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Ask HN: What special offers do you see on the stock market right now?

20 points by wsieroci ↗ HN
Hi,

regarding coronavirus stocks declines, what special offers do you see on the stock market right now?

Cheers, Wiktor

34 comments

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Havoc
Give it another two three weeks at least
lm28469
They wouldn't be "special" if they were discussed on public forums.
Max-20
TBH thats bollocks as well as the frequent platitude that 'Its already priced in..' or that the professional investors are so sophisticated that normal people don‘t have a chance so why bother
throwaway3563
Don’t know why downvoted, it’s clear what’s meant here. Nobody’s expecting to find inside info and if GP is going to only offer platitudes then why bother even clicking in the thread?
lm28469
A working strategy stops working the day everyone applies it. It's not that you don't have a chance, simply don't expect people to tell you what to do.
marketgod
That's not really true. Mine has been working and I have been posting my trades for people. What's funny is as the number of people following the trade grows, the odds of the trade hitting has been going up since.
rwmurrayVT
USO long dated calls. It's $1.76 a share for $5 strike price on Jan 2022. That's a 36% increase from the current share price of $4.99. The 52 week high is $13.86. I can't imagine the current oil war will continue for another 2 years.
anonu
You may be missing the forest for the trees. The oil market has fundamentally shifted in the last decade. The US is energy independent with its massive oil projects and unfettered access to fracking and tar sands and what not. Don't catch a falling knife.

Case in point: Look at natural gas. We've been in a gas glut for a decade plus+ (https://pages.etflogic.io/?ticker=UNG for example, https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=m1 ). Big infrastructure builds and special cryo tanks are everywhere. Gas has never recovered from its 2008 peak... The same has played out and is playing out in crude.

throw51319
But if oil war ends in next 18 months, and demand goes back to where it was (which it will in 18 months)... why would things not go back to how they were 2 months ago?
blaser-waffle
1) will the oil war end in 18 months? (probably, but who knows how things will play out)

2) will demand for oil pick up? there are a lot of business hurting bad now, and lots more shuttering. the work-remote thing is out of the bag, and remote work for office types may just be a thing for here on out.

rwmurrayVT
You're right. The market has shifted in the last decade. That's why USO dropped from 60-100 before 2008, stayed around 40 until 2015, and then maintained 10-13 ever since. There's no way it won't rebound slightly when this ends.

If you're risk adverse the $2 calls Jan 21st, 2022 are $3.35. Required move to break even is 9.91%. It dropped 50% MTD. I don't need a full recovery, just a minimum of 10% over the next 2 years.

anonu
> just a minimum of 10% over the next 2 years.

Misleading... Sure breakeven is 10% if you assume all-else-equal. Your path to profitability is path dependent. If it moved 10% tomorrow, you would probably be hard-pressed to make any money considering spreads and other trading costs. You really need a bigger move to breakeven in a short amount of time.

FlopV
Correct me if I'm wrong but believe he's talking about 2 years out to acctaully purchase the stock ?
rwmurrayVT
That's not correct, nor misleading. The breakeven point would need to be met on the day of expiration. If it shot up 10% tomorrow I would be profitable. I'd still have the value associated with theta less volatility.
nicholas73
You know that USO does not hold physical oil, but futures contracts, right? Futures contracts are now in heavy contango (front month is cheaper than following month). That means every month USO has to roll over these contracts by selling front and buying next month, so USO will lose value over time as long as these conditions persist.

You might already know this but that is why USO can lose value over time (the opposite was true when oil was higher). So careful with the timing.

rwmurrayVT
Up 11% since yesterday. I know that it is risky, but I just figure at some point in the next 2 years it will work out.
nicholas73
The point is that contango is like a slow trickle that decays your value. That doesn't mean it can't go up due to larger fluctuating factors. But over time is does go down while in that state, so it's not a buy and hold play.

Basically you need the virus situation to abate, along with OPEC price wars to end. And it needs to happen very soon (check the spread between front month and next month oil futures).

jumbopapa
just buy VTI. No use in speculating when VTI alone will go buy 50% to reach the previous highs.
hak8or
You might as well go for vt at that point. It's the total global market. The USA is a massive portion of this anways, so it's just extra diversification.
kls
I shorted Royal Caribbean on the way down and am now buying shares. I figure most of the impact is priced in, I am a long hold on them now and we will see where it shakes out when it is all over. They have an extremely loyal customer base.
nknealk
Many cruise lines are trading below the book value of equity. Carnival is one example.

Oil probably won’t stay at $30ish/barrel for long. High quality oil companies aren’t likely to go bankrupt (eg. Exxon, Valero, Chevron).

Senior assisted living REITs are in the gutter. VTR comes to mind.

However, if you’re thinking of investing I strongly recommend a broad-market ETF. VOO for the S&P 500 or VTI to go even more broad are good bets.

PhantomGremlin
Why buy VOO if SPY has very liquid options available? Gives you much more flexibility.
neural_thing
Ahem. The same Carnival that has a quick ratio of about 0.2 and whose revenues are going to decline by 90%? Hard pass. It's equity value is all in cruise ships. Can you imagine those selling at anything close to par right now?
[dead] doingmyting
Are you expecting that no one will ever set foot on a cruise for the rest of human existence? There obviously will be hardship for them in the near and medium term but everyone knows cruises will return just as strong as they were before the crisis. Might take years but it'll return
anonu
There's no free lunch.

Anyone with valuable stock tips will not share them here.

I will share one piece of investing advice though. Good fund managers - on average - make their money on good sector selection and not so much on good stock selection.

Other special offers: Free trading on every major brokerage platform. That's a fundamental shift from just a year ago...

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throw51319
BTC is going to go up as an anti-inflationary store of value after the US announces massive cash being injected at all angles into the system. Once this virus passes in 18 months, there will be a ton more money and not a lot more assets. Yet BTC will stay steady. So BTC/$ will go up.