You see this kind of reactionary pearl-clutching every day of the history of the human race. NYC will change, as will everywhere on Earth, it is not dead.
The era when some of New York City (even parts of Manhattan) had substandard public services didn't stop hipsters moving there. A city might not be corporately "thriving" with a tax base of such residents, but due to the power of its brand the city can still draw alternative young people and keep the legacy of art and culture going.
New York is desirable because of the other people and businesses in New York as well as being one of the cultural capitals of the world. Those can't be replaced by Zoom calls, no matter how hard we try.
It's more nuanced than that. Not every meeting can be replaced by a Zoom call, but many can. And each time that decision is made, it's less flights, hotels, dining etc being spent in NYC.
It's really not though. Where are you coming up with that? I live in Manhattan and spent the day walking around outside yesterday doing various things and it was very much not dead. There were people out and about everywhere doing things, patronizing businesses, etc.
optimistically i hope this whole thing will serve as a highly aggressive market correction that will help to make cities livable again. it will be interesting to see just how much of a driver culture and food really are when you don't need to live within the same 15 miles as 8 million other people in order to become wealthy or build a career. but for the love of god new yorkers, please go back to nyc none of you know how to drive. also please take the californians with you.
Landlord raised the rent? Seems strange in a city where rents are down 10 to 20 percent and everyone is asking for concessions. Maybe you should renegotiate.
Rents are down, so that will eventually attract people back. A supply and demand problem in the classic case.
Office buildings can be converted to housing in the short run.
In the long run, in-person offices will probably beat distributed teams in many industries, like finance where small margins produce results. Especially since Goldman Sachs probably likes to discuss strategic plans like destabilizing national economies in private and in person.
Near-tautological cycles of real estate appreciation in high demand urban centers have prevented addressing major glaring problems, so a correction to the demand curve and valuations may enable zoning reform in order to get people back to the city.
Finally: why would anyone move to Phoenix with looming global warming?
> Office buildings can be converted to housing in the short run.
This is just not feasible in the short run due to huge costs of extra plumbing and other infrastructure changes. Hotel to housing conversions are much cheaper.
NYC has taxed the wealthy very aggressively to pay for cultural entertainment (to keep the wealthy) and social services that help reelect the politicians who set up this system. Clearly there will be changes coming.
I live in Manhattan and stayed put throughout the pandemic. Compared to months ago, NYC is doing quite well, culturally at least. Yesterday I took a walk from midtown to FiDi and back. Restaurants were open, diners were enjoying outdoor seating, families were out and about, stores were open, bikers were biking, and it really felt like something was back to some semblance of "normal." Not to mention that compared to the rest of the country, it feels like we've passed the worst of the pandemic storm.
There is a whole other financial issue affecting the city right now, however. Tax income is going to drop off a cliff, many stores have closed, and some percentage of wealthy people may leave, which will force the government to confront its sky-high spending and investments in social programs.
NYC will certainly look different, and may take several years to fully recover, but I think declaring it dead at the height of a globe-altering pandemic is premature.
There is also this issue of skyrocketing violent crime that many people are choosing to ignore. As an older person who lived through the "bad old days" of NYC in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s what's happening today is, unfortunately, very reminiscent. The pandemic aside, the utter and total leadership failures of Deblasio and the City Council have led us to where we are. The NYC that many people have come to know and enjoy for the last 25 years is sliding back into a very different kind of city, with our "leaders" doing absolutely nothing to address the issue.
1. Manhattan is not NYC. There are five, count them, five boroughs. Didn’t Johnny T on Glove and Boots teach you numbskulls nothin’? Manhattan is one borough. The author would probably wet his pants if he stepped into Brooklyn, and require a full adult diaper if he found himself on Staten Island. (Exaggeration for humorous effect, but he should know better.)
2. The “how dare you kick my dog, he’s great" posts that show up when NYC is disparaged are par for the course here. They show an admirable love and loyalty for Manhattan and, who knows, they may have read about the Bronx in a book somewhere. There will always be a Manhattan unless they tow it out to sea and sink it. (Imagine the Environmental Impact Statement for that project.) Will the Manhattan of the mid and late 1900s still be around? Paris still thrives, but does the Paris of the 1920s still exist?
3. Waiting for the inevitable dumping on New Jersey that happens when NYC starts getting insecure...
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[ 4.0 ms ] story [ 103 ms ] threadI try to never hire defeatists into my companies and screen for them.
the pendelum will swing back and corporates will see that culture and office also matters.
History is rife with examples.
Calling timing is hard, he may be right but it may not be this time round.
Erm...? I think London, Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo would disagree.
I stopped reading at that point tbh.
My hunch is yes, because it is still a good brand.
The biggest fundamental being challenged now is “Do people need to work in the same physical location?”
It's really not though. Where are you coming up with that? I live in Manhattan and spent the day walking around outside yesterday doing various things and it was very much not dead. There were people out and about everywhere doing things, patronizing businesses, etc.
What makes you think it's "dead"?
I went from phone call to CT Scan in 17 mins at NYP hospital.
Museums open August 24.
Whole Food delivers to my front door. Your local herb friend probably does too. And how many Apple Stores?
Got my new NYC lease. Landlord raised the rent. Guess he’s not buying the doom and gloom?
NYC will do just fine. We’ll figure it out.
:-)
He doesn't think you buy the doom and gloom anyway. You did pay after all.
Office buildings can be converted to housing in the short run.
In the long run, in-person offices will probably beat distributed teams in many industries, like finance where small margins produce results. Especially since Goldman Sachs probably likes to discuss strategic plans like destabilizing national economies in private and in person.
Near-tautological cycles of real estate appreciation in high demand urban centers have prevented addressing major glaring problems, so a correction to the demand curve and valuations may enable zoning reform in order to get people back to the city.
Finally: why would anyone move to Phoenix with looming global warming?
This is just not feasible in the short run due to huge costs of extra plumbing and other infrastructure changes. Hotel to housing conversions are much cheaper.
Early 00s was “9/11 is an inside job”.
10s was “Goldman is a vampire”.
In 2020 it’s “Hollywood perverts and the CIA control the culture and program the people”.
Rents themselves don't attract people. Jobs do. Many jobs now don't require people to be physically present in a large city.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-man-behind-bitcoin-geniu...
I wouldn't take anything he says seriously. There's probably a buck in it for him to flip to write something like this.
There is a whole other financial issue affecting the city right now, however. Tax income is going to drop off a cliff, many stores have closed, and some percentage of wealthy people may leave, which will force the government to confront its sky-high spending and investments in social programs.
NYC will certainly look different, and may take several years to fully recover, but I think declaring it dead at the height of a globe-altering pandemic is premature.
https://gothamist.com/news/49-people-shot-72-hours-wave-gun-...
1. Manhattan is not NYC. There are five, count them, five boroughs. Didn’t Johnny T on Glove and Boots teach you numbskulls nothin’? Manhattan is one borough. The author would probably wet his pants if he stepped into Brooklyn, and require a full adult diaper if he found himself on Staten Island. (Exaggeration for humorous effect, but he should know better.)
2. The “how dare you kick my dog, he’s great" posts that show up when NYC is disparaged are par for the course here. They show an admirable love and loyalty for Manhattan and, who knows, they may have read about the Bronx in a book somewhere. There will always be a Manhattan unless they tow it out to sea and sink it. (Imagine the Environmental Impact Statement for that project.) Will the Manhattan of the mid and late 1900s still be around? Paris still thrives, but does the Paris of the 1920s still exist?
3. Waiting for the inevitable dumping on New Jersey that happens when NYC starts getting insecure...
I suppose it's different now, parts of Brooklyn might matter.
inevitable dumping on New Jersey
Mr. Richard Feder of Fort Lee, New Jersey, is that you? Roseanne Roseannadanna says "you belong in New Jersey".