Not really an accurate title. The article classifies 89 out of 436 universities as will perish. Most of the article is a condemnation of universities who plan business as normal despite the serious health concerns. Then it goes on to state what factors put universities at risk of shuttering.
All-in-all it does seem like the universities will prefer to lose some percentage of their lives over their livelihoods. On the current path, a 3rd spike seems likely.
Perhaps this is because he's a professor of marketing and unaware, but I would've thought any such analysis would include the huge amounts of $ that universities get from doing federally (and other) funded research. Because that factor basically tells me how much they will hurt (or not) by classes being canceled, more than his other mentioned factors. All he talks about is student tuition fees and endowment, as if schools only have those 2 things to burn through.
Universities heavy on research funding have a revenue source and working population base probably equal or greater than the undergrad population, and are much less likely to fold. Undergraduate education and its revenues are in comparison (to use a term from a favorite professor) a pimple on the ass of graduate and professional research funds for those institutions.
Any colleges/universities that are heavily dependent on undergrads and the tuition they pay (at full unsubsidized rack rate, having little to no science research revenue) are the ones most at risk. I.e. the Sarah Lawrences of this world.
Galloway is specifically calling out the threat to schools getting most of their revenue from tuition and not from research, spin-offs, and endowments.
It seems to me that most schools with substantial D1 football revenues are also R1 universities. Thinking of the "P5" football conferences(SEC, Big 10, 12, PAC 12, ACC) I am not coming up with many low research activity schools.
I think the schools that are likely to shutter are small non prestigious private teaching oriented universities/colleges, very few of which I think are substantially football revenue driven.
Scott Galloway should spend less time making predictions and building his brand, and more time working to improve outcomes for these valuable institutions.
Though some of his predictions are shaky because they don't provide a timeline. Scott Alexander used to do predictions w/ deadlines + estimated probability. If all goes well you should be able to map your predictions on a perfect line, x axis representing estimated probability and y representing actual percentage which happened.
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[ 2.3 ms ] story [ 39.1 ms ] threadAll-in-all it does seem like the universities will prefer to lose some percentage of their lives over their livelihoods. On the current path, a 3rd spike seems likely.
Universities heavy on research funding have a revenue source and working population base probably equal or greater than the undergrad population, and are much less likely to fold. Undergraduate education and its revenues are in comparison (to use a term from a favorite professor) a pimple on the ass of graduate and professional research funds for those institutions.
Any colleges/universities that are heavily dependent on undergrads and the tuition they pay (at full unsubsidized rack rate, having little to no science research revenue) are the ones most at risk. I.e. the Sarah Lawrences of this world.
Stanford just cancelled 11 different sports due to funding issues. Yes, Stanford. [0]
If NCAA football is cancelled, the number of schools closing for good will get much bigger.
[0] - https://news.stanford.edu/2020/07/08/athletics-faq/
I think the schools that are likely to shutter are small non prestigious private teaching oriented universities/colleges, very few of which I think are substantially football revenue driven.
2018-2019: https://www.profgalloway.com/2019-predictions
2019-2020: https://www.profgalloway.com/2020-predictions
Though some of his predictions are shaky because they don't provide a timeline. Scott Alexander used to do predictions w/ deadlines + estimated probability. If all goes well you should be able to map your predictions on a perfect line, x axis representing estimated probability and y representing actual percentage which happened.