For decades large portions of the US population have prided themselves on ignoring whatever the government says. Until the bodies start piling up in their own town, people will not take it seriously, and possibly not even then.
This comment seems to be unpopular but I have to admit, I really do think that a small portion of the US population treats this pandemic as an overblown distraction or treats it as fuel for some other conspiracy theory. I've experienced this first hand as someone I unfortunately live with was very vocal about how the coronavirus was created as a distraction by the media to avert our attentions to something about Iran and some other conspiracy crap. These people exist.
Didn’t help when the President said it was a hoax by political opponents. There’s another segment that believes every word he speaks even though it changes constantly. Also doesn’t help that WHO & CDC said masks don’t help when they have been proven to reduce transmission. So misinformation came from the highest levels of government and experts. The media also didn’t take it seriously (not just Fox News). People formed incorrect opinions and as you said until they see it for themselves it’s not a big deal in their minds since everyone said that for weeks. Not sure if there is a technical term for this when one forms an opinion and won’t change it even when new evidence is introduced.
> For decades large portions of the US population have prided themselves on ignoring whatever the government says.
The fault lies where? The government/state that has lied about pretty much everything or the people who have been lied to?
The amount of "believe government", "trust government", "obey government" throughout social media makes me wonder. Not to mention all the messaging about compliance. Even more astounding coming from someone who has "hack" in their username.
Also, "ignoring the government" to some degree and "civil disobedience" is part of being american. It's what separates the US from Britain, EU, China, etc.
Just to add to your point, the Surgeon General recently advised "don't wear masks". I personally disobey this every time I step out of my apartment. And I'm proud of that.
WHats this flattening point. I keep doing the graph but anyone know what they are using for ICUs that would even flatten the curve and the delta we are missing it by? Its just seems like so blanketed that it seems like its damn if we do damn if we don't
Doesn't it vary highly on the location and its surrounding population density? That's probably why it's so vague. But why does it matter? Exponential growth can reach extremely high numbers in short iterations. Maybe a smaller hospital in Ney Jersey will be overwhelmed a few days before a larger hospital in New York would be.
Because we can figure out the rate and inform people how much distancing they can do. I don't think this is tenable. IN SF, for example, April 7th is the date restaurants/bar are all openings again. This city is filled with smart people, but its very apparent if a max rate of daily interaction is shown people will start to ignore it. Honestly, they already are.
Local and state governments do simulations for the resources in their jurisdictions. I have seen some posted for NJ but can’t find them now and they would be out of date by now.
That is insanity. Flat is absolutely the best we can do. Herd immunity is a fallacy when the result of loosening social distancing restrictions is to overwhelm the medical system and cause unnecessary death.
Let young people congregate? A healthy fraction of those hospitalized with COVID-19 are young. They may survive better, but they take up a lot of ventilators in the process. Run out of ventilators and those young people will die in large numbers.
No, the only reasonable endgame to COVID-19 is to flatten the curve and keep it flat until we have some treatment tools that work. Ultimately, a vaccine. But until then, drug therapies that have been proven out in reasonably sized trials.
> Among the first 4,226 cases in the U.S., more than half of patients who were hospitalized were under the age of 65, and one in five were aged 20 to 44.
No source on ventilators but "hospitalized" is close enough.
This seems to be one of those lies that keep getting circulated. 44 is not young. when you really look at the data yes 1/5 are hospitalized, but if you 40-50 you are .4% likely to die if your 30-40 it's 4 times less likely .1% and if your 20 -30 its ten times less likely. Its like they presented the data that way just to scare people.
What? Why don't we not risk another wave by letting people out and instead just wait for a vaccine before completely resuming normality. Less people die this way.
12-18 months of quarantine has both a direct and indirect cost to life as well. For the indirect - shutting everything down for a couple of weeks has already created ENORMOUS financial stress for millions now out of work. Many of these people don't have a month of savings left for bills let alone 18 months (which is beyond the recommended runway to have in savings for those already better off) and society isn't prepared to pickup the cost for them either.
Vaccine takes years to make a year and a half is a guess. No pandemic is cure that way, sars, zika, etc. They all end with herd immunity. and if we wait to long those people making the vaccine would starve long before that during the economic collapse anyway.
Theres a MIT article about this. At some point this has to be lifted because the area of the curve will stay the same. 100,000 ICU is 100,000 ICU we are just spreading it out but we need to be efficient with the pace of it.
I think the implication was that hospital staffs are overworked with Covid-19 but that normal every day emergency situations are still going to happen.
More test would lower that number not increase it. They are testing people who go into the ICU testing at this point would be for people not in the ICU dropping that number like a rock
I stopped reading stories cause of this. Your likelyhood of getting critically ill is very small. The issue was never that it was always that our capacity since everyone will probably get sick is very small, but we aren't acting as if this is what we are dealing with
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[ 3.8 ms ] story [ 46.0 ms ] threadThe fault lies where? The government/state that has lied about pretty much everything or the people who have been lied to?
The amount of "believe government", "trust government", "obey government" throughout social media makes me wonder. Not to mention all the messaging about compliance. Even more astounding coming from someone who has "hack" in their username.
Also, "ignoring the government" to some degree and "civil disobedience" is part of being american. It's what separates the US from Britain, EU, China, etc.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163761/Chinese-mar...
How long until the next time we have to endure millions of deaths, trillions in lost economic activity, and months of quarantine?
Meanwhile, we still have a domestic Fifth Column accusing anyone who calls the CCP's virus the "China Virus" of racism.
We’ve flatlined at about 100 new cases a day. At that rate, we won’t get heard immunity for many decades.
If we raise quarantine in May it’ll just start spreading again, and we’ll have kicked the can down the road.
I think we should start considering letting young, healthy people return to public spaces, should they so desire.
Let young people congregate? A healthy fraction of those hospitalized with COVID-19 are young. They may survive better, but they take up a lot of ventilators in the process. Run out of ventilators and those young people will die in large numbers.
No, the only reasonable endgame to COVID-19 is to flatten the curve and keep it flat until we have some treatment tools that work. Ultimately, a vaccine. But until then, drug therapies that have been proven out in reasonably sized trials.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
> Among the first 4,226 cases in the U.S., more than half of patients who were hospitalized were under the age of 65, and one in five were aged 20 to 44.
No source on ventilators but "hospitalized" is close enough.
We're not going to stay in lockdown for 18 months, which is what the estimate is for a cure.
If it's true that covid-19 doesn't like warm temperatures, that would be great, but that's still 2 months away for the USA.
Otherwise we need to start thinking of when to end lockdown, whether that's ideal or not.
For the past two weeks we've been averaging 100-200 identified cases a day in King County. New cases has not been growing much since lock down.
King County population is 2,233,163. 200 new cases a day means 50% exposure (for heard immunity) will come in 5,583 days... over 15 years from now.
Unnecessary fear setting. Not even close to all of us will need to go to the hospital at all.
Example, last time I looked at the stats, 20-40 had 0.2-0.4% chance of being critically ill from covid19.
Source? Because I think you'd need a lot more testing to say for sure, at least in the US