It's a way to pass the time during quarantine. It isn't about baking as much bread as you would normally eat if you were eating at a restaurant. It's about having something to do other than go stir crazy from being confined to home while scared about what's going on.
It's quite useful for us, traditionally we would have done a small shop to top up with bread between normal trips. Now I make a loaf of bread to avoid that journey.
Restaurants in the UK (which the article is about) are currently closed, since it's on lockdown. People want flour at home to make cakes and sourdough bread.
At risk of stating the obvious, but the advantage of making sourdough bread specifically is that you don't need to buy yeast (which is also in short supply), just flour, water, and salt.
To state the other obvious point: GP is arguing that since restaurants don't need the flour that they are usually serving, why isn't shifting delivery enough to fulfill demand? Why do mills have to work overtime? Where have people got their calories before?
It says in the article, they have the flour, it’s a problem of packing. Restaurants were buying large bags, people want small bags. The mills don’t have enough small bags and/or people to fill them.
> Alex Waugh, director general of Nabim, says the issue isn't being able to mill enough flour - but the lack of capacity to pack it into small bags for retailers.
When was the last time you think most consumers tried to buy anything more than 1kg of flour?
To buy in bulk wholesale restaurants and bakeries don't go to the local supermarket, they go straight to the source, or through a wholesale grocer or supplier.
Many of my local restaurants are buying extra 50lb flour sacks and making 2lb ziplock bags of flour go customers to buy. They are having no problem getting their delivery each day, and they barely have half the custom, so they have plenty to spare.
The thing about 50lb sacks is that you can't store the flour in the sack after you open it -- and very few homeowners have enough sealed containers to put 50lbs of flour in, nor the cabinet space to put them in.
My local store does stock 50lb sacks, in addition to the 2, 5, and 10lb home-sized bags.
The small sacks are always sold out, unless you get there before opening (I asked), bit the 50lb sacks last most of the day each day.
I managed to snag the very last 10lb yesterday morning, so I can finally bake again.
What would happen if you double-bagged the 50 lb bag of flour in some big Hefty garbage bags and tied them really tight? I wonder why that wouldn't work for keeping the flour fresh for at least a couple months?
Well yeah, but I'm still keeping the flour in the paper flour sack (with it rolled up tightly), so the plastic bag encompassing it doesn't actually come in contact with any of the flour. It's just there to keep air, moisture, and bugs out.
I have heard anecdotally that some grocery stores are starting to carry 25lb bags. Another grocery store apparently started having their bakery rebag flour into smaller bags and sell it.
I made the mistake of buying a 25lb bag of flour a couple years ago. It's a complete pain to store, even as someone with a relatively large american suburban house.
> Alex Waugh, director general of Nabim, says the issue isn't being able to mill enough flour - but the lack of capacity to pack it into small bags for retailers. Only around 4% of UK flour is sold through shops and supermarkets, according to the association. The majority is produced in bulk and delivered in tankers or bags of more than 16kg to bakeries or other food manufacturers.
So there's plenty of flour, it's just that small, home-sized bags used to be 4% of their sales and now that ratio has been flipped on its head and they aren't yet equipped to package it in that way.
Definitely. 16 kg is a large quantity for someone who isn't sure how much they are going to be baking. But it's not a lot of money. Easily less than 10 £/€/US$/AU$.
I was staying home with my kid a few years ago and baking a loaf every week among other things. I bought a larger bag of flour but didn't have a great storage solution and it got bugs in it.
I'm in a privileged position, but to me it hurts more to toss something away than to pay more for smaller portions.
Baking is such a wonderful way to relieve stress and there's so much chemistry involved that it's great for geeks, too. A good book (available in ebook) is The Bread Makers Apprentice: https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/39910
And as the article notes—the demand is not for more flour but just a demand for the same amount of flour but in smaller bags which is exactly what you would expect.
Bread-making is not such an alien or quaint skill set. People have either already made bread, or know someone who makes it. We have friends or family members who are into Martha Stewart, Food Network, or Bon Appétit.
Especially with the internet, we are not confused people who are panic buying flour, but people who know (or can find out online) that making bread is not especially challenging, it’s just time-consuming, and much of that time is spent waiting. It’s hard to fit making bread into your schedule if you go to work every day, but if you’re stuck at home anyway and the store is low on bread…
The article is literally about a huge increase in demand for more flour by consumers. The industry is "working round the clock" to meet demand. People have a lot of extra time at home so they are baking a lot more, which they did not do in the past. Thankfully there's enough wheat to meet the increased demand, but the bottleneck is currently packaging.
I've personally had to order flour in bulk (50lb bags) online.
> The article is literally about a huge increase in demand for more flour
Demand for flour from grocery stores not overall demand for flour. From the article:
> Grocery sales of flour were up 92%…
> Alex Waugh, director general of Nabim, says the issue isn't being able to mill enough flour - but the lack of capacity to pack it into small bags for retailers.
> Only around 4% of UK flour is sold through shops and supermarkets…
If you multiply that out, the bump in demand would only account for a 4% increase in total flour consumption… but I’m willing to bet dollars to donuts that flour consumption through some other channels (bakeries, restaurants) is down, and you would need to account for that.
I think you may be underestimating the sudden impact on the demand for flour and wheat during the pandemic. There are two behaviors that did not exist too much before. First, a vast number of consumers are suddenly stockpiling larger quantities of not only flour but other nonperishable goods such as breads and cereals and pastas. Before they only had enough quantity for days or weeks. Now it is on the order of months. Second, people are baking a lot more as a hobby/comfort food/stress relief than before the pandemic.
Certainly some channels have closed (like dine-in restaurants), but some are still operating strongly (e.g. Dominos Pizza is experiencing massive increase in demand).
> "We've increased production about four-fold but we're nowhere close to meeting the demand we've seen."
In terms of the overall impact on the flour/wheat market it's hard to tell, but I'd be guessing that it's double-digit % increase in demand. It would be interesting to see some exact numbers on this.
What you’re describing is a shock to the supply chain and distribution, but not a problem with the amount of flour. Any panic buying is temporary. Buyers simply cannot exhaust our capacity to produce flour in the steady state, but since the supply chain responds so slowly to changes, they can cause temporary disruption.
For anyone looking for flour, I suggest looking for stores that supply local small businesses and restaurants with supplies. I stopped by my local "Smart Food Service" (formerly Cash & Carry) for something else and noticed that they appeared to have decent stock of all their flour. Although the sizes were larger than you'd find at the grocery store, the overall price per pound was cheaper.
33 comments
[ 3.5 ms ] story [ 77.1 ms ] thread> Alex Waugh, director general of Nabim, says the issue isn't being able to mill enough flour - but the lack of capacity to pack it into small bags for retailers.
When was the last time you think most consumers tried to buy anything more than 1kg of flour?
To buy in bulk wholesale restaurants and bakeries don't go to the local supermarket, they go straight to the source, or through a wholesale grocer or supplier.
> Only around 4% of UK flour is sold through shops and supermarkets
> existing packing lines can't easily be adapted to produce smaller retail bags.
The thing about 50lb sacks is that you can't store the flour in the sack after you open it -- and very few homeowners have enough sealed containers to put 50lbs of flour in, nor the cabinet space to put them in.
My local store does stock 50lb sacks, in addition to the 2, 5, and 10lb home-sized bags.
The small sacks are always sold out, unless you get there before opening (I asked), bit the 50lb sacks last most of the day each day.
I managed to snag the very last 10lb yesterday morning, so I can finally bake again.
You could make it into ship's biscuit. It'll keep for years, and you can always use it in soup or something.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyjcJUGuFVg
What would happen if you double-bagged the 50 lb bag of flour in some big Hefty garbage bags and tied them really tight? I wonder why that wouldn't work for keeping the flour fresh for at least a couple months?
They could be made with materials that would leach harmful compounds into the food, or packaged in unsanitary conditions.
I made the mistake of buying a 25lb bag of flour a couple years ago. It's a complete pain to store, even as someone with a relatively large american suburban house.
So there's plenty of flour, it's just that small, home-sized bags used to be 4% of their sales and now that ratio has been flipped on its head and they aren't yet equipped to package it in that way.
I'm in a privileged position, but to me it hurts more to toss something away than to pay more for smaller portions.
https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/drought-shrinks-gr...
Bread-making is not such an alien or quaint skill set. People have either already made bread, or know someone who makes it. We have friends or family members who are into Martha Stewart, Food Network, or Bon Appétit.
Especially with the internet, we are not confused people who are panic buying flour, but people who know (or can find out online) that making bread is not especially challenging, it’s just time-consuming, and much of that time is spent waiting. It’s hard to fit making bread into your schedule if you go to work every day, but if you’re stuck at home anyway and the store is low on bread…
I've personally had to order flour in bulk (50lb bags) online.
Demand for flour from grocery stores not overall demand for flour. From the article:
> Grocery sales of flour were up 92%…
> Alex Waugh, director general of Nabim, says the issue isn't being able to mill enough flour - but the lack of capacity to pack it into small bags for retailers.
> Only around 4% of UK flour is sold through shops and supermarkets…
If you multiply that out, the bump in demand would only account for a 4% increase in total flour consumption… but I’m willing to bet dollars to donuts that flour consumption through some other channels (bakeries, restaurants) is down, and you would need to account for that.
Certainly some channels have closed (like dine-in restaurants), but some are still operating strongly (e.g. Dominos Pizza is experiencing massive increase in demand).
> "We've increased production about four-fold but we're nowhere close to meeting the demand we've seen."
In terms of the overall impact on the flour/wheat market it's hard to tell, but I'd be guessing that it's double-digit % increase in demand. It would be interesting to see some exact numbers on this.
Bread is perishable.
It's awesome. Brings a little bright spot to this cloudy situation.