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Hope this goes better than the when there were unintended consequences from the UK and the US overthrowing the government of Iran. Seems like every time outsiders decide to topple some regime, something worse pops up in its place. That might be hard to imagine with how terrible North Korea currently is, but there are ways for it to be even worse.
The case of North Korea will be very different from (insert middle east/central american country here). It's surrounded with robust countries like China, South Korea and Japan. There are so many interests that it's impossible for a simple militia or a government of their own to hold a grasp. They will go down and they will be absorbed by their neighbors. At least for now.
so after aplitting korea into north and south (as they are know all around the world), the US will again split north korea into west/east. will it be east korea? or north east korea?
I figured it already is. China could make N Korea stop their shenanigans any time, but they don't. I figure they like having them there most the time stiring things up. And if they wanted to actually start trouble having them start it would provide a layer of deniability.
NK's nukes are just as much pointed at China as they are pointed at the US/SK. If China decides to choke off their oil NK will be sure to remind China that if their regime falls, they'll be sure to lob some missiles in China's direction first. Thinking of NK is purely a Chinese puppet instead of an independent actor with their own wants and freedom of action really limits the geopolitical cards the US could play here. Imagine if the US could flip NK like how Nixon flipped China against the USSR.
Many ways that would cost China and NK much more than the US. That's how you play the game, make it hurt more for your opponents than yourself. Right now, even the possibility that NK could flip to the US makes China treat NK with baby gloves, and as a result they have a nuclear capable country right on their border. You think China's leaders are happy about that? It's another potential hotspot they have to worry about that could spill into China in addition to all the other hotspots they have to deal with thanks to the fact that China borders more countries than any other in the world. More stress on the Chinese government = more ways they can screw up. +1 for America.
The "kid" in the phrase "kid gloves" doesn't refer to children. It refers instead to leather made from kid goats. Kidskin leather is thinner and softer than other kinds of leather, and doesn't leave smudges on delicate articles. Hence the phrase "kid glove treatment", implying handling something with delicacy and tact.
If the history of the world teaches anything, it's that "don't worry, the effects of this will be small and contained" is always false. (Insert inevitable Godwinism here.)
South Korea should be worried about the cost of such a reunification. East Germany was in much better shape than North Korea and the Germany reunification still took a lot of money and time to do. Building up North Korea will be very hard.
Not to mention that East Germany still suffers from economic stigmas that still haven’t gone away 30 years after reunification. It doesn’t get the same kind of investment or attention that West Germany does today.
One fairly high-profile (yet topical) example of this is the top flight of German Football. East German teams rarely even make the German Bundesliga[0], and my understanding is that there’s currently only one Eastern German team in the 20-team league.
I sort of agree with you on the idea but top flight soccer teams are a bad example. That requires fans / high population density and then investment from a group into paying and attracting players. West German is much more dense. You’d also have to look at the distribution of top flight teams when Germany was separated, which was probably still population density skewed.
It's a bit different this time, South Korea is keenly aware of the cost and already has allocated a lot of money towards the possibility. Last I've heard a tax and much larger fund has been proposed by various politicians though I'm not sure what the state of that is today. Furthermore, it seems to be greatly beneficial for Korea in the long term due to the abundance of natural resources in North Korea. Goldman Sachs for example predicted in 2009 that a unified Korea would be the largest economy in the G7 after the US in 30 years.
If cost wasn't an issue, rich countries could already take in millions of refugees from countries where life is very hard. Or they could pump trillions into the countries. They don't because cost is an issue. I am not sure if South Koreans are very happy about the prospect of paying for a reunification. A lot of West Germans would have been perfectly OK with East Germany staying its own democratic state.
Look, I get that you mean that it's worth paying a high cost to stop all that suffering, but the cost not nothing.
The reason it's important to me to say so is that at some point, some actual people with actual (limited) resources, will have to devise a plan to make it all better, and then actually do the plan. That is a huge challenge that involves trade offs and hard decisions. And if you start with magical thinking, instead of extremely realistic reasoning, you're going to end up hurting a lot of people.
They can probably learn from the German reunion. A lot of mistakes could have been avoided, like letting western companies buy and close east German companies that were previously owned by the state, or closing eastern youth organizations.
If anything, South Korean politicians are terrified by the perspective of North Korean regime falling.
For political reasons, reunification would be inevitable. It has been the stated goal of politicians for decades.
For economical reasons, reunification would be devastating. South Korea is not exactly poor, but the amount it would take to lift North Korea to a living standard which is not outrageously low (let alone comparable to the South) would be immense, and the living standards of South would plummet very significantly. This is a totally different kind of deal than reunification of Germany.
For cultural reasons, reunification would be a tough cookie. Nearly 70 years apart, in strict isolation, and under a constant inescapable brainwashing made North Korean culture drastically different from Southern Korean. Even the language evolved differently (and totalitarian regimes are keen to control and bend the everyday language to match their narrative). Now North and South are not separated brothers but more like distant cousins who grew separated by an ocean.
So South Korea will try to keep North Korea going as much as possible without losing face.
Source: a few lectures by experts in the question.
Or the US could use it as a chance to reduce tensions.
Tell China they can control the territory in exchage for them stopping all hostilities in the South China Sea (where they falsely try to claim international waters by building artificial islands.)
That + making NK a nuclear free zone could be a compromise that benefits everyone
While China supports the existence of North Korea, it would be a stretch to say that they control it. The CCP leadership has been exasperated by many decisions taken by the North Korean leadership, but they simply believe overlooking North Korea's erratic actions is better than allowing it to pass into South Korea or the USA’s influence.
>Tell China they can control the territory in exchage for them stopping all hostilities in the South China Sea
What does China gain here? Integrating North Korea would be no simple task, and there would be no real military benefit over the current situation. Meanwhile they'd give up their (legitimately weak) claim over parts of the South China Sea oil reserves and trade routes.
>That + making NK a nuclear free zone could be a compromise that benefits everyone
North Korea has been offering that compromise for decades, the US refuses to make all of Korea a nuclear bomb free zone.
>What does China gain here? Integrating North Korea would be no simple task
They don't need to run it directly. Just replace Kim with some council of generals that's a little less extreme.
They'd gain the buffer they want between them and SK, international recognition - the South China thing is one of the few instances of them projecting force outside their borders.
If they couple a less aggressive stance on the South China Seas with their usual belt and road spending, they'd be playing the optimal strategy. After all, that's how the USA beat the USSR: outspend them until they collapse in on themselves.
>North Korea has been offering that compromise for decades
North Korea is in no position to offer anything. They would be wiped off the earth if they used their nukes.
>North Korea is in no position to offer anything. They would be wiped off the earth if they used their nukes.
They would be wiped off the earth if the US used their nukes at any point for the past sixty years. That's why they desired nukes. If you fear North Korea using them then stop threatening then.
>If you fear North Korea using them then stop threatening then.
You can't threaten "then" with self defense. I live in a stand your ground state. If someone starts getting violent, and I remind them of the potential consequences of their actions, I cannot be charged with a crime.
Thought to be clear, I don't think NK should be pre-emptively nuked. And I don't think they should be invaded.
But they can't have it both ways. They regularly get away with things that would be acts of war if done by a larger nation (like shelling SK territory).
>Thought to be clear, I don't think NK should be pre-emptively nuked. And I don't think they should be invaded
It's only been sixty years since the US literally razed the entire country to the ground. It doesn't need to happen again for them to be worried that it might, particularly as we have had nukes pointed at their face for the entire time. This is clearly a threat, not "self defense."
>But they can't have it both ways. They regularly get away with things that would be acts of war if done by a larger nation (like shelling SK territory).
Ignoring the fact that they are already at war with South Korea and the US, the US has continued economic warfare on the country killing uncountable amounts of people over that time. Many North Korean actions are inexcusable, but they are not the sole bad actors in this conflict.
This sounds like propaganda looking to provoke NK leadership. No super secret coup is having articles posted on msn about them...or you know they'd all be dead...
"They acted with military efficiency, according to testimony from the seven embassy staff members inside. Brandishing fake guns, they bound the wrists of the North Koreans and placed bags over their heads."
One of the problem for groups working on NK issues is that SK heavily penetrates them at the human and technical level in order to control and mostly disrupt their operations. It goes in swings and roundabouts but SK is at best ambivalent about these sort of operations. Especially as government policy changes. It makes working on NK operations like this quite tricky.
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[ 9.4 ms ] story [ 126 ms ] threadhttps://web.archive.org/web/20200403225044/https://www.wsj.c...
Edit:
From the FAQ for HN:
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Edit: Also, thank you for the working link.
EDIT:
Actually that doesn't even seem to be working now.
What does work is adding ?fbclid=xxxx to the end of the URL.
This site works sometimes.
I have javascript disabled and see no paywall.
Edit: All other discussion occurred after this point. It's possible the paywall prevented discussion.
The "kid" in the phrase "kid gloves" doesn't refer to children. It refers instead to leather made from kid goats. Kidskin leather is thinner and softer than other kinds of leather, and doesn't leave smudges on delicate articles. Hence the phrase "kid glove treatment", implying handling something with delicacy and tact.
One fairly high-profile (yet topical) example of this is the top flight of German Football. East German teams rarely even make the German Bundesliga[0], and my understanding is that there’s currently only one Eastern German team in the 20-team league.
0: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/17/west-g...
Building up North Korea isn't hard, living in North Korea is hard.
The reason it's important to me to say so is that at some point, some actual people with actual (limited) resources, will have to devise a plan to make it all better, and then actually do the plan. That is a huge challenge that involves trade offs and hard decisions. And if you start with magical thinking, instead of extremely realistic reasoning, you're going to end up hurting a lot of people.
For political reasons, reunification would be inevitable. It has been the stated goal of politicians for decades.
For economical reasons, reunification would be devastating. South Korea is not exactly poor, but the amount it would take to lift North Korea to a living standard which is not outrageously low (let alone comparable to the South) would be immense, and the living standards of South would plummet very significantly. This is a totally different kind of deal than reunification of Germany.
For cultural reasons, reunification would be a tough cookie. Nearly 70 years apart, in strict isolation, and under a constant inescapable brainwashing made North Korean culture drastically different from Southern Korean. Even the language evolved differently (and totalitarian regimes are keen to control and bend the everyday language to match their narrative). Now North and South are not separated brothers but more like distant cousins who grew separated by an ocean.
So South Korea will try to keep North Korea going as much as possible without losing face.
Source: a few lectures by experts in the question.
Tell China they can control the territory in exchage for them stopping all hostilities in the South China Sea (where they falsely try to claim international waters by building artificial islands.)
That + making NK a nuclear free zone could be a compromise that benefits everyone
What does China gain here? Integrating North Korea would be no simple task, and there would be no real military benefit over the current situation. Meanwhile they'd give up their (legitimately weak) claim over parts of the South China Sea oil reserves and trade routes.
>That + making NK a nuclear free zone could be a compromise that benefits everyone
North Korea has been offering that compromise for decades, the US refuses to make all of Korea a nuclear bomb free zone.
They don't need to run it directly. Just replace Kim with some council of generals that's a little less extreme.
They'd gain the buffer they want between them and SK, international recognition - the South China thing is one of the few instances of them projecting force outside their borders.
If they couple a less aggressive stance on the South China Seas with their usual belt and road spending, they'd be playing the optimal strategy. After all, that's how the USA beat the USSR: outspend them until they collapse in on themselves.
>North Korea has been offering that compromise for decades
North Korea is in no position to offer anything. They would be wiped off the earth if they used their nukes.
They would be wiped off the earth if the US used their nukes at any point for the past sixty years. That's why they desired nukes. If you fear North Korea using them then stop threatening then.
You can't threaten "then" with self defense. I live in a stand your ground state. If someone starts getting violent, and I remind them of the potential consequences of their actions, I cannot be charged with a crime.
Thought to be clear, I don't think NK should be pre-emptively nuked. And I don't think they should be invaded.
But they can't have it both ways. They regularly get away with things that would be acts of war if done by a larger nation (like shelling SK territory).
It's only been sixty years since the US literally razed the entire country to the ground. It doesn't need to happen again for them to be worried that it might, particularly as we have had nukes pointed at their face for the entire time. This is clearly a threat, not "self defense."
>But they can't have it both ways. They regularly get away with things that would be acts of war if done by a larger nation (like shelling SK territory).
Ignoring the fact that they are already at war with South Korea and the US, the US has continued economic warfare on the country killing uncountable amounts of people over that time. Many North Korean actions are inexcusable, but they are not the sole bad actors in this conflict.
Is there such a thing as reckless treason?
Also, this would be a wonderful movie!
Hearts are in the right place, but I advise them to leave the ops to the professionals.