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Is it a coincidence that XCom Chimera Squad was recently released?
This has been on here a number of times. Given how skeptical people are on here, I'm deeply curious what sort of mental gymnastics will be wheeled out to explain this. My bet is 100% on ET space probe. Anyone care to explain how these things move, what is powering them, or who built them?
It is one logical solution to the Fermi paradox: there is no Fermi paradox.

The problem with UFOs is that there is so much cultural and folklore baloney surrounding the topic. But ignore all that and look at actually reliable case data like this. This is not enough to prove anything but it's enough to suggest that we might want to look.

Personally I would not mind seeing an ultra-wide-field (fish eye?) infrared space telescope watching the solar system. Unless ET found a way around the second law of thermodynamics, anything using non-trivial amounts of energy is going to light up like a beacon in the sky in the infrared spectrum far beyond what can be accounted for by normal solar albedo. For example a large nuclear fusion reactor in space would require enormous heat sinks to not melt itself and the entire spacecraft, and any propulsion system capable of fast movement around the solar system or especially interstellar flight is going to be blindingly bright in the infrared when it executes a burn. Call it near field SETI.

A rocket launch from a planet, sure. But something using electric propulsion might not. The exhaust plasma is not super hot, and there's just not that much of it coming out.
Nope. If you are doing anything you are doing work and thus converting energy. The second law is inescapable, and it's one of the most solidly established of all physical laws. If we assume the same laws exist everywhere (quite reasonable) then ET must follow those same laws too.

First, you have to be generating the energy. No reactor or conversion process can be 100% efficient (second law), so you must reject some heat. If it's solar, you have big-ass solar panels that get hot because they are not 100% efficient. The ISS looks like an orbiting Christmas tree in the infrared.

Second, the "rocket" exhaust might be a directed particle beam but whatever is accelerating that exhaust cannot be 100% efficient (second law again). More rejected heat.

Then you have all the other stuff going on. If the inhabitants are biological, life support for a long-duration large scale space flight is going to be pretty energetically expensive. Think of growing crops, bulk biosynthesis of nutrients, and a whole lot of recycling which usually involves a lot of endothermic reactions to break down waste products. If the inhabitants are post-biological (IMHO more likely for star travelers) then you have a whole lot of computronium of some kind. That's a big flying data center in space, and everyone knows how much heat those put off.

... I could keep going forever.

You can reclaim a bit of heat like we do here on Earth with combined-cycle power plants, but there are absolute, hard, inescapable limits to how much. You also hit diminishing returns pretty fast, and keep in mind that a spacecraft has mass constraints it must work within due to delta-V budget and all that. At some point the graphs are gonna cross where it makes more sense just to reject heat, and any rational engineer will pick that point.

You're gonna need a radiator, and there is no way to make that not visible. If you want to hide from the crazy-ass monkeys on the third planet you could try flying with a reflector in the way to block your heat from the Earth-Moon system and reflect it elsewhere, but the problem is that now your reflector will reflect a bunch of incident solar radiation!

Last but not least: we are in theory talking about interstellar visitors here. Anything capable of interstellar travel is by definition capable of generating absolutely vast mind-boggling amounts of energy. The only physical power planets we know of that could theoretically propel you to the stars (at a reasonable enough speed) are some mix of fusion and matter-antimatter annihilation. Even turning that monster of a power plant on to "idle mode" is going to say "here I am!" in the infrared... if someone is actually looking. AFAIK we are not currently looking.

I think you are right they would have ridiculous amounts of energy like you say, to be able to cross space between stars. I don't think that's as much a penalty to detection as you, however. If you have an infinite energy budget, you could easily remove all the heat from the front of your ship via a Peltier cooler and radiate it out the back, for example. Then point your ship at Earth and you are stealthed from heat detection. Not all ships are merchant ships designed to get where they are going as efficiently as possible, after all. Some are designed to get somewhere as quietly as possible.
> Last but not least: we are in theory talking about interstellar visitors here. Anything capable of interstellar travel is by definition capable of generating absolutely vast mind-boggling amounts of energy. The only physical power planets we know of that could theoretically propel you to the stars (at a reasonable enough speed) are some mix of fusion and matter-antimatter annihilation.

You are assuming that they bring the power plant with them. What if the power plant is back home, used just to accelerate the ship to relativistic speeds, and the only power plant for propulsion on the ship just needs to overcome friction from interstellar dust? For example, they could use a laser assisted light sail for departure.

When approaching a destination solar system, they could turn off the on-board propulsion while figuring out if that solar system has any life capable of detecting that propulsion system. If it does, they could adjust their route so that they only use active propulsion when the system's sun is between them and the planet of those lifeforms.

Hypothetically, if an alien civilization powered itself through a mesh of evenly-distributed orbiting solar power stations (a Dyson sphere with one-billionth coverage would still produce in an insane amount of power), would we have any way of noticing?

My hunch on the Fermi paradox is that the space-faring phase of a civilization requires transitioning into immortal software, dodging around the speed limit of c by becoming very old, and very patient. I suspect such life forms ("Space Ents") wouldn't bother trying to communicate with such rapidly churning species as ourselves, other than perhaps collecting data via probes to be perused hundreds of millennia later.

This expands into an infinite tree of maybes. My point is that its worth looking because a satellite with a fish eye IR camera wouldn't be that expensive and the benefit would be huge.

We know for a fact that such a satellite would have a good chance of spotting any star farers that are remotely like us, even if they are significantly more advanced but still "fast" in terms of their energy use and general way of doing things.

Space Ents belong to a long tail of other possibilities, but they also must obey the second law...

I think the 'logical solution' to the fermi paradox is we actually have no clue how common the emergence of life is since we only have a single instance of it to study. It could well be so wildly improbable that the other terms in the equation (e.g. earth-like planets being very common in the universe) become irrelevant.

Another solution I think plausible is the "Rendezvous with Rama" scenario. We assume that we are very important so naturally the aliens must be interested in us, but what if they aren't? What if they don't give a shit about us and have better things to do than play with some bald monkeys?

I wrote a long thread on twitter about my own pet theory, which I've held for a while but which has been recently relevant: these are an autonomous system built by a past civilization to prevent cross-civilization existential threats from emerging and causing harm to others.

https://twitter.com/gfodor/status/1250796830704562176

I don’t see any need for mental gymnastics, government doesn’t exactly have the stellar track record of not lying to public or not conducting physiological warfare on them.

I believe universe must be full of intelligent life, and keep in mind that I got some considerable astrophysics knowledge, but governmental claims mean nothing to me.

I mean, that's fine. I think the government's take on the video is that they don't know what it is. I'll assume you don't buy that. What's your take? They got the pilots to go on lots of news interviews after they got out of the service and say they got their asses handed to them by a tic-tac craft they couldn't identify? What's the interest in that for them? Just curious, cause I don't get far taking the ultra skeptic position in this. I don't get many answers and most of the things I come up with don't seem to make much sense for the government to want people to think. Like, what would be the point of making people believe there is something buzzing around that they couldn't handle? In my experience, they want you to believe they can handle absolutely anything, no matter what, even when you know deep down they couldn't.
There are too many possibilities to list why government might’ve decided to share this information, but couple of them that I can think of:

1. They want to create misinformation for other countries and waste their time. Perhaps to capture some high-up spy.

2. They want public to be open for existence of aliens. With new TESS and JWST satellites, there is good chance we will find proof of intelligent life very soon.

3. Perhaps they already captured some scout craft and want people not to panic when they release such information.

Apparently, no real gymnastics needed — just some domain knowledge. I was also freaked out by these videos until I saw this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7jcBGLIpus
My friend, I'm sorry, but you really think this explains anything? As others have pointed out in this thread, this is for people who want this to be an understood phenomenon and are willing to turn their brain off to get there. Navy pilots can recognize planes and balloons, they aren't wowed and mystified by such objects. This video is just weak.
> Navy pilots can recognize planes and balloons, they aren't wowed and mystified by such objects.

I think you should consider the possibility that they are deliberately deceiving you. That certainly seems to be the case with the 'go fast' video. Public information on the gimbal camera equipment is lacking, but if the USN is willing to lie about the go fast video, they'd be willing to mislead people about the others as well.

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I just answered another post in a similar manner, but you bring it up, so I will reply to you as well. Why would the US navy want anyone to believe there is something buzzing about that they couldn't identify, and according to the pilots account, could literally smoke their ass? Have you noticed them saying such things in the past? I have not. Also, I am 100% sure they DO NOT want you to believe such a thing exists. In my experience, they want you to believe they could handle absolutely anything, that they are the baddest dudes who ever walked the earth, and you are 100% safe with them protecting you. Or something to that effect. Seriously, why would they lie about this? Does this position square up with any of their interests? Skepticism is fine, but not when it literally runs afoul of basic common sense.
> Why would the US navy want anyone to believe there is something buzzing about that they couldn't identify, and according to the pilots account, could literally smoke their ass?

Maybe they think people will assume they're lying about skunkworks type technology, when in reality they're just lying about a weather balloon. This was my original assumption, that they were teasing the existence of radically new technology. However I think the conclusion that the gofast video actually shows a balloon is pretty damn airtight.

Your multiple appeals to authority are just that.

If you can't debunk the math, take some.

Yes, I do find a bunch of navy pilots to be far better qualified to judge the object than this Mick West guy. They are literally trained to recognize this exact sort of object and motion. I guess they are wrong though cause they didn't make a video that says what a certain segment wants to hear.
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Trying to distract the conspiracy theorists away from COVID-19, to minimize the harm that misinformation may be causing? Is this conspiracinception?
Are the covid and the UFO conspiracy theorists the same ?
Well if you believe covid is transmitted via 5G cell towers or that injecting disinfectant may cure you, they are pretty mich in the trash bin.
I'm not sure there's a big population of people who want to inject anything or that 5G transmits covid - in fact, even in those quarantined subs on Reddit, those aren't mentioned.

Many of them were called "conspiracy nuts" when they accused China of mass burning bodies and lying about death rates - something the US intelligence community has now confirmed.

>> I'm not sure there's a big population of people who want to inject anything or that 5G transmits covid - in fact, even in those quarantined subs on Reddit, those aren't mentioned.

There is a "big population" that believes anything the orange man tells them. It's been probed and will be probed again.

As far as China is concerned there is no news that communist regimes are pathological liars. It's part of the (censorship) system

> There is a "big population" that believes anything the orange man tells them.

This kind of hyperbole is not appropriate for this site.

> As far as China is concerned there is no news that communist regimes are pathological liars

Except that every media source, the John Hopkins tracker, every major health department including the WHO, the virologists and epidemiologist communities, and nearly every gov't was repeating the Chinese data - EVERY DAY.

None of them contradicted them.

The people in "those communities" were calling bullshit the entire time, and collecting tons of first-hand accounts of the lies.

...only to be lumped in now as "conspiracy theorists" with the real nuts that are "injecting disinfectants" (which hasn't actually been reported anywhere)?

So aren't you doing a tremendous injustice to those (now arrested) people in China who leaked the truth? ...all because you have this emotional hatred of Trump?

Mick West debunked these before:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7jcBGLIpus

From YT comments: Interesting times - the gvmt is releasing UFO videos and enthusiasts start debunking them. It used to be the opposite back in my day.
This explanation sounds plausible. I have a theory that maybe releasing this is also part of strategy to justify spending on the "Space Force" by Trump?...
He's mostly "debunked" them for the group of viewers who really want this to be phenomena we already understand.

The broader group of researchers, who are open to anything from atmospheric physics phenomena to straight up aliens, are worth giving a listen regarding his debunking. IMO they ask good questions.

Have you watched his debunking of the "Go Fast" video? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLyEO0jNt6M) I don't see any wiggle room around what he lays out, certainly not enough to warrant putting 'debunk' into "scarequotes". The object simply was not 'going fast'; it was a weather balloon sized object moving at weather balloon speeds that only looks like it's going fast due to parallax.

The only question in my mind is whether the USN is filled with fools who couldn't figure out what he figured out, or whether they're deliberately fucking with us. I'm strongly inclined to think it's the later.

Dude, navy pilots are trained to recognize this. They've had years now to come out with a statement saying it was a balloon and make it go away. They haven't and this story continues to pester their PR guys. But 'ol Mick here is way smarter than all of the pilots and the Navy experts and he says its a balloon, so they're all full of it and it's a balloon? I can't even begin to describe how dumb this sounds. Get real.
Did you miss the "I'm strongly inclined to think it's the later." part? They're fucking with us.
Lol, let's mind-fuck the public and tell em there's shit running around that can radically outperform our best jets/pilots... Um, No. That's even dumber.
If there is an error in Mick West's debunking of the 'go fast' video that changes the conclusion, then please point it out. How fast do you think it's moving, and why do you think that? Otherwise I'm afraid I have a contrary opinion about who's being dumb here. All you've done in this thread is appeal to authority.
I do not know how fast it is going, but I also don't think this Mick guy can tell from the video either. We can't tell from the video because it does not have the required information for either me or Mick to make a determination. The pilots who took the video are very sure its going fast and I think they are correct. They had the extra sensory info to make that determination and I will side with them over what Mick or I can determine by looking at the video. I'm really surprised I have to say that on a board like this which is supposed to cater to intelligent professionals, but apparently I have to. There is no appeal to authority here, I am pointing out that the people who took the video obviously had information available to them that made them say it was moving and fast, plus they are trained to make precisely that determination. I mean, go believe the ex-dev who makes videos for a living if you want, I'm sticking with the pilots.
I tend to agree that the debunking video is a little too sure of itself with regard to the speeds, though I think we could also be over-estimating the competence of the crew in the videos. Maybe they thought it was moving fast because they didn't take the time in those moments to read their instruments. As for the shapes of the objects, I would accept that they are most likely planes, and the rotation an artifact, but this doesn't rule out the possibility they are some classified new aircraft.
Could it possibly be to inspire young minds, get easily influenced people hyped to a part of the military and perhaps see things no else gets to see?
I just came here to share the same video from Mick West. It does seem that there are very "boring" explanations for the all of this footage.
He does not, he presents explanations that ignore almost half the facts and for the flir video is possibly factually wrong, as the object does seem to move in the video and not only the camera

While the "go fast" video might be a balloon and we lack enough evidence for the 'gimbal' case to dismiss his explanation (or metabunks for that matter) completely, the Context of the 'flir' video, beeing multiple people observing strange tic tac shape crafts (fravor and the other female pilot, so far unnamed), multiple radar systems picking up on them as confirmed by the princeton radar operator and the flir video showing what are possibly unheard of flight characteristics as analysed in this paper https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/21/10/939/htm make these superficial debunking claims rather tedious if not outright disingenuous.

The immediate question that springs to mind is why the US Navy with all its sophisticated technologies were not able to identify these as known aircraft or balloons.

If they could identify these objects, why lie?

If they could not and these are in fact explainable as known craft/balloons, doesn't that imply a serious security risk?

Because the objects are products of the US gov't research.

Most likely, IMO, guided MRVs being tested. ...that's why the folks at ArmsControlWonk are suggesting as well.

Can't watch as I am from Canada :( do we not have UFO's in Canada!?
Sorry, we're not allowed, this content is for Americans only. I mean, they went through the effort to specifically block everyone else, so it must be really important to them, so we should just back off, for important reasons of course.
That's funny because the main news broadcaster in the Netherlands just copied the video and self-hosts it.
This would have more weight if it wasn't from the era of a government that lies about everything.
Harry Reid was U.S. Senator of Nevada, where Area 51 is located. He was one of the most powerful people in Washington D.C. as Senate Majority leader for a decade and a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee. He was in the best position to know everything about UFOs, captured alien craft, and reverse-engineering alien technology. Here is his statement on Twitter:

"I’m glad the Pentagon is finally releasing this footage, but it only scratches the surface of research and materials available. The U.S. needs to take a serious, scientific look at this and any potential national security implications. The American people deserve to be informed."

Or perhaps he’s trying to garner more funding with this news story shrugs
Funding for what? Isn’t he retired?
Retired, yes, though from what I hear still a player in Nevada politics, and I assume has some sort of lobbying-related incoming. (I'm speculating, didn't run a search.)

But he's also really getting up there in years, and he has been agitating about UFOs for a while, so maybe he legitimately wants to know what is up.

How come noone is considering these to be man made phenomena? I.E projections designed to look like solid objects? I saw this phenomenon with my own eyes in the 90’s and it’s very real but space aliens over made made projections? And before this projection idea gets debunked by the fact that this was caught on radar. Recent advancements have enabled the detection of projections via radar.

https://books.google.com/books?id=AZoSALzL3V4C

I talked to someone who has a relative that flys high altitude spy planes about this and he said, “I’ll put it this way. There is nothing flying in the air that we don’t fully understand”.

Gimbal and Gofast lack enough info to not be explained by a baloon or a far away jet confusing the camera operators (i doubt the gimbal explanation due to context but again we lack the data...)

As for the projection idea, that would explain the ability to reach impossible speeds. However as long as this is not demonstrated by anyone your guess is as good as the alien probe guess

> I talked to someone who has a relative that flys high altitude spy planes and he said, “I’ll put it this way. There is nothing flying in the air that we don’t fully understand”.

You see why this might be considered annecdotal at best?

Ahh... yes.

Your somebody's relative's anecdotal proof has definitely put this case to rest. I suggest nobody prose any further questions.

Do we know if this person even has a relative? Maybe they have schizophrenia and it's a relative in their head. My anecdotal idea is that it's probably against some fairly serious oath that those who fly "high altitude spy planes" don't disclose that work to anybody... even relatives... Who knows tho, right?

The consensus within the nuclear proliferation community (at least the community or researchers at the Arms Control Wonk slack channel) believe these to be a test of guided MRVs after a re-entry test.

It seems pretty plausible. The hyper-speed, flying in formation, and the shape of the objects - all seem to be plausible for guided re-entry vehicles for a MRV nuclear missile test.

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Are there any recent, somewhat credible sightings? I mean we have millions of highquality lenses watching the skies, almost everyone has a camera in their pocket. Every piece of video nowadays should be in at least 720p quality, quite clear, even in lower light situations. Quite an upgrade from the potato camera’s of yesteryear.

I’m a skeptic and love to proven wrong, but is this a bit like how there are hardly any miracles anymore?

Looks like the thing was flying at thousands of miles per hour if not more. Probably hard to capture it in clear detail. Or could be that it was intentionally unclear to mislead folks.
The folks over at ArmsControlWonk Slack channel are saying they are probably tests of guided MRV warheads.

It's easy to get objects with no wings to travel at incredible speeds if they are in re-entry. It also explains multiple objects flying in formation.

How about being able to actively camouflage, hop around like a ping pong ball, stop in midair and turn on a dime? The projections idea, as unscrutinized as it is seems much more in line with the description of the objects.
None of those properties are apparent in the videos that have been released. It seems more likely that they'd be a property of the turbulence and relative velocities of the planes vs the re-entry vehicles.

From the videos, you see extreme-speed objects that are banking aggressively, and audio confirmation of them flying in formation. Is there direct evidence of "actively camouflage, hop around like a ping pong ball, stop in midair and turn on a dime"?

The "History" Channel is not an authoritative source, and the pilot himself said on the Joe Rogan podcast that they were taking creative license with a lot of "facts" on the case.

Your 2nd source is a collection of wikipedia snippets and unsourced writting. There's no original source on any of it - nor any indication of authorship. It's scanned and has a few things blacked out to make it look like a gov't document, but there's no indication this was written by any government source.

The pilot repeatedly described the objects as moving erratically. This has been the hallmark description of the objects. Here is another source https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/19/us/pilot-david-fravor-ufo-jim...

Additionally when I saw the objects, they were moving erratically.

It’s not at all surprising that the community your talking about would come to this conclusion although wrong.

Right, but "erratically" is kind of vague. It doesn't mean coming to a complete stop - nor does it mean a turn/acceleration at an "impossible" rate - since they were not able to ever verify their range to the target.

So maybe it was just traveling at high speed, either away or towards them. From that perspective, turns seem to ping-pong despite the object having constant speed.

But, listen - I'm not saying it's definitely not aliens. It might be aliens - I have no idea. But the videos and the pilot's testimony aren't very strong evidence.

...there's also the possibility that the military knows these are MRVs and they had that pilot make a bogus report to help cover their MRV tests.

I hope if the gov't isn't responsible, that they're investing in catching one of these things.

PROJECTION’s. Not aliens. NYT isn’t reporting the reality of what these are. And nobody is. It’s impossible to argue with people who won’t take the description of the objects at face value. Bouncing around like a ping pong ball at super sonic speed and then hovering over the water isn’t something any object with mass can do.
Nobody is? The pilot himself literally said he thought it was aliens.

...and why would you take verbal descriptions of aliens at face value? Extraordinary claims require strong proof. The videos are compelling and warrant further investment in investigation tech.

Also, claiming the objects "moved as if they had no mass" is not supported by either the video NOR the verbal reports.

Apparently there is a higher resolution video. This should help sort this out, my own account is that in the 90's I witnessed this "object" with two other witnesses within eye sight of the now closed El Toro marine base in Orange County, CA. It was in fact moving like a ping pong ball, that is what made it appear so different from anything else in the sky that looked similar to it like stars. With my own personal knowledge I completely believe the pilots and they're accurate and much more detailed descriptions. If you agree that an "It's Aliens" https://imgur.com/rrV0EeO argument requires extra ordinary proof then maybe it makes more sense that we were testing some of this hot new radar tech on our state of the art projection technology. See here for further context: https://books.google.com/books?id=vS0fAQAAIAAJ&source=gbs_si...