Unfunded liabilities are future liabilities projected out 75 years.
Much of it will never come to pass. For example, the part that constitutes Social Security can and almost certainly will be mostly wiped away in an instant by increasing the retirement age by a few years and increasing the payroll tax cut-off.
And I'll bet you a beer that the $132 trillion figure is calculated using year-of-expenditure, not constant dollars, which means the predictions are literally inflated.
I tried to confirm but couldn't find the original sources and methodology. AFAIU year-of-expenditure is typical and best practice for long-term budgeting, but laypeople invariably compare it to constant dollar costs, which makes such figures seem larger than they really are, particularly when they include up to 75 years of monetary inflation. For example, California High-speed Rail is always quoted in year-of-expenditure. Much of the difference in the original ~$30 billion figure to the current seemingly insane ~$100 billion figure is because the construction timeline was stretched out by another decade or more since the original proposal. The longer construction takes, the more inflation figures into projections, the greater the figures, the less public support there is, the more construction is delayed by scared politicians, etc. It's a horrible cycle.
I actually had no idea most long-term projects were presented in year-of-expenditure dollars. As someone who pays attention to this stuff, if I didn't realize, I'd wager nobody voting realizes this either.
Exactly. It's nothing new either. The retirement age was last increased in 1983. As people live longer we need to adjust payments into the trust, retirement age, and payments from the trust proportionally.
This is going to be an interesting conundrum, however, when one considers that both Gen X and Millennials are projected to live shorter lives than the Baby Boomers.
More is good, but the NIH alone is already spending $2.8 billion/year on Alzheimer's research https://www.alz.org/get-involved-now/advocate/research-fundi... and that's not including spending from other government agencies (both US and international), charities, or pharma companies.
$23.6 trillion plus whatever else this situation will cost. I would guess $5-7 trillion more, at a minimum, because it will cost $1.2 trillion a month for shelter-in-place UBI.. and then however much of many trillions in loans go into default or are forgiven.
Some additional spending on unemployment insurance, SNAP, and some other programs that are going to be hit harder with millions of people out of work overnight. But overall, there is actually more spending directed towards businesses here than towards individuals ($775b for business vs $560b for UBI and unemployment).
It's pretty funny to see Democrats patting themselves on the back about what a good deal they got for working americans. This is pretty much a handout to big business, and they wrote you a token check to get it shoved through.
No, what passed was a one-time payment. Due to the Senate recess it was pass their bill, unmodified, or pass nothing at all.
There is some general talk in the house (in particular on the left) that this isn't really enough to handle what is shaping up to be a 4-6 month crisis at absolute minimum and we should do additional payments in the future but that's not what passed, and it's unclear whether the Senate has any willingness to pass anything further.
The Senate took off from DC for a month so nothing will be done before they get back. On this or any other coronavirus-related legislation.
>...and the millions that Bill Gates asked for pandemic research 5 years ago.
I for one really regret I haven't been chipped yet from Bills ID2020 program. I wish it could be funded. The only people who could be against it are the anti-science nutters.
I'm sure the EULA of the chip program will include both a robust privacy policy and a CoC.
I’m not able to access this content, but I’ve noticed several theories about specific chronic diseases being the effects of persistent infections that haven’t been widely recognized as such.
If any of the theories are true, it means that many research efforts have been unwitting attempts at turning symptomatic carriers into asymptomatic ones.
Most autoimmune disorders are either infections or gut dysbiosis, which is actually pretty close to an infection too.
It's sad the establishment is taking so long to accept this. There are papers in Nature / Science showing really strong evidence for some autoimmune disorders.
Have the establishment really been pushing against these ideas that hard? Molecular mimicry seems to be a rather old idea, but I'm thinking that the push back is maybe more about what to do with this idea treatment wise. You've definitely done more research and reading in this area, so perhaps you could expound on how the establishment is being slow?
I was given a preliminary diagnosis for an auto immune (Sjogrens) because among other weird symptoms I put down that antibiotics would resolve symptoms for several weeks.
Doctor had noticed that people with Sjogrens often did better on antibiotics. He informed to find a rhumotogist that understood this.
I can’t find any locally, and mentioning it gets me dismissed.
They have been taught that it’s nonsense and they refuse to listen.
I don't know much about this issue, but there is precedent where a doctor who discovered that stomach ulcers were cause by bacteria could not get any recognition for years.
He ended up making a broth with the infection, and purposefully infecting himself to demonstrate his findings. Only then he was believed.
> The establishment(God I hate that word) all pretty much agree that the majority of autoimmune diseases are a self misclassification.
Certainly not the majority, there are a lot of very severe auto-immune diseases that are very real.
I had my immune system attack my thyroid gland 30 years ago (Graves Disease) and had to have it ablated completely with radioactive Iodine 131. My TSH was 0.00.
I was skinny, angry, and losing my mind prior to being diagnosed.
After stabilizing me (I just have to take Synthroid for the rest of my life), everything is normal again.
I think the point was that "Most autoimmune disorders are either infections or gut dysbiosis" is only true because "the majority of autoimmune diseases are a self misclassification." That is, most autoimmunue disorders [discussed as such online] aren't actually autoimmune disorders.
> Preclinical data have indicated that microorganisms associated with periodontal disease may contribute to the pathology of Alzheimer's disease.
I read damage to the nasal epithelium can allow pathogens to reach the brain:
"New research from Griffith University has shown that damage to the lining inside the nose increases the risk of bacteria sneaking into the brain via nerves, potentially causing long-term health issues." ... "Bacteria and viruses, and resultant neuroinflammation, may even contribute to neurodegenerative disorders, such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases"
> "The olfactory epithelium is a specialized epithelial tissue inside the nasal cavity that is involved in smell. In humans, it measures 9 cm2 (3 centimetres by 3 centimetres) and lies on the roof of the nasal cavity about 7 cm above and behind the nostrils."
IANAD, but fingers can presumably increase the bacterial and viral load on the mucous membranes. Smear infections are a thing, hence the recommendation to not touch one's face during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. On the other hand, nasal crusting is presumably also acts as petri dish. Clearly our nostrils are appropriately sized such that our fingers can fulfill a cleaning function, and this is also observed in other great apes with dry nostrils.
Some researcher even suggested digesting dried mucous (read eating it) may be beneficial for the immune system as it allows it to build antibodies to novel viruses: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dried_nasal_mucus
I wonder why picking ones nose is considered gross (and eating it doubly so).
Is it simply a weird quirk of our society? Kids will naturally do it right? Are there examples of other societies where its considered to be fine?
or both, allergies make you over conscious about nose pipes, sometimes I cannot tolerate any clogging and if tissue forbid me to unclog them I'll maniacally 'find a way'
Although rare, amoebas found in untreated water can cause fatal brain infections if they get in your nasal passage[0], via neti-pots or swimming, for example.
If you pluck those hairs, germs and particles near the follicles can get inside and cause an infection. He described the concept of a "danger triangle," or the area on the face between your mouth and nose that's susceptible to passing infections on to the brain.
They published an article after this on it, showing good results in 2017[1] with a large author list, and they have a new trial underway[2]. Would be a ridiculously cheap therapy.
I wonder how early one would need to start treatment to have an effect, and if you could somehow start it a decade or more before symptoms begin, would it maybe prevent onset all together? Since it begins 20 years before the onset of symptoms.
If this ends up being true, does it lead to any potential lifestyle changes or medical interventions that could help lower one's risk of Alzheimer's? Are these infections measurable and curable with antibiotics or something, and we just don't bother doing it because there are no noticeable short-term effects?
I have a strong belief that there definitely are lifestyle changes you can make in order to lower your chances of getting Alzheimer's, and there is some support for them, although they need more research in order to confirm the exact magnitude and effect. Some of the ones which I believe are worth taking a closer look at are listed below:
– Another interesting link: In India, people have a much lower incidence of Alzheimer’s, and one of the primary reason is usually attributed to Indians eating a lot of Turmeric. It turns out in fact that one of the primary compounds in Turmeric is Curcumin, and its shown to help against herpes: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2668156/
Our current issue today is the we wait for things to go wrong and then we attempt to address them instead of trying to find the root cause and proactively trying to tackle the problem early. At the same time, finding the root isn’t necessarily easy, and performing longitudinal studies that would confirm a lot of these hypothesis would also be extremely difficult to implement, so I don’t necessarily have the solution to addressing the problem.
Some factors which I may have already listed above and which I strongly suggest you implement if you do want to lead a healthier life and prevent dementia are provided below:
– Daily exercise (both aerobic intertwined with strength training).
– Daily fasting (eating in a 4 – 8 hour window along with periodic 2-3 day fasts).
– Healthy diet: Stick to a mostly plant based diet. Eliminate high-glycemic index simple carbohydrates...
The theory of infectious origin of the Alzheimer's disease
The hypothesis that Alzheimer's disease has an infectious origin, has a long and controversial history. The data at the origin of this hypothesis are contradictory and mainly associative in nature, without it being possible to demonstrate a causal link. Interest in this theory has been renewed, however, by several recently published observations. In the section Viewpoint de la revue Nature Reviews Neurology, Ben Readhead, a researcher at the Biodesign Institute's ASU-Banner Center for Research on Neurodegenerative Diseases, joined several distinguished colleagues to discuss the idea that bacteria, viruses or other infectious pathogens can play a role in Alzheimer's disease.
First, it has been shown that the amyloid β can act as an antimicrobial peptide and that selected microorganisms can seed the deposition of Aβ in mouse models.
Second, genetic data has rekindled interest in the role of herpesviruses, in particular the human Herpes 6 virus (HHV6), in Alzheimer's disease.
Third, the epidemiological data from Taiwan suggests that antiherpetic drugs reduce the risk of dementia.
Preclinical data have indicated that microorganisms associated with periodontal disease may contribute to the pathology of Alzheimer's disease.
Finally, genetic, pathological and modeling studies of Alzheimer's disease have shown that the immune system plays an important role in Alzheimer's disease.
A hypothesis that has never been favored by researchers
This hypothesis may have been rejected too quickly. For example, microorganisms do not only cause acute illnesses, in fact certain microorganisms can hide in the body for decades in latent form, causing damage intermittently or after long periods of silence.
In addition, being infected does not necessarily mean being symptomatic. For example, out of the millions of people infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, only about a tenth of them will develop tuberculosis. Likewise, most people infected with HSV1 do not develop cold sores so it is possible that asymptomatic carriers of this virus were often mistakenly included in the control groups. It should also be noted that many viruses of the Herpes family (HSV1, HSV2, VZV) live preferentially in neurons.
A role for an infectious agent - in particular the herpes simplex 1 virus (HSV1) - in Alzheimer's disease (Alzheimer's disease) was proposed about 30 years ago based discovery of HSV1 DNA in the brain tissue of a large proportion of the elderly, followed by evidence that e the virus confers a high risk of disease to carriers of the ε4 allele of the gene apolipoprotein E (APOE * ε4).
Shortly after the detection of HSV1 DNA, two different species of bacteria, Borrelia burgdorferi and Chlamydia pneumoniae, were implicated in Alzheimer's disease, and a third species, Porphyromonas gingivalis, was recently added to the list.
Doubts remain, however
Nevertheless, it is known that an acute end-of-life infection, such as pneumonia, can cause a dramatic increase in the amount of microorganisms in the brain. They will then be detected post-mortem but that does not mean that these microorganisms are at the origin of the Alzheimer's disease. In addition, the issue of reverse causation is never really addressed: For example, clinical Alzheimer's disease can lead to poor dental hygiene and, therefore, damage to the oral microbiome.
Indeed, there are many challenges to prove the theory of microbial origin of Alzheimer's disease. A potential challenge is that each drug has a relatively ...
> One may also wonder why bacteria or viruses would escape the innate innate immune defense mechanisms, which are responsible for protecting the brain against such an invasion.
Well there is Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis. Which is a delayed complication of measles that happens from months to decades after infection.
> Preclinical data have indicated that microorganisms associated with periodontal disease may contribute to the pathology of Alzheimer's disease.
That shouldn't be too hard to test: is the proportion of dentists and dental hygienists with Alzheimer's significantly different from the general population? It's just a homework problem for a Biostatistics course.
There are a wide variety of ways to test this, yet no significant link has been found. I see this hypothesis come up a lot on HN. It’s a favorite around here.
Consider this: HN generally attracts the intelligent type of personality. What scares that type of personality most? Losing the gift of intelligence. What is the most common thing that can take that away? Dementia. How do you make yourself feel safer about such an unpredictable thing as dementia? Convince yourself that it’s caused by something that can easily be controlled with modern medicine - microbes. It’s not so scary anymore, is it?
It's just sad that we've had this theory for over thirty years and continued to pursue the amyloid hypothesis in spite of overwhelming failure of treatments targeting amyloid.
My father has fairly late-stage Alzheimers and I can't help but think we'd have a treatment by now.
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76 comments
[ 3.3 ms ] story [ 145 ms ] threadAfter this one is over, perhaps we can add a few billion for research into diseases like Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, pancreatic cancer, etc ...
...and the millions that Bill Gates asked for pandemic research 5 years ago.
Much of it will never come to pass. For example, the part that constitutes Social Security can and almost certainly will be mostly wiped away in an instant by increasing the retirement age by a few years and increasing the payroll tax cut-off.
And I'll bet you a beer that the $132 trillion figure is calculated using year-of-expenditure, not constant dollars, which means the predictions are literally inflated.
I tried to confirm but couldn't find the original sources and methodology. AFAIU year-of-expenditure is typical and best practice for long-term budgeting, but laypeople invariably compare it to constant dollar costs, which makes such figures seem larger than they really are, particularly when they include up to 75 years of monetary inflation. For example, California High-speed Rail is always quoted in year-of-expenditure. Much of the difference in the original ~$30 billion figure to the current seemingly insane ~$100 billion figure is because the construction timeline was stretched out by another decade or more since the original proposal. The longer construction takes, the more inflation figures into projections, the greater the figures, the less public support there is, the more construction is delayed by scared politicians, etc. It's a horrible cycle.
https://www.ssa.gov/planners/retire/background.html
Failure is essential to learning.
Doing the same thing again and again is the opposite of learning.
https://usdebtclock.org
Some additional spending on unemployment insurance, SNAP, and some other programs that are going to be hit harder with millions of people out of work overnight. But overall, there is actually more spending directed towards businesses here than towards individuals ($775b for business vs $560b for UBI and unemployment).
https://i.redd.it/7ji35fxrq4p41.png
It's pretty funny to see Democrats patting themselves on the back about what a good deal they got for working americans. This is pretty much a handout to big business, and they wrote you a token check to get it shoved through.
There is some general talk in the house (in particular on the left) that this isn't really enough to handle what is shaping up to be a 4-6 month crisis at absolute minimum and we should do additional payments in the future but that's not what passed, and it's unclear whether the Senate has any willingness to pass anything further.
The Senate took off from DC for a month so nothing will be done before they get back. On this or any other coronavirus-related legislation.
I for one really regret I haven't been chipped yet from Bills ID2020 program. I wish it could be funded. The only people who could be against it are the anti-science nutters.
I'm sure the EULA of the chip program will include both a robust privacy policy and a CoC.
If any of the theories are true, it means that many research efforts have been unwitting attempts at turning symptomatic carriers into asymptomatic ones.
It's sad the establishment is taking so long to accept this. There are papers in Nature / Science showing really strong evidence for some autoimmune disorders.
See this previous thread for an extended discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21917884
I was given a preliminary diagnosis for an auto immune (Sjogrens) because among other weird symptoms I put down that antibiotics would resolve symptoms for several weeks.
Doctor had noticed that people with Sjogrens often did better on antibiotics. He informed to find a rhumotogist that understood this.
I can’t find any locally, and mentioning it gets me dismissed.
They have been taught that it’s nonsense and they refuse to listen.
Bringing in research just annoys them.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21911225
TFA looks at one researcher who was looking at antivirals. She has constantly gotten papers rejected and turned down for funding.
He ended up making a broth with the infection, and purposefully infecting himself to demonstrate his findings. Only then he was believed.
https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/the-doctor-who-drank...
The establishment also believes that gut dysbiosis and infections can trigger or play a role in this misclassification too.
The problem is that a lot of enthusiasts believe this insight is a lot more beneficial than it is.
Certainly not the majority, there are a lot of very severe auto-immune diseases that are very real.
I had my immune system attack my thyroid gland 30 years ago (Graves Disease) and had to have it ablated completely with radioactive Iodine 131. My TSH was 0.00.
I was skinny, angry, and losing my mind prior to being diagnosed.
After stabilizing me (I just have to take Synthroid for the rest of my life), everything is normal again.
And yes I agree they are very real and awful my grandmother had rheumatoid arthritis and it was terrible.
My reply was to the link he posted where he talked about auto immune disorders.
I read damage to the nasal epithelium can allow pathogens to reach the brain:
"New research from Griffith University has shown that damage to the lining inside the nose increases the risk of bacteria sneaking into the brain via nerves, potentially causing long-term health issues." ... "Bacteria and viruses, and resultant neuroinflammation, may even contribute to neurodegenerative disorders, such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases"
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-injury-nose-bacteria-...
> "The olfactory epithelium is a specialized epithelial tissue inside the nasal cavity that is involved in smell. In humans, it measures 9 cm2 (3 centimetres by 3 centimetres) and lies on the roof of the nasal cavity about 7 cm above and behind the nostrils."
Some researcher even suggested digesting dried mucous (read eating it) may be beneficial for the immune system as it allows it to build antibodies to novel viruses: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dried_nasal_mucus
Their perspective was "why would you want to SAVE it?" Their method being to lean over, hold one nostril and BLOW.
[0] https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(18)34525-9/pdf
If you pluck those hairs, germs and particles near the follicles can get inside and cause an infection. He described the concept of a "danger triangle," or the area on the face between your mouth and nose that's susceptible to passing infections on to the brain.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-you-shouldnt-pluck-your-...
[0] https://www.alzforum.org/news/conference-coverage/first-phas...
[1] https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-...
[2]https://www.nia.nih.gov/alzheimers/clinical-trials/trx0237-m...
– Regular exercise may delay Alzheimer's in those at high risk of disease: https://inews.co.uk/news/health/regular-exercise-delays-alzh...
– Dr. Dale Bredesen Protocol: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4712873/
– Control Hypertension: https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2020/01/controlling-hype...
– DASH diet: Healthy eating to lower your blood pressure: https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/nutrition-and-h...
– Insulin Resistance and Alzheimer’s Disease: Bioenergetic Linkages: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5671587/
– Alzheimer's Disease Is Type 3 Diabetes–Evidence Reviewed: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2769828/
Some good reading and support for the herpes / viral hypothesis is provided below:
– Alzheimer's risk 10 times lower with herpes medication: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/322463
– Alzheimer’s Disease-Associated β-Amyloid Is Rapidly Seeded by Herpesviridae to Protect against Brain Infection: https://www.cell.com/neuron/fulltext/S0896-6273(18)30526-9
– Another interesting link: In India, people have a much lower incidence of Alzheimer’s, and one of the primary reason is usually attributed to Indians eating a lot of Turmeric. It turns out in fact that one of the primary compounds in Turmeric is Curcumin, and its shown to help against herpes: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2668156/
Our current issue today is the we wait for things to go wrong and then we attempt to address them instead of trying to find the root cause and proactively trying to tackle the problem early. At the same time, finding the root isn’t necessarily easy, and performing longitudinal studies that would confirm a lot of these hypothesis would also be extremely difficult to implement, so I don’t necessarily have the solution to addressing the problem.
Some factors which I may have already listed above and which I strongly suggest you implement if you do want to lead a healthier life and prevent dementia are provided below:
– Daily exercise (both aerobic intertwined with strength training).
– Daily fasting (eating in a 4 – 8 hour window along with periodic 2-3 day fasts).
– Healthy diet: Stick to a mostly plant based diet. Eliminate high-glycemic index simple carbohydrates...
https://web.archive.org/web/20200327181753/https://padiracin...
Full text:
The theory of infectious origin of the Alzheimer's disease The hypothesis that Alzheimer's disease has an infectious origin, has a long and controversial history. The data at the origin of this hypothesis are contradictory and mainly associative in nature, without it being possible to demonstrate a causal link. Interest in this theory has been renewed, however, by several recently published observations. In the section Viewpoint de la revue Nature Reviews Neurology, Ben Readhead, a researcher at the Biodesign Institute's ASU-Banner Center for Research on Neurodegenerative Diseases, joined several distinguished colleagues to discuss the idea that bacteria, viruses or other infectious pathogens can play a role in Alzheimer's disease.
First, it has been shown that the amyloid β can act as an antimicrobial peptide and that selected microorganisms can seed the deposition of Aβ in mouse models.
Second, genetic data has rekindled interest in the role of herpesviruses, in particular the human Herpes 6 virus (HHV6), in Alzheimer's disease.
Third, the epidemiological data from Taiwan suggests that antiherpetic drugs reduce the risk of dementia.
Preclinical data have indicated that microorganisms associated with periodontal disease may contribute to the pathology of Alzheimer's disease.
Finally, genetic, pathological and modeling studies of Alzheimer's disease have shown that the immune system plays an important role in Alzheimer's disease.
A hypothesis that has never been favored by researchers This hypothesis may have been rejected too quickly. For example, microorganisms do not only cause acute illnesses, in fact certain microorganisms can hide in the body for decades in latent form, causing damage intermittently or after long periods of silence.
In addition, being infected does not necessarily mean being symptomatic. For example, out of the millions of people infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, only about a tenth of them will develop tuberculosis. Likewise, most people infected with HSV1 do not develop cold sores so it is possible that asymptomatic carriers of this virus were often mistakenly included in the control groups. It should also be noted that many viruses of the Herpes family (HSV1, HSV2, VZV) live preferentially in neurons.
A role for an infectious agent - in particular the herpes simplex 1 virus (HSV1) - in Alzheimer's disease (Alzheimer's disease) was proposed about 30 years ago based discovery of HSV1 DNA in the brain tissue of a large proportion of the elderly, followed by evidence that e the virus confers a high risk of disease to carriers of the ε4 allele of the gene apolipoprotein E (APOE * ε4).
Shortly after the detection of HSV1 DNA, two different species of bacteria, Borrelia burgdorferi and Chlamydia pneumoniae, were implicated in Alzheimer's disease, and a third species, Porphyromonas gingivalis, was recently added to the list.
Doubts remain, however Nevertheless, it is known that an acute end-of-life infection, such as pneumonia, can cause a dramatic increase in the amount of microorganisms in the brain. They will then be detected post-mortem but that does not mean that these microorganisms are at the origin of the Alzheimer's disease. In addition, the issue of reverse causation is never really addressed: For example, clinical Alzheimer's disease can lead to poor dental hygiene and, therefore, damage to the oral microbiome.
Indeed, there are many challenges to prove the theory of microbial origin of Alzheimer's disease. A potential challenge is that each drug has a relatively ...
Well there is Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis. Which is a delayed complication of measles that happens from months to decades after infection.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subacute_sclerosing_panencepha...
Much like a car rusting out over time due to salt in the winters.
That shouldn't be too hard to test: is the proportion of dentists and dental hygienists with Alzheimer's significantly different from the general population? It's just a homework problem for a Biostatistics course.
Consider this: HN generally attracts the intelligent type of personality. What scares that type of personality most? Losing the gift of intelligence. What is the most common thing that can take that away? Dementia. How do you make yourself feel safer about such an unpredictable thing as dementia? Convince yourself that it’s caused by something that can easily be controlled with modern medicine - microbes. It’s not so scary anymore, is it?
My father has fairly late-stage Alzheimers and I can't help but think we'd have a treatment by now.