This seems to be evidence of the theory that herd immunity is lower than expected due to cross-reactive T-cells lowering the susceptible pool. If I recall correctly, the last serology study of NYC showed ~25% infection rate, which is right where those postulating this theory expect the virus to burn out at.
While this isn't the only ingredient, and physical distancing and awareness play a role, it is good to see more and more locations exhibit the same burn-out pattern. I do not think that there is a single location thus far that does _not_ show this pattern (including Sweden!). The biggest potential outlier is Iran. However, Iran has some similarities to the United States in that a majority of the population lives within dispersed population centers. As such, we should look at each _region_ (as opposed to the country as a whole), when considering the theory above. Much as we must do with the United States. Miami is on it's first wave, as is Houston etc.
What I am really looking for is any evidence of a true second wave, and thus far there hasn't been any. And NYC would be ripe for one. Due to its density, even with the best of intentions, there will be close contact and opportunity to spread the virus.
Long story short, this is very, very, very good news.
EDIT: I want to add, that the refusal many people to see the United States as as collection of different outbreaks as opposed to a single, massive outbreak is very frustrating. We can't have an honest conversation regarding the best response to this virus when everyone is trying to score nation-state points over the fact that the US still has cases. Yes, the first region is _not_ seeing a resurgence. The outbreaks in the South are _new_. They sprang up in the past few weeks. This is fundamentally different than what we saw in the EU, as each country had their outbreaks at around the same time. If you want to compare, compare NY state to others. We can't make progress if continue to be either smug/defensive. This isn't a game.
I urge you to temper your positivity, and reconsider the timeline for a “2nd wave”. Note in the 1918 influenza pandemic, the 2nd wave occurred in the FALL of the following year. If history repeats itself, we may see a 2nd wave in the fall of 2020. Time will tell.
“ The influenza pandemic in the United States occurred in three waves during 1918 and 1919. The first wave began in March 1918 and lasted throughout the summer of 1918. The more devastating second and third waves (the second being the worst) occurred in the fall of 1918 and the spring of 1919.”
I understand the hesitation, and I think even those that are excited by this theory are stoic towards history. However, one thing to note is that this is _not_ the Flu. The influenza virus often mutates far more, far quicker than coronaviruses do. There is certainly reason to be cautious, but there is also reason to be optimistic.
My brother had a temperature and got tested for the SARS-CoV-2, which came back positive. He sheltered away from his pregnant wife, and survived. His wife got tested too, but her test came back negative. Then she had the antibody test, which came back positive.
My working hypothesis is she got the virus and exposed my brother, or they were both exposed at the same time & she was asymptomatic on account of the biochemistry of pregnancy, sorta like all those asymptomatic women who tested positive after they showed up at the hospital in NYC to give birth [6].
NYC took COVID-19 on the chin because the doctors hadn't yet figured out that ventilators aren't needed when the patient is capable of breathing on their own.
This article is the pinnacle of single-variable thinking. What is NYC going to do when the sun goes away for the winter, and coronavirus season comes roaring back? I'm sure the media will castigate the public for daring to take off their masks.
Dr. Zelenko had a good point: patients showed up in his office after 3-5 days of symptoms. It was easy to tell if the patient probably had COVID-19. Why wait another 3 days for a test to come back positive [5], when you can just start treatment the same day with zinc [3], an anti-inflammatory antibiotic (azithromycin), and a zinc ionophore [4]? He said it's about $20 for his course of treatment, whereas if he'd waited for a positive test before initiating treatment the patient would have certainly deteriorated to the point they needed to be hospitalized.
IMHO the United States' medical industry has a tremendous financial incentive to do the most-expensive/least-effective interventions [2], and educates their worker-bee physicians accordingly.
[1] https://twitter.com/zev_dr/status/1280978415131267084 (edit: was originally just a link to @zev_dr, then I found the specific tweet with the video about Dr. Zelenko using his clinical judgement to initiate treatment early.)
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[ 2.5 ms ] story [ 28.3 ms ] threadWhile this isn't the only ingredient, and physical distancing and awareness play a role, it is good to see more and more locations exhibit the same burn-out pattern. I do not think that there is a single location thus far that does _not_ show this pattern (including Sweden!). The biggest potential outlier is Iran. However, Iran has some similarities to the United States in that a majority of the population lives within dispersed population centers. As such, we should look at each _region_ (as opposed to the country as a whole), when considering the theory above. Much as we must do with the United States. Miami is on it's first wave, as is Houston etc.
What I am really looking for is any evidence of a true second wave, and thus far there hasn't been any. And NYC would be ripe for one. Due to its density, even with the best of intentions, there will be close contact and opportunity to spread the virus.
Long story short, this is very, very, very good news.
EDIT: I want to add, that the refusal many people to see the United States as as collection of different outbreaks as opposed to a single, massive outbreak is very frustrating. We can't have an honest conversation regarding the best response to this virus when everyone is trying to score nation-state points over the fact that the US still has cases. Yes, the first region is _not_ seeing a resurgence. The outbreaks in the South are _new_. They sprang up in the past few weeks. This is fundamentally different than what we saw in the EU, as each country had their outbreaks at around the same time. If you want to compare, compare NY state to others. We can't make progress if continue to be either smug/defensive. This isn't a game.
Additional Reading:
Swedish T-Cell study: https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-t...
NYC Serology: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/preliminary-antibodies-...
Study from Levitt et. al.: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140814v...
Study in Cell on T-Cells: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009286742...
Sars-cov-2 has entered moral belief territory, so it's hard to discuss heterdox evidence and theories.
“ The influenza pandemic in the United States occurred in three waves during 1918 and 1919. The first wave began in March 1918 and lasted throughout the summer of 1918. The more devastating second and third waves (the second being the worst) occurred in the fall of 1918 and the spring of 1919.”
https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-deve...
My working hypothesis is she got the virus and exposed my brother, or they were both exposed at the same time & she was asymptomatic on account of the biochemistry of pregnancy, sorta like all those asymptomatic women who tested positive after they showed up at the hospital in NYC to give birth [6].
NYC took COVID-19 on the chin because the doctors hadn't yet figured out that ventilators aren't needed when the patient is capable of breathing on their own.
This article is the pinnacle of single-variable thinking. What is NYC going to do when the sun goes away for the winter, and coronavirus season comes roaring back? I'm sure the media will castigate the public for daring to take off their masks.
Dr. Zelenko had a good point: patients showed up in his office after 3-5 days of symptoms. It was easy to tell if the patient probably had COVID-19. Why wait another 3 days for a test to come back positive [5], when you can just start treatment the same day with zinc [3], an anti-inflammatory antibiotic (azithromycin), and a zinc ionophore [4]? He said it's about $20 for his course of treatment, whereas if he'd waited for a positive test before initiating treatment the patient would have certainly deteriorated to the point they needed to be hospitalized.
IMHO the United States' medical industry has a tremendous financial incentive to do the most-expensive/least-effective interventions [2], and educates their worker-bee physicians accordingly.
[1] https://twitter.com/zev_dr/status/1280978415131267084 (edit: was originally just a link to @zev_dr, then I found the specific tweet with the video about Dr. Zelenko using his clinical judgement to initiate treatment early.)
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21728864
[3] Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2973827/
[4] https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=medcram+zinc+io...
[5] https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202007.0025/v1
[6] https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-in-pregnant-woman-hi...
(edit1: changed the link from @zev_dr to a specific tweet) (edit2: mostly minor changes)