I think it's probable, but I wouldn't say its safe to assume.
We haven't found a vaccine for HIV yet, despite a huge global effort over the last 35+ years.
The vaccine for influenza only works on some strains and has to be re-developed every year. Influenza is still a top 10 cause of death in the US despite ~40% of the population getting vaccinated.
A Hepatitis B vaccine was developed in the 1980s, but no one could develop one for Hepatitis C (though it is now curable with drugs).
The current vaccine for dengue fever virus, which infects 400M people annually and kills 40,000, is not widely distributed because it increases the risk of severe infection in some people.
I do think we'll get a vaccine. The amount of research money and scientific attention that's going to be dedicated to COVID-19 over the next year will truly be unprecedented. But we are in uncharted territory.
Vichy justices. The reference is to Vichy France, the French occupation government that collaborated with the Germans during World War II. He’s saying the five right-leaning justices on the Supreme Court are collaborators with Trumpism, in the same way the French leaders of the Vichy government were collaborators with Nazism.
All these people who keep saying “if this were World War II we would be cranking out vaccines and ventilators overnight” really need to read up on the first year of American involvement in World War II.
Pearl Harbor was attacked on December 7, 1941. American forces didn’t win a real victory until the Battle of Midway in June 1942 - six months later. American planes didn’t start bombing Europe until June 1942 either. And It wasn’t until the invasion of Guadalcanal (July 1942) that American ground forces were able to take offensive action against the Axis.
Big efforts take time to pull together, particularly when you start them from a completely unprepared state. And with this thing, as in December 1941, we were definitely unprepared.
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[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 20.7 ms ] thread(2) we continue in quasi-lockdown mode for the rest of our lives"
Isn't it safe to assume we'll get a vaccine? I do see us dealing with this until then but not more than 18 months.
We haven't found a vaccine for HIV yet, despite a huge global effort over the last 35+ years.
The vaccine for influenza only works on some strains and has to be re-developed every year. Influenza is still a top 10 cause of death in the US despite ~40% of the population getting vaccinated.
A Hepatitis B vaccine was developed in the 1980s, but no one could develop one for Hepatitis C (though it is now curable with drugs).
The current vaccine for dengue fever virus, which infects 400M people annually and kills 40,000, is not widely distributed because it increases the risk of severe infection in some people.
I do think we'll get a vaccine. The amount of research money and scientific attention that's going to be dedicated to COVID-19 over the next year will truly be unprecedented. But we are in uncharted territory.
Pearl Harbor was attacked on December 7, 1941. American forces didn’t win a real victory until the Battle of Midway in June 1942 - six months later. American planes didn’t start bombing Europe until June 1942 either. And It wasn’t until the invasion of Guadalcanal (July 1942) that American ground forces were able to take offensive action against the Axis.
Big efforts take time to pull together, particularly when you start them from a completely unprepared state. And with this thing, as in December 1941, we were definitely unprepared.