Please Americans, take preemptive measures. Ramp up masks, respirators, gloves, alcohol, bleach production. Work from home if you can, protect workers from logistic chains. Don't wait until you have the numbers on top of you.
It's not only the virus, is the deep economical effects it is having. Massive layoffs now in Spain, the economy is basically at full stop.
If you don't do it, it's not only you who will suffer. Everyone will.
Please, please, be responsible. Not only for your elders but for everything else. Don't wait until it becomes personal, you get relatives infected or you lose your job or your business. Every time you don't act is way more people infected, way more people dead, way more people with problems.
Make homemade masks if you need to. Wear them no matter what other think.
Learn from others mistakes. Don't undervaluate the situation. You should understand this situation as a war-like one, but in your own soil.
I saw it coming, didn't have to go through the denial phase, but it makes me nervous nonetheless. It's different to know about something than going through it. If you are calmed now, take advantage of that emotional state to plan ahead, you will perform better.
I've been preparing for weeks. Meanwhile, I explain to others what is coming (I live in a rural area in Canada). People laugh at me or simply don't care.
This requires such a strong shift in paradigm that they will need to see things falling apart or people dying close to them until they act.
Dude make everything you can. If they don't trust your word, try to show them news pieces that explain the nature of the exponential function. NYT on others are doing some work on it.
Believe me, I went through 2008 and it was hard here in Spain, but this is something different. You're nervous not only for your economical future but for your health and the health of your loved ones, and it's an invisible enemy.
The government is saying that this is a huge crisis, but a temporal one. Society is closing down and pretty much everyone agrees that this is bad and is going to be for long.
Those of you who know what's coming, you should make your best effort. I regret I didn't go way more vocal of fears of being dismissed as an alarmist.
Have you got a link for the "Massive layoffs in Spain" - I'd be interested to read as I'm living in Madrid and no one has mentioned being laid off yet.
> Social isolation and a declared national emergency have had an immediate impact on industries that cluster people; conferences, trade shows, airlines/cruise ships and all types of travel, the hospitability industry, sporting events, theater and movies, restaurants and schools. Large companies are sending employees to work at home. Large retail chains are shutting down their stores. While the impact on small businesses and workers in the “gig-economy” hasn’t made the news, it will be worse for them. They have fewer cash reserves and less margin of error for managing sudden downturns. The ripple and feedback effect of all of these closures will have a major impact on our economy, as each industry that gets impacted puts people out of work, and those laid off workers don’t buy products and services.
> It’s no longer business as usual for the rest of the economy. In fact, shutting down the economy for a pandemic has never happened. Millions of jobs may be lost in the next few months, as entire industries get devastated, something not seen since the Great Depression of 1929-39. I hope that I’m very wrong, but the impact of this virus social and economic effects are likely to be profound, and will change how we shop, travel and work for years.
I too hope Blank is wrong, but it's hard to disagree with his logic.
Unless governments worldwide act aggressively now to keep businesses -- and families -- afloat, a scarily large number of them look likely to face ruin in the near future. Consider the vast mass of families who have no savings and would suddenly lose their income.
If you're running or working for a startup, please read the entire post.
The fed has been acting extraordinarily aggressively - which on one hand good news they're acting aggressively, but on the other hand a lot of people are taken aback by just how aggressive the response is since the fed is kind of signalling that they think this is as bad as 2008 or 1929 and are taking action, which is worse than many were originally thinking it was.
The big issue right now is that the data suggests that 15% of people over 80 and 7% of people over 70 could die from this. If it turns out that those numbers are incorrect or that a medical treatment or preventative measure is discovered which drastically changes those numbers we could see a huge reversal of behavior. If the numbers get close to flu numbers people will want to know why we don't shut the economy down every year for the flu.
I don't agree with this logic. Startups need to pivot. This creates opportunity. If we all go into recession groupthink, that's what will happen.
Big companies aren't serving the current needs and market well. Startups can go in, and serve new markets better. There are a million open beachhead markets right now.
We need to re-ramp our economy as in WWII, not shut it down.
I strongly agree. I can't stop thinking about the potential to completely revamp our society.
The business opportunities and needs are there. Whether it's automating the service worker industries, fully shifting to work from home, new ways of virtual communication, etc. Much of the infrastructure (primarily internet) is there to support it.
This would require an elimination of low paid jobs, which are the typical jobs preventing social distancing. Assuming we can follow a "nobody left behind" mentality (UBI?), imagine the progress we'd make if we raised the bar of entry-level jobs. Investments in creative and new education programs would follow.
Of course, I'm overly optimistic about this, but the potential is there because the whole country (USA) is on the same page right now. Congress is drafting up a stimulus package, which is essentially UBI. It's a very interesting experiment and I really hope we make the most of it and evolve our society and culture.
My established B2C SaaS app business is already seeing a steep drop in signups, activity, and sales this week. Feels like it's going to be a tough fight for survival, and already taking a lot of steps to begin turtle-mode.
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[ 1.8 ms ] story [ 54.5 ms ] threadIt's not only the virus, is the deep economical effects it is having. Massive layoffs now in Spain, the economy is basically at full stop.
If you don't do it, it's not only you who will suffer. Everyone will.
Please, please, be responsible. Not only for your elders but for everything else. Don't wait until it becomes personal, you get relatives infected or you lose your job or your business. Every time you don't act is way more people infected, way more people dead, way more people with problems.
Make homemade masks if you need to. Wear them no matter what other think.
Learn from others mistakes. Don't undervaluate the situation. You should understand this situation as a war-like one, but in your own soil.
I saw it coming, didn't have to go through the denial phase, but it makes me nervous nonetheless. It's different to know about something than going through it. If you are calmed now, take advantage of that emotional state to plan ahead, you will perform better.
This requires such a strong shift in paradigm that they will need to see things falling apart or people dying close to them until they act.
Believe me, I went through 2008 and it was hard here in Spain, but this is something different. You're nervous not only for your economical future but for your health and the health of your loved ones, and it's an invisible enemy.
The government is saying that this is a huge crisis, but a temporal one. Society is closing down and pretty much everyone agrees that this is bad and is going to be for long.
Those of you who know what's coming, you should make your best effort. I regret I didn't go way more vocal of fears of being dismissed as an alarmist.
Just look for ERTEs. Not to mention that most SMEs are not prepared to deal with an almost 100% income down.
> It’s no longer business as usual for the rest of the economy. In fact, shutting down the economy for a pandemic has never happened. Millions of jobs may be lost in the next few months, as entire industries get devastated, something not seen since the Great Depression of 1929-39. I hope that I’m very wrong, but the impact of this virus social and economic effects are likely to be profound, and will change how we shop, travel and work for years.
I too hope Blank is wrong, but it's hard to disagree with his logic.
Unless governments worldwide act aggressively now to keep businesses -- and families -- afloat, a scarily large number of them look likely to face ruin in the near future. Consider the vast mass of families who have no savings and would suddenly lose their income.
If you're running or working for a startup, please read the entire post.
My initial guess would be the existence of a flu vaccine.
Big companies aren't serving the current needs and market well. Startups can go in, and serve new markets better. There are a million open beachhead markets right now.
We need to re-ramp our economy as in WWII, not shut it down.
The business opportunities and needs are there. Whether it's automating the service worker industries, fully shifting to work from home, new ways of virtual communication, etc. Much of the infrastructure (primarily internet) is there to support it.
This would require an elimination of low paid jobs, which are the typical jobs preventing social distancing. Assuming we can follow a "nobody left behind" mentality (UBI?), imagine the progress we'd make if we raised the bar of entry-level jobs. Investments in creative and new education programs would follow.
Of course, I'm overly optimistic about this, but the potential is there because the whole country (USA) is on the same page right now. Congress is drafting up a stimulus package, which is essentially UBI. It's a very interesting experiment and I really hope we make the most of it and evolve our society and culture.