Launch HN: Jika (YC S20) – Price A/B Testing for Shopify
Let’s say you sell shoes on Shopify for $100 and want to test $110. You’d 1-click install the Jika Shopify App and go to a dashboard where you select and start a test for $110. We then handle the heavy lifting of showing price A to 50% of your visitors and price B to the other 50%. As the test is running, Jika keeps track of revenue, conversions, and visitors at each price point. You’d repeat this process as much as you can since the optimal price for a product is always changing.
Up until now, most people have priced off competitors, but that doesn't cut it anymore with big companies getting more and more sophisticated. A prime example of this is Amazon accelerating their development of in-house brands (~640 in late 2019) and using their dataset to outprice other online sellers (2.5m price changes per day in 2013 and more today).
One recent test of a best selling product for a Shopify brand doing 1M+ monthly revenue resulted in a data significant ~10% revenue lift from a -7% price. This better price for the best selling product translates to a ~30k+ monthly revenue increase (~180k+ revenue over 6 months).
I chose to work on pricing because I love optimization. Past optimization includes dropping out of college after 1 year to be a growth (A/B testing) engineer at Pinterest for 3 years and building an app for discounts + promotions at Hulu. In high school, I also optimized enough to be a top 200 player in League of Legends.
Would love to answer any questions or comments below!
PS. If you know anyone on Shopify, I'd love to help them nail down their pricing. :D
104 comments
[ 4.4 ms ] story [ 168 ms ] thread1 - https://vwo.com/blog/ab-testing-price-testing/
2 - http://www.conversionvoodoo.com/blog/2012/12/why-price-elast...
3 - https://prisync.com/blog/price-testing-how-to-test-different...
If your friend finds out you got a "private sale" price, this doesn't seem to violate the "fairness" principle because you were a part of something or got targeted for a reason. It might actually end up increasing the friends FOMO/jealousy and get them to find ways to join in on the discount via mailing lists, insider clubs, etc.
A/B testing pricing might come off as arbitrary and not easily reasoned away thus violating a sense of fairness (at least during testing).
I don't see this as a huge issue as A/B testing is usually limited time/scope but something to think about, I guess.
On a separate note, I assume from the post and the copy on the landing page (that I see) that this tool doesn't help you price discriminate on an individual basis but instead changes the price across a cohort of n segments (A/B/C...) in a round-robin way, doing this is very different from predicting someone's preferences and real-time adjusting the price to a predicted max they would pay. I think people would be right to get really pissed at that, but this seems to just figure out what aggregate pricing should be based on demand (or am I wrong about this OP?)
Heard this podcast a while ago[0] where they discussed main dishes(who new platforms) and side dishes(github apps / shopify apps). At the moment Jika looks like a side dish, which seems well served by the bootstrapping community.
Edit: Add link to podcast
[0]https://www.indiehackers.com/podcast/152-tyler-tringas-and-j...
Including it would sound more credible, and would prevent a typical customer from doing the math in their head of profit margin where this change becomes profitable.
One thing that inspired me to build Jika were the stories of sellers doubling their price and actually increasing their number of conversions. I haven't had a customer like that yet, but I had one person who reduced their price 30% and increased their conversions 5x+. In that case, it's pretty clear there's a winner.
If the product has a 50% margin (sells for $100, costs $50 to source) then your retailer makes $100 for 5 orders instead of $50 for 1 order.
Except they're probably keeping their own inventory, so they now have to keep $250 of inventory for that $100 in profit, rather than $100. This is problematic because a lot of online retailers are limited by their working capital.
This is a drastically simplified example, but the bottom line is that physical retailers think very differently than software sellers.
Great idea for an app either way. I wish you the best of luck with it as you learn the territory. For something similar in the Amazon space (a platform that lends itself much less to split testing) check out splitly.com
Re point 2: in the end increased revenue from better pricing means you're capturing more of the value you're delivering to customers. but yes, there's a brand decision to be made here between 1 price that you always keep the same vs. a changing price that is more optimal.
Re point 3: companies should always be testing their pricing since external factors don't stay the same.
PS: this is also on the blog of a dynamic pricing company so they don't want the people on the fence about handing over pricing control thinking about a/b testing price haha.
1. How do you determine who fits into the A cohort and who fits into the B cohort? If I refresh could I fit into a different cohort and thus see a different price? If I go Incognito?
2. Instead of a 50/50 A/B test, can you multi-arm bandit a handful of different price points and shift a higher proportion to the "best" one? And thus be able to change over time as well?
2. I'd love to implement MAB, but focused on nailing core product for now.
Sorry but that's super obnoxious. No one in their right mind would use the verb "optimize" in this context.
Feel free to downvote, but sometimes you need to call people on their bs.
Edit: Actually I think optimize is appropriate in that context too. To be that good, you have to min/max every game mechanic you can.
Rather they are great because they subconsciously pick up on minute details to learn from in every match they watch and play. Ask a top player why they did some maneuver, and you'll often get an answer like: "Because it's good". There really hasn't been that much system 2 thought put into it.
Being great at a video game is mostly about cultivating an instinct that always makes the right decisions.
For what it's worth, I was grandmaster in starcraft and made a decent salary coaching lower rank players during my highschool years, so I feel my opinion carries some weight at least :)
Unfortunately, I agree that it´s a poor thing to say in a presentation, as it requires people to actually know the game to understand why that would be good. People who don´t play might just think "what do I care that he's good at a game?"
Anecdotally watching and following top e-sports players (in Overwatch in particular) I would see high video game performance as at best a neutral indicator... those archetypes of people are typically very good at the one activity they do all day and very poor at taking care of themselves or sticking to things that don't immediately excite them.
Finally, for many video games are a coping mechanism and may be a better red flag indicator for past trauma, depression, etc.
1. Liability. A result of "raising prices by $10 is 5% more revenue" is not confirmation that raising prices by $10 is a good idea. I expect a non-trivial error rate, especially since most merchants aren't statistics savvy (forming experiments, doing risk analysis and interpreting data is hard). If Shopify causes this, it's a story. Startups will have room to develop features / legal to adjust to the liability concerns
2. Channels. Shopify is a very multi-channel platform and many stores actually rely on Facebook or Instagram integrations and physical stores rather than their online store. To be able to control prices on all these channels is an engineering challenge, and will also further dilute the value of the data. It'll also amplify concerns about pricing-inconsistencies.
3. Just a high-risk idea. Customers don't like seeing different prices. Merchants don't like running experiments that could cause them to lose money. Merchants also like being "good" to their customers by some measure, and some merchants would consider this unfair.
Best of luck though. I can see many stores thinking this is the way to unlock profitability.
Another thing I'd like to add: most of the comments in this thread are assuming price is going to be increased when in reality a good number of merchants are going to actually end up lowering their prices (and serving more customers). In the end, it's all about delivering + capturing as much value as possible.
For starters, a really simple question you could have asked that may update your belief of how weird it is they got into YC: "How much money are they making and how much are they growing per week?"
I just had the impression that YC tries to back more "ambitious" or "important" businesses, but may be I'm wrong about that.
This question sitting at the top further validates that other people are wondering it, so disappointing as it may be - people are curious!
The founder does say that they want to change all of pricing. Even then I'd argue that launching making recurring revenue would have got them more favourable terms with a VC in the future.
First of all, it's a great business. Shopify is exploding like crypto kittens, and with millions of sellers, even if you secure just the top sellers, let's say 1% of the Shopify market, and charge $10,000 per year, that's a 100-million-dollar-business. That's incredible.
From there, you have a choice to either expand further in the market, or start offering more advanced tools to your best customers. Given that Shopify is currently at 100B market cap, yours could be 1B in just a few years, if not sooner.
It's brilliant!
There wasn’t a single successful entrepreneur amongst the “partners” who interviewed us.
Here we are a year or so later flying at 7 figure revenues thankful we didn’t give up nearly 10% of our business to an incubator that’s a shell of its former self.
Therefore I'm afraid that we will see less and less interesting and "out there" YC companies but more confirming ones.
I'm aware that growing has other benefits for YC and its companies, but I'm personally just a bit sad about this...
Edit: I feel like Seibel is the last interesting full-time partner and I wouldn't be surprised if he leaves within 2 years.
do you plan to offer this product for other platforms? the number of Shopify merchants with traffic and sales large enough to get good significance in a timely manor is rather small, IME.
You can't imply that the price "was" $49 and is now $39 when it's also being sold at $29 to another group of customers.
In fact, the whole thing is legally questionable according to EU price fixing laws, not to mention ethically unsound.