed out that 3) is bogus and 2) is what was said.
5) hurrdurr2's comment appears to be a variation of 3) relative to 2).
6) this comment is an attempt to point out this history and correct the record similar to 4)
I'm taking no stance here on 1) as it really depends what specific criticism is being evaluated. Some of it was/is reasonable and some of it was/is ill-founded.
I have no idea what exactly motivated all the bullshit associated with 3) but it was some combination or poor reading comprehension, slopping rumor mongering, or disgusting politicization of a major public health crisis.
WRT 1) I think the fact the CDC hasn't had enough testing capability–as well as far too strict requirements surrounding the tests, perhaps because of their inadequate capabilities—is enough of a black mark.
Sure but 3) is just bullshit that just confuses everything for no valid reason. It is distracting dangerous noise that increases the anxiety of the public for no good reason.
So what? Why are you trying to assess the relative harm of a fabrication with anything at all? 3) is just nonsense that distracts from real discussion and yet there are people here defending it. I just don't understand.
What I'm saying is don't bother with it; it will die on its own. You're the one bringing that discussion to life here; I only intended to comment on the CDC's response, I didn't intend to involve whatever the "Democrats" said. (Scare quotes because you can't coalesce them as one being)
I'm just repeating what I was told when I chatted with some neighbors. Some are Trump supporters and they said it's a hoax. Anecdotal so take it as you will. Not sure why my comment warranted such a longwinded defensive reply.
It could have been cognitive dissonance. Certain segments of the population couldn't possibly be dismissing this virus as no worse than the flu, could they?
(3) is kind of a strawman. No one actually thinks Donald Trump said the virus itself is a hoax. In context the "hoax" is referring to the claims about the seriousness of the virus and the government response to it.
And there are definitely Trump supporters calling the situation a hoax, as in, "this is a hoax to blow up the stock market and make Trump look bad, don't you know that more people die of the flu every year?".
False. We’re a bunch of mostly self centered individualist who don’t like being told what to do and don’t trust facts, ideas, opinions, or people that contradict our preconceived notions.
Problem is: when what authorities tell you is to distance yourself for others, a paranoid lunatic will obviously smell a conspiracy and do the exact opposite.
China is in a different phase where it seems they have surpressed it rather than contained it. which means if they loosen up the lock down it could revert. It’s also an economic disaster that are trying contain from all the lock down.
Suppressed means there is continued transmission, contained means that’s stopped. Rabies is suppressed with a continuing threat from wild animal populations. The recent Ebola virus outbreak on the other hand is an example of containment in action, with zero active cases at this point.
The only long term success for suppression is from a vaccine. Contained on the other hand means every infected person can gain immunity and the virus would then run out of new hosts.
Both of those subs are incredibly tinfoily and panicky. Honestly reddit is the worst. And BI is right that they are doing the same as always, just consiparcy things
/r/Coronavirus used to have some info on it. But yeah, for the past week+ (since Reddit began linking it on the front page, maybe?) every other article has been "the US isn't testing enough", and the comments of every article have degenerated into "Trump is literally evil, this is all being done for the benefit of corporations, he just wants to protect the stock market" which is really not helpful.
It might (or might not) be accurate, but that's kinda irrelevant.
Agreed, Reddit is cancer. Reactionary hive mind internet at its worst.
One of the biggest problems with Reddit is that Americans go on boards like /r/politics or in this case /r/Coronavirus, see extreme hostility towards America and Trump and assume that this hostility is all coming from Americans themselves, when really a substantial number of Reddit users (and users elsewhere on the Internet) are not American.
Not being Americans, their hostility comes more from predisposed bias against Trump and America than a careful analysis of what's best for America.
Reddit is 50% American, and overwhelmingly skews young. It isn't surprising that it has a "predisposed bias" against Trump: The young aren't really a key Trump demographic (Trump has a >67% unfavorability rating among those under 40).
Indeed, Trump's statist media is Fox News that has an average viewer ago of 68 years old (who, ironically, will be the bulk of the victims of COVID-19).
Though anyone with even the slightest hint of morality or intellectual sincerity has a predisposed bias against Trump. He has pushed it way beyond politics, and now it's whether you're a very stupid, terrible person or not.
I’m not a fan of the man, but frankly, so many on the other side make him look like a saint that I struggle to understand the outpouring of hate against him. And it’s true Fox is just an extension of the Republican Party, but so likewise are CNN, MSNBC and (basically every other major news site) extensions of the Democratic Party. In fact I think that’s why Fox News was created, to have at least one outlet of propaganda for the Republicans given everything else was propaganda for the Democrats. The big take away from that though is that all major media is just official propaganda for a political party.
What kills me though is the “if you disagree with me politically you’re obviously just a racist/homophobe/etc. That social justice agenda has to stop. And reddit is prime real estate for where they congregate. I watched a mass reddit mob harass anyone who claimed an accusation from a woman shouldn’t be automatically taken as fact, and that women NEVER lie and you are guilty the moment you are accused, and you’re a “horrible human being” if you even dare to think a single woman could EVER possibly lie when accusing someone.
The internet has done a lot of good, but it’s become Ground Zero for extremist ideology like that to run rampant.
The thing is Trump isn't even particularly relevant to the vast majority of the stories, even when it's the federal govt screwing up. But reddit posters are constantly making it about him. The moderators do try to prevent the worst of political posting to their credit.
What's so ironic about foxnews viewers being victims? They aren't panicking appropriately enough or something? I just glanced at their website and it didn't seem particularly slanted on the topic. Looks like they have multiple coronavirus stories coming out every hour. One can easily freak out if so inclined.
"What's so ironic about foxnews viewers being victims?"
Trump has played down the potential of this and has been primarily concerned about keeping the stock market frothing and the counts artificially low. He also called it a hoax, the guy he just gave the presidential medal called it the common cold, he is an anti-vaxxer, etc. His entire administration has to spend their day doing absurd deflection to tell you how great the clothes are that the empower is wearing and to continually reframe everything to make whatever idiotic thing Trump said last not seem quite as stupid.
The surgeon general - a fit man in his 40s - just went on TV to announce that Trump — a sedentary obese fast food fanatic in his 70s — is fitter than him. We've seen a parade of these absolutely depraved displays, where people who once were credible completely debase themselves to ensure the emporer's ego is massaged.
These are extraordinary times and it is ironic that Trump’s hubris, ego, anti-intellectualism, and his circle of profoundly unqualified rats are going to hit the demographic that put him in power the hardest.
And every time Trump talks, the market collapses. He is very close to the worst possible person to be in that position during a crisis.
Reddit is clearly just self-hating Americans, mostly kids. I guess you assume no American would spend so much time writing anti-Trump comments on r/politics?
I think the real issue is that you go to a place like r/politics or r/vancouver or r/bitcoin and think it's some canonical forum with some semblance of fairness but it's really just someone's little world with its own rules and agenda.
But you can't simply start your own subreddit because you're now r/vancouver2, r/TrueVancouver, or whatever and it can never get the same traction just because it's not the official-looking r/vancouver anymore.
I think there are a lot of Americans writing anti-Trump comments on Reddit, but I think the numbers are boosted by non Americans doing the same thing. It artificially inflates the number of anti Trump posters.
Yup. You can't think of Reddit as a single forum. A subreddit is a community. By size, shape and behavior, Reddit itself is a privately owned Web inside the public Web, with its own, centrally controlled DNS.
Seattle is about 2 weeks behind Lombardy. The Bay Area maybe 3 weeks behind. Everywhere in the US is going to be in that situation in 2 months at most, unless something very dramatic changes ASAP.
The kinds of measures being taken in the US are grossly inadequate for this challenge: leaders and some media outlets continue to downplay risks, residents continue to blithely go about their everyday lives, large gatherings like church meetings and sporting events continue as usual, the CDC/FDA is still blocking sufficient testing around the country, hospitals and medical workers are not being sufficiently trained and prepared, and the supply of personal protective gear and ICU beds is not going to suffice.
We have squandered 4–6 weeks of preparation for this crisis, and hundreds of thousands of people in the US may die as a result, with others experiencing permanent lung damage.
China has shown that this virus can be managed if the number of patients stays low enough that infections are discovered early and patients are treated aggressively with antivirals, supplemental oxygen as soon as blood oxygen starts to drop, mechanical ventilators for severe cases, etc. People’s immune systems generally do fight this virus off if we can keep them breathing for long enough. But that depends on having enough hospital capacity.
If everyone stays complacent and continues to mingle until there are hundreds of local deaths in each area it’s going to be a disaster.
Edit 2: To everyone here: If you have what seems like a minor cold, even if you are a young adult, please stay away from people and don’t spread it. What is 2 weeks of minor cough and sore throat for you might become severe pneumonia requiring hospitalization for your parent or neighbor or coworker. If anyone in the family gets a minor cold, please keep your kids out of school. Etc.
I had an interesting experience - my local hospital (which is actually a very good medical hospital). Has already called in every at risk (which I am) person and had them do a check up (and in my case an x-ray).
They also have already stock piled masks and additional resources. The medical staff in the area are similarly mentally preparing, schools are prepping for the shutdown (at home school).
I wouldn’t say the US is doing nothing, this is rural Illinois. There just isn’t much to do here until it’s a problem. But as soon as we get a few test positives schools are planning shutdown (I’m assuming gyms will be used for patients as necessary).
> If anyone in the family gets a minor cold, please keep your kids out of school. Etc.
Unfortunately this is effectively "let them eat cake" for many people.
Keeping kids out of school means not going to work. Not going to work means not having money to pay the bills, and very possibly losing your job.
In China, where the state has basically total control, things like this can be done. In the US, it's going to be a tough sell for an awful lot of people.
Ask any taxpayer and they will tell you that the US also has total control. I get your point about not having the right to force people to do things (ie people ignoring mandatory hurricane evacuation orders) but they do have the power to make it such that the people who do want to stay home but can’t due to financial reasons can. If there were the will for it.
I would feel a lot more comfortable if the USA had a testing setup like South Korea (where they have performed something like 500 times as many tests per capita as the USA, and then done aggressive isolation and contact tracing for positive cases).
If it were up to me the federal government and state and local governments would be closing schools, closing nursing homes to visitors, canceling church services and sporting events, figuring out how to make transportation less risky, closing restaurants and bars to customers and drafting those workers to make deliverable prepared meals instead, recruiting childless people aged 15–40 into temporary (paid) public service jobs, doing everything possible to guarantee sufficient supply of protective equipment, taking every roadblock out from researching antiviral drugs for treating positive cases, etc.
Governments should be figuring out how to guarantee anyone with untested minor colds to stay home from work without losing pay until they can be tested; figuring out how to temporarily relieve rent, loan payments, and taxes for people quarantined or with jobs in temporarily affected industries; preparing to distribute food, medicine, and other items to patients in quarantine or isolated at home, and so on.
With a robust public response it should be possible to dramatically slow this virus without completely collapsing the economy. The fallout (not just illness/death but also economic impact) from all the cases hitting at once within a few weeks is going to be much more worse.
I’m not sure exactly what the best responses would be, I’m just spitballing here. But it seems to me we should have been thinking and talking about possible extreme measures for the past 6 weeks instead of collectively twiddling our thumbs and going on with our ordinary lives.
Everybody who works any public-facing job will go to work with a “cold”, I guarantee it. I did. The alternative is losing said job. Welcome to America.
This Business Insider article seems really pointless and vapid to me. Their criticism of reddit is they don't link to official CDC or WHO pages at the top of their search results? You might as well level the same accusation at Hacker News or any other internet forum. And the fact that Facebook and Twitter has those links does nothing to stop them from being full of misinformation themselves.
I looked through /r/covid19/ and it mostly seems to be an aggregator of research papers. Don't really see much tinfoily or panicky stuff there.
Besides, I'm not sure why Business Insider thinks linking to the CDC is some sort of be all end all solution to providing coronavirus information. They've actually been incredibly slow to provide up to date information (not to mention testing).
This article comes across as Business Insider taking a petty swipe at reddit to generate clicks and trying to stir up drama where none exists.
It is, and pulling out the marathon bombing case just shows it's a hit piece.
Social media in general, and Reddit in particular, are commoditizing news publications, and displacing them as trusted sources of information. That's IMO why there have been so many such articles coming out regularly in the past few years.
Such demands infuriate me to no end. BI's prescription seems more mild than others, but a good example of where they can go awry is YouTube. Youtube used to be a great tool for finding primary sources and citizen livestreams during ongoing events.
The coup in Venezuela, the Yellow Vest protests, and even Charlottesville all had individuals, both partisans and observers contributing to a body of information that allowed interested people to develop a more holistic awareness of the ground-level context as it unfolded in real-time.
Seemingly there are a number of medical professionals providing coolheaded analysis of the COVID outbreak, but if I were to search it up, I would be subject to a tsunami of vapid, hyperbolic observations and speculations breathlessly belted out by talking heads whose two great skills are reading a teleprompter, and running their mouths between segments.
Every time something of cultural interest or controversy occurs, self-interested media outlets run hitpiece after hitpiece against whichever platform hasn't bent the knee to their industry in the recent past, all under the auspices of the public good, and ensuring only the highest quality information is available.
Which, of course, only inflames the skepticism and paranoia of those convinced that the media is plotting to control them, even as they deny knowledge to those capable of keeping themselves informed and acting through their own sources.
Traditional media is being outcompeted as a primary source for both critical audiences that want to stay informed, as well as for credulous audiences who want to be entertained, and hear what they already agree with.
This isn't to denigrate the great work being done around the globe by investigative journalists. News reporting is a thankless, and unprofitable venture. It's unfortunate that their great work is so often buried beneath a sea of punditry with little more insight than a reddit thread.
HN has been a great source for information on COVID 19, and I get links to primary articles that I wouldn't know to find, and which most publications only reference in passing. It helps me stay informed. If I was just passively reading/watching the news, I shudder to imagine what I'd think.
/r/coronavirus can definitely be bad on your mental health, but /r/covid19 is pretty level headed. Like ya, there are some scared people on it, but it's not very conspiracy-y.
One thing I don't understand is why we shouldn't all have a healthy dose of anxiety about the outbreak. Most of the stuff in life people go around worrying about is meaningless -- what will people think of me? What happens if I lose my job?
But if anxiety leads more people to self-quarantine and wash their hands over and over again, it will save lives. Potentially a lot of them.
Anxiety doesn't normally have a place in society because it's so overwhelmingly safe most of the time, but we're facing a legitimate threat that people can do something about.
Obviously, there's no place for panic and stockpiling, but most of the people I see don't seem too worried -- they don't seem worried enough. People should be more cautious.
Your take on things is interesting as one instance of 3blue1brown's point in the video: if everyone is worrying, you don't have anything to worry about. But if no one is worried, you should be worried.
You seem to be taking a position of "Everyone else is worried. I assert that my non-worry will be proven to be the correct position." Yet, your prediction that the redditors are excessively worried ("panicky") will only be borne out if those who worry are sufficient in number and intensity to keep downward pressure on the exponential multiplier.
There's a worry vector field around the Earth here, I can feel it. I wonder what you get with the line integral?
BI posts a hitpiece on their competitor and that's the message you took. Social media and YouTube at least provide a way to find and post first hand information that is needed when traditional news sources have their own agendas that don't always align with the truth.
I've yet to see any opinion pieces from Business Insider that weren't shallow hit pieces. It's not a place for intelligent people to get information. Or, really, anyone.
The thing about reddit is it can be very useful if you know when to take it seriously and know when they're being over the top. All the subs are subject to hivemind, so you have to correct for that.
The numbers from China are not reliable; there are only disincentives to proper reporting. The way the WHO has coddled China is not exactly commendable.
Diversity of sources and information is good anyway, barring some caveats. There is more than just raw numbers at play; you need a variety of sources to see impacts on daily life, how people are preparing, etc. I follow CBC (Canada), some fellow humans on twitter, and especially appreciate the stuff this guy puts out; https://twitter.com/balajis
I get info from WHO, just making it clear they're not my only source. If I had to choose just one, sure WHO is great. Nobody has the "real" numbers for China so it's moot.
[Edit: I also didn't get my suspicion of China's numbers from him or anyone in particular; I follow China a lot and it's my own conclusion. In January I personally saw packed hospitals and dozens of dead bodies in twitter videos, and it's not exactly easy or safe to get those videos out.]
Maybe I've just been following the topic a lot more than other people. I can understand not having time for it. I have a respiratory condition, and live with an elderly person, so I actually worked my last day as a barista today in order to eliminate public contact. Where I am the virus probably won't come for a couple to a dozen weeks, if ever, but it's still a precaution I can afford to take so I did (I can consult from home).
Also I love tinfoil hats, thank you <3 (Sorry for the long thread, kinda hoping we get collapsed)
I found this link very interesting. It seems to show the reproduction number is decreasing quite fast in Italy (before the latest quarantine measures, making me wonder if they were really needed). In Korea, it's also just below 1, which would mark the end of the virus propagation if this is confirmed. If these numbers are accurate, it seems that the epidemics can be controlled without resorting to extreme measures. I'd be curious to get other people's opinions. I'm not quite sure I'm interpreting this data correctly.
Yeah, certain countries seem to be doing a very good job at keeping the spread at bay. SK is doing the best job at mitigation. TW, HK, and SG have so far been very effective at containment. CN dropped to the ball to start, but it turns out they managed to take it seriously in time and it may be under control. Their biggest risk, ironically enough is probably going to be spread from international travelers.
From today's new case report and death count (not to mention the 16M person lockdown of all of Lombardy), the worst may not be over for Italy yet (although I think they're doing the best job of the European countries from what I can see)... https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fffppj/italy_r...
Of the 133 deaths today in Italy, it appears to be primarily older folks atm, but the reports of running out of ICU beds is not a good sign (anyone in serious condition, regardless of age, requires intubation at least): https://i.imgur.com/VYWdjEI.png
I'd also encourage everyone to take as many reasonable steps as possible to reduce the spread of infection (proper hygiene, avoiding crowds/public contact as much as possible, social distancing when unavoidable), as lowering the capacity pressure on the healthcare system will be key to saving lives, even if your personal risk is low.
We'll be able to see on a country-by-country basis soon which governments/societies have responded the best, but as the WHO put it, "this is not a drill," and I hope everyone here stays safe.
I think that goes without saying and is the primary reason people should be concerned about slowing the spread irrespective of personal risk.
The elderly death rate is as expected though - the Chinese epidemiological numbers show a close to 15% CFR for 80yo+ - if you are older or have pre-existing conditions, it's even more important that you do your best to avoid catching this.
A couple of weeks ago I saw a comment alleging that the subreddit had a pro-china bias[1]. Personally, I've noticed some patterns that seem to be consistent with those allegations:
* I frequent /r/all. when the subreddit shows up on /r/all (first or second page), it's almost always negative news about some country other than china
* I visited the subreddit on occasion and negative news about china are... few and never anywhere close to the top. At the writing of this comment[2] the only post about china is good news about a 100 year old man recovering from the infection.
* A few days ago there were stories of a hotel collapse in china (it was used to quarantine patients). Posts from various subreddits were showing up on /r/all (first page), however in the /r/coronavirus subreddit the story was in the middle of the first page. You'd think that if such a story was showing up on /r/all, that it'd be #1 or #2 place in the subreddit.
Just a month ago that subreddit was nothing but negative news about China, because China was doing a terrible job. Now China is evidently doing a good job and other countries are screwing up, so they're getting called out. Please don't turn every observation into the world into a conspiracy. It's possible for people to lack your nationalist fervor without being paid shills.
> Just a month ago that subreddit was nothing but negative news about China, because China was doing a terrible job. Now China is evidently doing a good job and other countries are screwing up, so they're getting called out.
That explains the first two points, but not the last. It is also consistent with a "moderator takeover" that the original commenter claimed. As it stands, the subreddit hasn't gone full blown /r/sino so it's hard to definitively tell.
> Please don't turn every observation into the world into a conspiracy.
Actually I never claimed there was any sort of conspiracy, just a bias. /r/politics has a liberal (and probably bernie) bias, but I, nor most people would call it a conspiracy.
> It's possible for people to lack your nationalist fervor without being paid shills.
Sure. OTOH you don't seem to think it's possible for me to bring up this topic without being nationalist.
It's the same set of moderators as when the sub was exclusively anti-China. The point is that the median reader of that sub is concerned with results, that's why the narrative their changed.
And yes, if you think celebrating the survival of Chinese grandmothers and grandfathers is so unbelievable that that anybody upvoting it must be a shill, you are blinded by politics. There are forums made for spewing out attitudes like yours, on the grimier parts of the internet. Please consider commenting over there instead, so we can keep HN clean. Thanks.
I wonder how the US military is preparing or dealing with Corona. We have multiple active deployments and need to maintain a fairly robust military readiness. Soldiers often live very close together. Imagine an entire regiment being sick and unable to deploy.
The video says that it's really a logistic curve. Which is also the activation function (sigmoid) in a few machine learning articles that I've been reading.
For neural networks to work, the activation function has to be nonlinear and monotonic. In order to be able to apply the chain rule for training the weights by backpropagation, the function also has to be differentiable. The logistic function is one obvious choice, but other functions such as tanh, arctan or relu are popular as well.
In machine learning it's used as an activation function. Activation functions are used to add non-linearity to the model. I think sigmoid functions are inspired from neurons, but I'm not sure exactly how. Nowadays, ReLU activations are used more often than sigmoidals because they are quicker to compute.
ReLu are mainly used because in practice they show better results than sigmoids in many areas. The fact that they are also faster to compute is just a nice side effect.
Do we have an accurate count of cases? For example if most cases are determined based on hospitalization, then the hospitalized death rate is the same as the estimated actual death rate.
I haven't been able to find studies on the hospitalization rate to know.
I think the graph meant 96 million infections active in the peak two months. Hard to be sure without seeing the presentation, but it definitely isn’t the next two months.
"The American Hospital Association said the webinar reflects the views of the experts who spoke on it, not its own."
You're quoting the opinion of one person: Dr James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Centre. That person researches infectious diseases, so, their opinion isn't a complete guess of course, but we should ascribe the numbers to the right source.
There are two extreme paths we can take. The first is that we do nothing, the other is that we completely lock down our society like China.
While the first option would be unwise, the second would also be unwise.
A complete shutdown for a disease as virulent as Covid-19 will just suppress the virus for the duration of the shutdown. Ignoring the extreme difficulty and impracticality of shutting society down for a moment, recognize that the moment the shutdown ends, the virus will probably reappear and continue to spread.
What then? Another complete shutdown? When does it end?
No, the right solution is a distributed solution in which affected companies and communities deal with the virus, imposing gradual restrictions on gatherings, work, schooling etc in an organic way. Which is exactly what is happening in the US right now.
The point of all this is, what more can the US government do than it is already doing? Send the military in to shut down the highways? Hold scientists at gunpoint until they produce a vaccine?
Many (Media, Democrats) are trying to leverage this to their political advantage, but aside from small changes in approach, what exactly do they want the government to do differently?
> Many (Media, Democrats) are trying to leverage this to their political advantage
To date, most of the complaints about the current administrations' handling of COVID-19 have been about the cuts to the CDC, the history of Pence and Redfield regarding HIV, and other fact based arguments and criticisms. It is entirely possible that none of these factors had or will have a substantive impact on the spread of COVID-19. But they are still valid criticisms none the less.
In contrast, take Trump's response to the Ebola crisis[1], which was a remarkable example of fear-mongering and politiking in the face of a potential crisis.
I figure there's some kind of "true" fatality rate that just answers the question of "If you catch the virus, you have this (age-adjusted) chance of dying". It seems like we'll asymptotically reach that "true" rate once testing is extremely common and liberal (to have confidence you are identifying all cases). Some countries are reaching that testing rate. Then your upper and lower bounds for that death rate are "deaths / deaths + recoveries" and "deaths / confirmed cases", respectively, and they should converge as "active cases" decrease over time (as they either recover or die). You can use that "band" (between the upper and lower bounds) to judge other countries and determine whether they are testing enough - if they are above that "band", they are clearly not testing enough.
Yeah, that's a good point. Fatality increases as treatment options decrease. Treatment options can decrease whether it's a less advanced country, or a more advanced country that just gets overwhelmed due to poorer containment than other advanced countries.
The thing is, there are probably some people who won't die, no matter how they're treated, and some who will die, no matter how they're treated. There are also quite a large number, probably about 4-5% of the population, who can be saved with correct treatment, from not very aggressive to extremely aggressive - up to running the blood through artificial lungs.
Sigh. It's not exponential growth, it's best modeled by a differential equation. Like population, the rate of growth is proportional to the amount present up to the current carrying capacity (that varies widely in the real world and with time).
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[ 2.6 ms ] story [ 193 ms ] threadI think I have more questions now that I watched the video than I do answers :)
In the times of plague the places that suffered the least were:
- sparsely populated
- didn't participated much in the international trade
- used quarantines on the borders early
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/bubonic-plague-spares-pola...
In looking at the outbreak gripping Italy, it seems like hard quarantine is the most basic precaution, and perhaps we should be taking it before the first hundreds of people die in each of our countries.
I'm sure many people have dealt with this while writing software.
tl;dr: People are idiots.
Roads are closed.
People are going to be very, very hungry very, very soon.
Hunger will create desperation, which will create violence, which will quickly dwarf the few thousands of people that covid will kill
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...
Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.
But also, at least 3,097 people out of the 80,699 have already died, and by the same measure, 20,283 of the confirmed have yet to recover.
The rest of the world, of course, is just getting started.
Is there an immunity built up in infected people or does the clock reset ?
You cant quarantine the world and expect a global economy to survive
The simple fact most countries are interdependent ( see : Toilet paper) is a real issue.
The rich can wait out a downturn. It is the poor who will struggle.
Where goods can't travel from where they are made to where they could be sold, or worse can't be made because nobody is allowed to leave home to go make them.
Where we isolate each country from the others, each state/province/region, each everywhere.
Where commerce is effectively ended due to the inability of people to participate in it.
With no resupply available for weeks at a minimum, people are.going to get mighty hungry.
Funny how quickly the HN crowd cheers for these incredible restrictions on life and freedom, and yet pretend not to favor totalitarianism
I don't know how long the exponential growth might continue.
In CA btw.
Hard to know exactly what you are referring to here but it sounds like you are spreading more misinformation. We all need to get better at communicating. I swear that half of public discussion these days is based on fictional situations and not reality.
I'm taking no stance here on 1) as it really depends what specific criticism is being evaluated. Some of it was/is reasonable and some of it was/is ill-founded.I have no idea what exactly motivated all the bullshit associated with 3) but it was some combination or poor reading comprehension, slopping rumor mongering, or disgusting politicization of a major public health crisis.
https://www.scottadamssays.com/2020/03/05/episode-840-scott-...
"Nobody under 70 has died, and over 700 people infected on that ship. So that's impressive."
That's just from randomly seeking through one of his recordings.
Yeah, China, Korea, and Italy quarantined millions over just the flu. Some people's ability to deny reality is very impressive.
And there are definitely Trump supporters calling the situation a hoax, as in, "this is a hoax to blow up the stock market and make Trump look bad, don't you know that more people die of the flu every year?".
We don't have to copy everything China does, just do what has proven to work:
Fast testing and contact tracing.
https://twitter.com/drdenagrayson/status/1235703439688175618
Yeah, if they stop containing it, it will start spreading again...
The only long term success for suppression is from a vaccine. Contained on the other hand means every infected person can gain immunity and the virus would then run out of new hosts.
For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran...
On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some of the most interesting visualization/graphs: https://twitter.com/Datagraver
I've found this via mrb (@zorinaq) who's been tracking the covid19 spread: https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1235850389020270595
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-reddit-social-pl...
Also you might as well rename /r/Coronavirus/ to /r/politics2 aka fucktrump. It's the same thing over and over again
It might (or might not) be accurate, but that's kinda irrelevant.
One of the biggest problems with Reddit is that Americans go on boards like /r/politics or in this case /r/Coronavirus, see extreme hostility towards America and Trump and assume that this hostility is all coming from Americans themselves, when really a substantial number of Reddit users (and users elsewhere on the Internet) are not American.
Not being Americans, their hostility comes more from predisposed bias against Trump and America than a careful analysis of what's best for America.
Indeed, Trump's statist media is Fox News that has an average viewer ago of 68 years old (who, ironically, will be the bulk of the victims of COVID-19).
Though anyone with even the slightest hint of morality or intellectual sincerity has a predisposed bias against Trump. He has pushed it way beyond politics, and now it's whether you're a very stupid, terrible person or not.
What kills me though is the “if you disagree with me politically you’re obviously just a racist/homophobe/etc. That social justice agenda has to stop. And reddit is prime real estate for where they congregate. I watched a mass reddit mob harass anyone who claimed an accusation from a woman shouldn’t be automatically taken as fact, and that women NEVER lie and you are guilty the moment you are accused, and you’re a “horrible human being” if you even dare to think a single woman could EVER possibly lie when accusing someone.
The internet has done a lot of good, but it’s become Ground Zero for extremist ideology like that to run rampant.
What's so ironic about foxnews viewers being victims? They aren't panicking appropriately enough or something? I just glanced at their website and it didn't seem particularly slanted on the topic. Looks like they have multiple coronavirus stories coming out every hour. One can easily freak out if so inclined.
Trump has played down the potential of this and has been primarily concerned about keeping the stock market frothing and the counts artificially low. He also called it a hoax, the guy he just gave the presidential medal called it the common cold, he is an anti-vaxxer, etc. His entire administration has to spend their day doing absurd deflection to tell you how great the clothes are that the empower is wearing and to continually reframe everything to make whatever idiotic thing Trump said last not seem quite as stupid.
The surgeon general - a fit man in his 40s - just went on TV to announce that Trump — a sedentary obese fast food fanatic in his 70s — is fitter than him. We've seen a parade of these absolutely depraved displays, where people who once were credible completely debase themselves to ensure the emporer's ego is massaged.
These are extraordinary times and it is ironic that Trump’s hubris, ego, anti-intellectualism, and his circle of profoundly unqualified rats are going to hit the demographic that put him in power the hardest.
And every time Trump talks, the market collapses. He is very close to the worst possible person to be in that position during a crisis.
I think the real issue is that you go to a place like r/politics or r/vancouver or r/bitcoin and think it's some canonical forum with some semblance of fairness but it's really just someone's little world with its own rules and agenda.
But you can't simply start your own subreddit because you're now r/vancouver2, r/TrueVancouver, or whatever and it can never get the same traction just because it's not the official-looking r/vancouver anymore.
* * *
Seattle is about 2 weeks behind Lombardy. The Bay Area maybe 3 weeks behind. Everywhere in the US is going to be in that situation in 2 months at most, unless something very dramatic changes ASAP.
The kinds of measures being taken in the US are grossly inadequate for this challenge: leaders and some media outlets continue to downplay risks, residents continue to blithely go about their everyday lives, large gatherings like church meetings and sporting events continue as usual, the CDC/FDA is still blocking sufficient testing around the country, hospitals and medical workers are not being sufficiently trained and prepared, and the supply of personal protective gear and ICU beds is not going to suffice.
We have squandered 4–6 weeks of preparation for this crisis, and hundreds of thousands of people in the US may die as a result, with others experiencing permanent lung damage.
China has shown that this virus can be managed if the number of patients stays low enough that infections are discovered early and patients are treated aggressively with antivirals, supplemental oxygen as soon as blood oxygen starts to drop, mechanical ventilators for severe cases, etc. People’s immune systems generally do fight this virus off if we can keep them breathing for long enough. But that depends on having enough hospital capacity.
If everyone stays complacent and continues to mingle until there are hundreds of local deaths in each area it’s going to be a disaster.
Edit 2: To everyone here: If you have what seems like a minor cold, even if you are a young adult, please stay away from people and don’t spread it. What is 2 weeks of minor cough and sore throat for you might become severe pneumonia requiring hospitalization for your parent or neighbor or coworker. If anyone in the family gets a minor cold, please keep your kids out of school. Etc.
They also have already stock piled masks and additional resources. The medical staff in the area are similarly mentally preparing, schools are prepping for the shutdown (at home school).
I wouldn’t say the US is doing nothing, this is rural Illinois. There just isn’t much to do here until it’s a problem. But as soon as we get a few test positives schools are planning shutdown (I’m assuming gyms will be used for patients as necessary).
https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-n... https://news.ontario.ca/mohltc/en/2020/03/ontario-confirms-n...
All the other cases we've seen were related to travel to Iran, Italy, Egypt, & China IIRC.
EDIT: one was a woman who returned from Colorado on Mar 2, the other a man who returned from Las Vegas on Feb 28.
Unfortunately this is effectively "let them eat cake" for many people.
Keeping kids out of school means not going to work. Not going to work means not having money to pay the bills, and very possibly losing your job.
In China, where the state has basically total control, things like this can be done. In the US, it's going to be a tough sell for an awful lot of people.
If it were up to me the federal government and state and local governments would be closing schools, closing nursing homes to visitors, canceling church services and sporting events, figuring out how to make transportation less risky, closing restaurants and bars to customers and drafting those workers to make deliverable prepared meals instead, recruiting childless people aged 15–40 into temporary (paid) public service jobs, doing everything possible to guarantee sufficient supply of protective equipment, taking every roadblock out from researching antiviral drugs for treating positive cases, etc.
Governments should be figuring out how to guarantee anyone with untested minor colds to stay home from work without losing pay until they can be tested; figuring out how to temporarily relieve rent, loan payments, and taxes for people quarantined or with jobs in temporarily affected industries; preparing to distribute food, medicine, and other items to patients in quarantine or isolated at home, and so on.
With a robust public response it should be possible to dramatically slow this virus without completely collapsing the economy. The fallout (not just illness/death but also economic impact) from all the cases hitting at once within a few weeks is going to be much more worse.
I’m not sure exactly what the best responses would be, I’m just spitballing here. But it seems to me we should have been thinking and talking about possible extreme measures for the past 6 weeks instead of collectively twiddling our thumbs and going on with our ordinary lives.
I looked through /r/covid19/ and it mostly seems to be an aggregator of research papers. Don't really see much tinfoily or panicky stuff there.
I also have no idea why posting this chart would be considered "making bold and fearmongering claims": https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/euokq5/oc_...
Besides, I'm not sure why Business Insider thinks linking to the CDC is some sort of be all end all solution to providing coronavirus information. They've actually been incredibly slow to provide up to date information (not to mention testing).
This article comes across as Business Insider taking a petty swipe at reddit to generate clicks and trying to stir up drama where none exists.
Social media in general, and Reddit in particular, are commoditizing news publications, and displacing them as trusted sources of information. That's IMO why there have been so many such articles coming out regularly in the past few years.
The coup in Venezuela, the Yellow Vest protests, and even Charlottesville all had individuals, both partisans and observers contributing to a body of information that allowed interested people to develop a more holistic awareness of the ground-level context as it unfolded in real-time.
Seemingly there are a number of medical professionals providing coolheaded analysis of the COVID outbreak, but if I were to search it up, I would be subject to a tsunami of vapid, hyperbolic observations and speculations breathlessly belted out by talking heads whose two great skills are reading a teleprompter, and running their mouths between segments.
Every time something of cultural interest or controversy occurs, self-interested media outlets run hitpiece after hitpiece against whichever platform hasn't bent the knee to their industry in the recent past, all under the auspices of the public good, and ensuring only the highest quality information is available.
Which, of course, only inflames the skepticism and paranoia of those convinced that the media is plotting to control them, even as they deny knowledge to those capable of keeping themselves informed and acting through their own sources.
Traditional media is being outcompeted as a primary source for both critical audiences that want to stay informed, as well as for credulous audiences who want to be entertained, and hear what they already agree with.
This isn't to denigrate the great work being done around the globe by investigative journalists. News reporting is a thankless, and unprofitable venture. It's unfortunate that their great work is so often buried beneath a sea of punditry with little more insight than a reddit thread.
HN has been a great source for information on COVID 19, and I get links to primary articles that I wouldn't know to find, and which most publications only reference in passing. It helps me stay informed. If I was just passively reading/watching the news, I shudder to imagine what I'd think.
But if anxiety leads more people to self-quarantine and wash their hands over and over again, it will save lives. Potentially a lot of them.
Anxiety doesn't normally have a place in society because it's so overwhelmingly safe most of the time, but we're facing a legitimate threat that people can do something about.
Obviously, there's no place for panic and stockpiling, but most of the people I see don't seem too worried -- they don't seem worried enough. People should be more cautious.
You seem to be taking a position of "Everyone else is worried. I assert that my non-worry will be proven to be the correct position." Yet, your prediction that the redditors are excessively worried ("panicky") will only be borne out if those who worry are sufficient in number and intensity to keep downward pressure on the exponential multiplier.
There's a worry vector field around the Earth here, I can feel it. I wonder what you get with the line integral?
I even think the 500k death in the US is too much
https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-pr...
>Lawler's estimates include:
>4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
>96 million cases overall in the US
>480,000 deaths
Once again I'm not downplaying it but I think we will be closer to the 1957-59 asian flu which had 70k deaths in the US and 2 million global BUT maybe that's even too much https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H2N2
https://avatorl.org/covid-19/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...
Their director also has statements published regularly:
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail
Diversity of sources and information is good anyway, barring some caveats. There is more than just raw numbers at play; you need a variety of sources to see impacts on daily life, how people are preparing, etc. I follow CBC (Canada), some fellow humans on twitter, and especially appreciate the stuff this guy puts out; https://twitter.com/balajis
Here is some tinfoil for you...
He's not a random guy; https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1228752554022068226 but he's also not my only source.
[Edit: I also didn't get my suspicion of China's numbers from him or anyone in particular; I follow China a lot and it's my own conclusion. In January I personally saw packed hospitals and dozens of dead bodies in twitter videos, and it's not exactly easy or safe to get those videos out.]
Maybe I've just been following the topic a lot more than other people. I can understand not having time for it. I have a respiratory condition, and live with an elderly person, so I actually worked my last day as a barista today in order to eliminate public contact. Where I am the virus probably won't come for a couple to a dozen weeks, if ever, but it's still a precaution I can afford to take so I did (I can consult from home).
Also I love tinfoil hats, thank you <3 (Sorry for the long thread, kinda hoping we get collapsed)
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1236815743079067649
https://twitter.com/tony_zy/status/1236139704627728385
CSSE seems to be the most up-to-date aggregate source, though their Github repo is lagging half a day behind the map at here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h....
https://gist.github.com/Gro-Tsen/866cb55d6004356c142ebab462b...
I found this link very interesting. It seems to show the reproduction number is decreasing quite fast in Italy (before the latest quarantine measures, making me wonder if they were really needed). In Korea, it's also just below 1, which would mark the end of the virus propagation if this is confirmed. If these numbers are accurate, it seems that the epidemics can be controlled without resorting to extreme measures. I'd be curious to get other people's opinions. I'm not quite sure I'm interpreting this data correctly.
From today's new case report and death count (not to mention the 16M person lockdown of all of Lombardy), the worst may not be over for Italy yet (although I think they're doing the best job of the European countries from what I can see)... https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fffppj/italy_r...
Of the 133 deaths today in Italy, it appears to be primarily older folks atm, but the reports of running out of ICU beds is not a good sign (anyone in serious condition, regardless of age, requires intubation at least): https://i.imgur.com/VYWdjEI.png
For those that aren't taking COVID-19 very very seriously, I'd recommend reading a frontline report from an Italian HCW: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ffa2tf/testimo...
I'd also encourage everyone to take as many reasonable steps as possible to reduce the spread of infection (proper hygiene, avoiding crowds/public contact as much as possible, social distancing when unavoidable), as lowering the capacity pressure on the healthcare system will be key to saving lives, even if your personal risk is low.
We'll be able to see on a country-by-country basis soon which governments/societies have responded the best, but as the WHO put it, "this is not a drill," and I hope everyone here stays safe.
Please show a little compassion for your elders.
The elderly death rate is as expected though - the Chinese epidemiological numbers show a close to 15% CFR for 80yo+ - if you are older or have pre-existing conditions, it's even more important that you do your best to avoid catching this.
A couple of weeks ago I saw a comment alleging that the subreddit had a pro-china bias[1]. Personally, I've noticed some patterns that seem to be consistent with those allegations:
* I frequent /r/all. when the subreddit shows up on /r/all (first or second page), it's almost always negative news about some country other than china
* I visited the subreddit on occasion and negative news about china are... few and never anywhere close to the top. At the writing of this comment[2] the only post about china is good news about a 100 year old man recovering from the infection.
* A few days ago there were stories of a hotel collapse in china (it was used to quarantine patients). Posts from various subreddits were showing up on /r/all (first page), however in the /r/coronavirus subreddit the story was in the middle of the first page. You'd think that if such a story was showing up on /r/all, that it'd be #1 or #2 place in the subreddit.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22438754
[2] https://archive.is/DBWSj
That explains the first two points, but not the last. It is also consistent with a "moderator takeover" that the original commenter claimed. As it stands, the subreddit hasn't gone full blown /r/sino so it's hard to definitively tell.
> Please don't turn every observation into the world into a conspiracy.
Actually I never claimed there was any sort of conspiracy, just a bias. /r/politics has a liberal (and probably bernie) bias, but I, nor most people would call it a conspiracy.
> It's possible for people to lack your nationalist fervor without being paid shills.
Sure. OTOH you don't seem to think it's possible for me to bring up this topic without being nationalist.
And yes, if you think celebrating the survival of Chinese grandmothers and grandfathers is so unbelievable that that anybody upvoting it must be a shill, you are blinded by politics. There are forums made for spewing out attitudes like yours, on the grimier parts of the internet. Please consider commenting over there instead, so we can keep HN clean. Thanks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
Can anyone recommend anything to read to add more clarity?
Why does this appear in deep learning too?
I mean, of course it's not a true, complete exponential, or else it would take over the universe in 2.3 years or something.
All exponentials run out of something eventually. The question is, how soon does that happen.
So yes, lower hospitalised mortality rate but only because so many more people are hospitalised
I haven't been able to find studies on the hospitalization rate to know.
96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admissions
480,000 deaths
vs flu in 2019:
35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths
https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-pr...
If the doubling time is one week there is just something like 100k - 200k infections in next two months.
I think those numbers are yearly infection estimates.
You're quoting the opinion of one person: Dr James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Centre. That person researches infectious diseases, so, their opinion isn't a complete guess of course, but we should ascribe the numbers to the right source.
While the first option would be unwise, the second would also be unwise.
A complete shutdown for a disease as virulent as Covid-19 will just suppress the virus for the duration of the shutdown. Ignoring the extreme difficulty and impracticality of shutting society down for a moment, recognize that the moment the shutdown ends, the virus will probably reappear and continue to spread.
What then? Another complete shutdown? When does it end?
No, the right solution is a distributed solution in which affected companies and communities deal with the virus, imposing gradual restrictions on gatherings, work, schooling etc in an organic way. Which is exactly what is happening in the US right now.
The point of all this is, what more can the US government do than it is already doing? Send the military in to shut down the highways? Hold scientists at gunpoint until they produce a vaccine?
Many (Media, Democrats) are trying to leverage this to their political advantage, but aside from small changes in approach, what exactly do they want the government to do differently?
Those would all be good steps.
lol, found the echo chamber repeater
To date, most of the complaints about the current administrations' handling of COVID-19 have been about the cuts to the CDC, the history of Pence and Redfield regarding HIV, and other fact based arguments and criticisms. It is entirely possible that none of these factors had or will have a substantive impact on the spread of COVID-19. But they are still valid criticisms none the less.
In contrast, take Trump's response to the Ebola crisis[1], which was a remarkable example of fear-mongering and politiking in the face of a potential crisis.
[1]https://www.vox.com/2020/2/26/21154253/trump-ebola-tweets-co...
bad news: How this behaves will depend a lot on a (containment measures etc...)
good news: If we can make a grow faster than an exponential, we can win