"Infection Rate" -> "Infection Ratio" ??? I'm not sure about this, but rate is somewhat related to velocity instead of the % of the population. [Hi form Argentina!]
Perhaps you should say near the top that the initial numbers are from Germany. Most people will assume they are from USA, but I think Germany has a better that ICU/Population than most countries.
I don't understand how the "Duration of Disease" affect the simulation. If I use a stupid large number like 100 days, the spread of the infection is delayed, but it must make the peak higher. You should calculate somewhere
total population * infection ratio * duration of disease = 83M * 70% * 7 days
so you need like 40M night in the ICU in the hospital.
People will blame you for using a Gaussian. It is not 100% accurate, but it is a good enough approximation. The decay is too fast, so it may not fit the initial and final values very well.
I don't like the "Last infected person" specially because the information says "end of the bell curve", but the curve goes forever. My guess is that you are using the day when the number of infected persons in the model is less than 1.
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[ 33.9 ms ] story [ 388 ms ] thread"to fast" -> "too fast"
"Infection Rate" -> "Infection Ratio" ??? I'm not sure about this, but rate is somewhat related to velocity instead of the % of the population. [Hi form Argentina!]
Perhaps you should say near the top that the initial numbers are from Germany. Most people will assume they are from USA, but I think Germany has a better that ICU/Population than most countries.
I don't understand how the "Duration of Disease" affect the simulation. If I use a stupid large number like 100 days, the spread of the infection is delayed, but it must make the peak higher. You should calculate somewhere
total population * infection ratio * duration of disease = 83M * 70% * 7 days
so you need like 40M night in the ICU in the hospital.
People will blame you for using a Gaussian. It is not 100% accurate, but it is a good enough approximation. The decay is too fast, so it may not fit the initial and final values very well.
I don't like the "Last infected person" specially because the information says "end of the bell curve", but the curve goes forever. My guess is that you are using the day when the number of infected persons in the model is less than 1.