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I'm not sure what to take from this.
That climbing the academic ladder in terms of prestige is near impossible if you don't already go to a highly ranked school? I'd wager the other top grad schools in CS source similarly. As fatalist as it seems, if you don't have "it" at undergrad admission time it seems like you're never going to if one goes by this metric.

(When I was bummed out about not getting into any good schools in high school folks said if I did well in undergrad I could get into a good grad school. I was skeptical, and I'm glad to say I was justified in being bummed out!)

This is not true at all. Many people go to stellar PhD programs from not so famous state schools.
I see maybe 3 people on this list that fit that bill. I doubt it's much different at MIT, CMU. Might be different at Berkeley.