That people love to fearmonger for views and ratings, also they want someone to blame that has absolutely nothing to do with the outbreak.
Personally I think this entire thing is blown extremely out of proportion by the media (at least in the US, where we are rated #1 at preventing things like this). Compare it at the same time to swine flu and the results are extremely interesting.
I wasn't referring directly to this article with the "fearmongering" opinion. However, in regards to Lipsitch's analysis he uses a lot of "may be, we don't know, etc.." speculation that seems to hint that even the experts don't quite have the full grasp of the situation yet either.
I am all for safety and notifying the public of immediate threats, and taking the correct precautions. But, at this point it seems increasingly that these predictions and analysis are being too quickly released with not enough information so you get great amounts of speculation which therein fuels panic.
It is interesting that this sentiment keeps popping up regarding the US handling of the situation. The US was fast and early to react, especially compared to the US handling of the swine flu... and people seem to just completely ignore that fact or throw it out the window completely.
Fast and early compared to whom? We knew it was coming and it seems like we’re still making preparations and only started after we unloaded a ship of sick passengers without proper planning.
Neither can the Coronavirus posts on HN it seems. There are a million trillion websites where you can discuss your favourite doomsday theories about this pandemic, can we please spare this place?
Strange, I often read/hear that from German scientists too. But I wonder: why has China succeeded in (maybe only temporarily) stopping and reversing the exponential growth? South Korea seems also to be on the path of achieving this.
Of course, there is the possibility that numbers jump again like crazy once the heavy restrictions are lifted. But I still wonder why there is no second Wuhan situation somewhere else in China.
China hasn't just stopped it by a little either. The reproduction factor in hubei is near 0.5 and has been for a while. They will succeed in eradicating the virus in that locality before too long if things continue on their current trajectory.
The difference is that they are actually trying. We aren't, yet, but soon we will be compelled to.
I expect that they will ban travel from infected regions (i.e. everywhere else). Or do what Israel is doing and impose a mandatory 14 day quarantine for all inbounds. Tourism is not going to be a thing this year.
I really love how an opposing opinion to "the appeal to authority fallacy" has somehow turned into "denying/ignoring the science!", can people not be allowed to dissect and create an opposing opinion or conclusion of the facts that are presented by these figures?
An article closer to home with no Spiegel-Spritzen. I think the “I Don't Think the Virus Can Be Stopped Anymore” is clickbait out of context to sell more Der Spiegels, marketed to people who are waiting for some final pronouncement of doom.
Here is Marc Lipsitch quoted properly with a definition of "flattening the curve" which is the rational way to present the idea that containment is no longer possible.
Containment is no longer possible because the disease is becoming globally endemic and will probably survive in successive waves over several years and the only thing under our control at this point is to prevent a spike of cases. We must dispense with the idea that our parents or grandparents can be kept in a perpetual bubble and will NEVER get the disease. We might however take steps that ensure that it unfolds slowly enough that adequate medical care will be available.
There never was any hope that it could be stopped. The goal is to slow down the spread so the medical system isn't overwhelmed and people can be helped.
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[ 2.7 ms ] story [ 68.4 ms ] threadPersonally I think this entire thing is blown extremely out of proportion by the media (at least in the US, where we are rated #1 at preventing things like this). Compare it at the same time to swine flu and the results are extremely interesting.
I am all for safety and notifying the public of immediate threats, and taking the correct precautions. But, at this point it seems increasingly that these predictions and analysis are being too quickly released with not enough information so you get great amounts of speculation which therein fuels panic.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAE205/history/20200310/...
Also the quality of the response matters
China closed Wuhan, but the US still allowed flights without monitoring
And there are still not enough test kits to go around
Of course, there is the possibility that numbers jump again like crazy once the heavy restrictions are lifted. But I still wonder why there is no second Wuhan situation somewhere else in China.
The difference is that they are actually trying. We aren't, yet, but soon we will be compelled to.
I heard rumors that Chinese doctors got quotas of max cases they can report, then they have to make something else up.
Plus all other stuff that they enforce there, like mass spraying, presonal lockdowns etc. That must play role too.
Problem with China is that you can never trust what they report, as they are not allowing any outside org in to check /help/advice.
The priority now is that slow its spread as much as possible so medical resources are not overwhelmed.
The scenario of a million people sick in one month is very very different from a million people sick over 3 months.
Not sure there's anything novel here. Just another epidemiologist continuing to try and get the word out and people continuing to ignore the science.
Maybe politicians will actually listen to someone from Harvard now though, one can hope.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/officials-det...
Here is Marc Lipsitch quoted properly with a definition of "flattening the curve" which is the rational way to present the idea that containment is no longer possible.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-...
Containment is no longer possible because the disease is becoming globally endemic and will probably survive in successive waves over several years and the only thing under our control at this point is to prevent a spike of cases. We must dispense with the idea that our parents or grandparents can be kept in a perpetual bubble and will NEVER get the disease. We might however take steps that ensure that it unfolds slowly enough that adequate medical care will be available.