>"According to various estimates, between 20 and 45 percent of the people who get Covid-19 — and possibly more, according to a recent study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — sail through a coronavirus infection without realizing they ever had it. No fever or chills. No loss of smell or taste. No breathing difficulties. They don’t feel a thing."
PDS: Which leads to the inevitable philosophical question -- is a virus really a virus if it doesn't do anything?
And by extension, is a pandemic really a pandemic? If most people aren't suffering from the effects usually associated with pandemics?
You know, what's interesting is that up until this point in world history -- we've never called Cancer, AIDS, Heart Disease, Diabetes, Drunk Driving, World Hunger, Massive Unemployment/Job Loss, Poverty, Inequality, Racism, Alcohol Addiction, Crime, Terrorism, Social Unrest, Opioid Addiction, Illegal Immigration, Global Warming, World Wars, and the threat of (possibly immediate!) Nuclear Annihilation, or just plain Old Age -- "pandemics".
Perhaps what something is, or isn't -- is all in the languaging...
You know, there are whole industries (employing huge numbers of people!) that have sprang up around just creating problems for other people...
As in, they make money, actual money(!), and lots of it, when other people have problems...
Including (but not limited to!) News Media, Polticians, Lawyers, Medical Cartels, some factions of some Governments, and some Corporations/Big Businesses...
Prove to me that you don't have a vested interest in the outcome of anything you report -- and I'll consider what you have to say.
Otherwise, you're a shill for one complex or another, adding to the cacophony of crap (AKA fake news/false information/disinformation/lies/propaganda/fraud/misrepresentation/sophistry) out there...
>PDS: Which leads to the inevitable philosophical question -- is a virus really a virus if it doesn't do anything?
Yes. A virus is a specific RNA/DNA structure, not the outward symptoms of an illness or ailment.
>And by extension, is a pandemic really a pandemic? If most people aren't suffering from the effects usually associated with pandemics?
Imagina a virus with similar spread, where 70% of the population are to get it (if left unsupervised, no lockdown, etc).
Now say it's even better than this one, in that 90% of them will feel nothing, 9% will have some minor/medium symptoms, but 1% will get serious life-long issues or die.
That gives 2,5 million people in the US with serious issues / death. It very qualifies as a pandemic - considering flu kills about 60-70K every year...
I'm not saying that Covid will reach those numbers (though it might). I'm saying that, never mind, 40-50%, even a virus where 90% people have no symptoms can kill tons of people...
In preparation for responding to your response, I spent a good amount of time reading many of your other comments/responses on HN.
As best I can ascertain from that reading, you are highly, highly intelligent.
That is a compliment, by the way!
Now, in preparation for my response, I believe what you should know is that what I'm going to say is not personal, it's only how I feel, only how I feel at this point in time -- and it could very well be wrong on one or more levels.
OK, with that disclaimer out of the way, here we go:
>"That gives 2,5 million people in the US with serious issues / death."
328.2 million in the US have serious issues / death or eventual death -- DUE TO OLD AGE.
That is, we are not biologically immortal.
Which brings up another philosophical issue:
If the average life expectancy for someone living in the U.S. is 78.93 years (in 2020) -- does this mean that other nations whose life expectancies are less than 78.93 years -- are guilty of killing their citizens early, because they don't follow the "best practices" of the U.S., that is, they don't do exactly what the U.S. does in its governance?
Also, would it be justified then, for those nations to control and micromanage, basically take away all of their citizens' freedoms -- in the name of increasing the average life expectancy of their citizens?
How does the old saying go? "Those who are willing to trade a little bit of their freedom for security -- deserve neither" ?
Every person who lives on God's green earth (or merely "this green earth", if that suits your religious or non-religious predilections better) has a "serious life-long issue", which is called Old Age -- and eventual (guaranteed!) death, due to that condition.
If you're going to give me a number like 2,5 million people in the US with serious issues / death, then please first understand how a statistic like that might be generated (what's the old saying, "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics"?).
Take that number, that statistic -- and please subtract all of the people who had a serious underlying health condition (Cancer, Heart Disease, Obesity, AIDS, Diabetes, or any other serious incurable disease).
Take that number -- and subtract people whose immune systems are compromised due to Old Age.
And take that number, and subtract smokers, drinkers, drug users, and people that don't exercise or eat right.
That number, once you finally refine it, through those filters, is going to be small, very small, much less than what the flu kills (again, remember that covid and flu kills via co-factors, "comorbidities" in medical parlance).
But, that exceedingly small number of people -- represents the exceedingly small number of people who didn't have a choice.
You see, the rest of the people have a choice.
That is, if someone has a known risk factor, a known comorbidity, then they can (and probably should) opt to self-quarantine.
But, not to prevent giving a disease they don't have to others -- but to prevent them from getting a disease which could be fatal to them and them only -- from others.
In other words, government orders and mandates to everyone -- invert the true social responsibility -- from those with the health conditions that require special care, those with comorbid conditions -- to the general population, when the general population is in no way responsible for those individuals' compromised health conditions in the first place.
Now with that out of the way, let's return to your comment:
>"That gives 2,5 million people in the US with serious issues / death."
OK, here's my question: Why do you care?
And here's the thing: You used a comma "," in your figure of 2,5 million.
Why is that important?
It's important because see, people here in the U.S. would have used "2.5 million" ...
> In preparation for responding to your response, I spent a good amount of time reading many of your other comments/responses on HN. As best I can ascertain from that reading, you are highly, highly intelligent.
Greetings. Don't know how you've got to that erroneous conclusion, but I'll go with it :-)
> 328.2 million in the US have serious issues / death or eventual death -- DUE TO OLD AGE. That is, we are not biologically immortal.
Sure. How is that relevant though? We're talking about premature deaths here due to an illness.
The fact that we're not immortal doesn't stop us looking left and right before crossing the street -- or taking all kinds of other precautions (both at the individual, and at the community/government level).
To rephrase: we might not be immortal, but few are that cavalier about dying or eager to die sooner rather than later.
> If the average life expectancy for someone living in the U.S. is 78.93 years (in 2020) -- does this mean that other nations whose life expectancies are less than 78.93 years -- are guilty of killing their citizens early, because they don't follow the "best practices" of the U.S., that is, they don't do exactly what the U.S. does in its governance?
Well, I'm sure about those being the "best", since there exist nations with higher life expectancies.
I'd also say that:
(a) it should be a kind of goal for nations to have their citizens live more and better lives. Isn't better living conditions (from business cooperation and economy, to health, social life, safety, justice, etc.) a basic motivation behind having human communities in the first place (and subsequently things like nations)? I'm pretty sure e.g. Sierra Leone (life expectancy around 54) would want to do much better...
(b) it is however not a be-all-end-all goal, other goals (including preferred way of life, freedom, etc., can always have priority).
> Also, would it be justified then, for those nations to control and micromanage, basically take away all of their citizens' freedoms -- in the name of increasing the average life expectancy of their citizens?
No.
That said, a once-in-100-years pandemic with the potential to kill millions is hardly cause for concern about "micromanaging".
And, I'd like to point out, nobody proposed to "take away all of their citizens' freedoms" (in any democratic country faced with covid), as far as I know. Not even most. Just some, and just for the period necessary to handle the crisis.
> How does the old saying go? "Those who are willing to trade a little bit of their freedom for security -- deserve neither" ?
Well, that's how an old saying goes. But for me it's not some ultimate god-given wisdom about the matters of freedom and safety, just a rough guideline.
On the other hand, those who aren't willing to trade a little bit of freedom for security, might find out they're invaded, enslaved, sick, dead, living in an anarchy (the bad kind, where the more powerful do what they please and there's chaos in the streets, not the friendly "no government" one), and so on, depending on the respective danger they wouldn't trade some freedom to handle.
In other words: freedom doesn't come for free. It requires some sacrifice, and it's bounded by conditions (including safety concerns). Plus, of course, it should not risk/hurt the freedom of others.
Of course someone could say: "I don't care for all that, I want absolute freedom". But others, assuming that person lives in a society, aren't necessarily to agree to that.
> If you're going to give me a number like 2,5 million people in the US with serious issues / death, then please first understand how a statistic like that might be generated
But I did give all the numbers of how it was generated. I didn't say this is a predicted toll of the current covid. What my point was, was: one should not downplay a disease because there are e.g. "50% without symptoms". And I gave a hypothetical example where even 90% without symptoms could still mean millions of deaths from those that do get symptoms (please re-read my wording in the original comment, if you will).
> That number, once you finally refine it, through those filters, is going to be small, very small, much less than what the flu kills
So, let's focus on covid now (and not my prior hypothetical example, meant to point that "percentage of symptomatic patients is not the be-all-end-all criterium).
First, I'm not sure in the covid case the number is "going to be small, very small, much less than what the flu kills".
Why would that be? We already know that covid is several times deadlier than the flu. Why would this increased morbidity only apply to people with major prior conditions and not to everybody (including them, of course)?
That is, if covid is 5x more lethal than the flu, then it kills 5x more old/unhealthy people than the flu, but also 5x more young/"no major prior problem" people than the flu.
Of course it could still have a much heavier toll on the older/unhealthy. E.g. 90% older/co-morbid people dead and 10% younger/healthier people dead (which very much could be the case). But I have not heard anything to imply that the increased leathality is constrained to the old/unhealthy.
In other words: if the flu kills X young/healthy people every year, I'd expect the "more lethal covid" to kill N*X young/healthy people, where N > 2 or more.
But here's another philosophical point: I don't think it's OK for the unhealthy/older people to die prematurely, just because "they'd die sooner than most anyway". Even 1-5 years of extra life is welcome.
> That is, if someone has a known risk factor, a known comorbidity, then they can (and probably should) opt to self-quarantine.
That's not always the case in the modern city life, where you need to go to work and all kind of other responsibilities (lest they be homeless/foodless soon). Without some monetary aid, mandates regarding remote work (where possible), etc, that would be a problem.
E.g. where remote work is not possible and there's not a mask mandate, a person with a known comorbidity might need to work at some retail position or similar, and face people without masks that might give them the virus.
> when the general population is in no way responsible for those individuals' compromised health conditions in the first place.
I don't like to think of society as a bunch of individuals where nobody gives a duck (sic) about the others. I'd like a more caring society, where whether one is "responsible for those individuals' compromised health conditions" or not doesn't much matter, they still need to respect them.
> That tells me that you are not from the U.S. I wanted to be sure that this was the case; that's why I read most of your comments until I was certain; if you want proof, I can show you multiple examples of where your past HN comments, in one way or another, show this to be true.
Well, it's not some big secret, I've wrote this explicitly several times in past comments. E.g.:
Let's have a private email discussion -- you can email me at:
peter.d.sherman@gmail.com
You can feel free to use an anonymous email account different from your own, to protect your identity.
I will not knowingly disclose your identity to anyone, however, you should understand that in this day and age, even gmail, which claims to be "secure" -- probably is not all that secure, so forewarned is forearmed, as they say.
That is, I can't guarantee that systems on my end (browser, computer, internet router, etc.) are secure (we see many hacks and data leaks these days, so you never really know where any given data is going to wind up), so if you'd like to talk, then please feel free to use a throwaway email account.
Next, you'll probably need to get through my spam filter.
Probably a simple message with something technology related in it (no URLs or such) would be the best way to do that.
Or, optionally, you could generate a temporary email address, and I could contact you.
Either way, I think we'd have an interesting discussion.
I'd point out that I'm not opposed to what you're saying; perhaps you can (with the correct discussion) "sell me" on various points (and perhaps conversely I can give you some additional viewpoints to consider).
You wrote: >"I'd like a more caring society,", and we definitely agree on that point!
So if you're up for it, feel free to contact me via email (keeping in mind that if you didn't get a response your email probably hit my spam filter -- maybe post a message here to this message chain to say "hey, I sent you an email with <XYZ> in the contents" (so I can search for it), and then we can continue this discussion via email!
> How does the old saying go? "Those who are willing to trade a little bit of their freedom for security -- deserve neither" ?
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." ~Benjamin Franklin
Interestingly, he was addressing the Pennsylvania legislature regarding a proposal from the Penn family: they were willing to hire mercenaries to protect the colonial frontier in exchange for a binding agreement that the legislature recognized their immunity to taxation. Franklin was arguing that was a foolish deal to take; on the Penn side, they could rescind it at any time, while if the colony just taxed the Penns, they could hire their own mercenaries.
The "liberty" he is referring to is the colonial governnent's freedom to exercise its power to levy tax and deal with existential threats to its people as it saw fit, as per its constitutional authority. In modern times, we could translate this saying to, for example, a government using tax money to pay people to stay home so they can avoid spreading a deadly disease.
>"in exchange for a binding agreement that the legislature recognized their immunity to taxation."
This must have been some time before the Civil War, when income taxes were briefly enacted (and subsequently rescinded after the war) to pay for the war, or some time before World War I, when income taxes were again enacted (oestensibly to pay for the war), and subsequently "stuck around" this second time.
Perhaps the taxation you mean was that of import tariffs, enacted oestensibly to pay for the Revolutionary War:
"Responding to an urgent need for revenue following the American Revolutionary War, the First United States Congress passed, and President George Washington signed on July 4, the Tariff of 1789, which authorized the collection of duties on imports. Four weeks later, on July 31, the fifth act of Congress established the United States Customs Service and its ports of entry."
To me (as an amateur historian, and "not a very good one" at that!), it's amazing how much you find historical taxation -- connected to War.
Incidentally, that history of commonality / "co-incidence" is shared by England/Great Britain -- and many other nations in their history as well.
I believe that in the Roman Empire this same pattern emerges (as it also might have occured with the medieval church fighting the Crusades -- the so called "Holy War", except that "taxes" were called "tithes" back then) -- but I'd have to research those incidences further...
...which occurs as consequence of, and is subordinate to, the consent of the governed -- which can be revoked by any given individual constituent, at any given time, for any given reason, or for no reason:
If you really want to understand American Government and what it was set up to protect against -- then you must truly understand all of the historical ills of every preceeding historical government of every other nation on the face of the earth into antiquity (including, but not limited to: monarchies, tyrannies, mob rule, communist movements, etc.)
The colonial government to which Mr Franklin was speaking was the government of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania as established by the power of the Crown, not a government structured around Locke's philosophy. It really is a quote that people drag out so frequently without understanding the context in which it was used. ;)
That haven't been said, I believe you're misinterpreting Locke in this context. You seem to imply that every individual can dissent without consequence. That's not what Locke said; he said the government derives its power from consent to the governed, but he was relatively mute on what happens if somebody, having consented and, further, having even consented to a system where the majority guides the government, revokes that consent. A person who puts themselves outside of the interests of the rest of society and it declares they are no longer beholden to its laws simply puts themselves at risk of being steamrolled by society, because the needs of the many are going to outweigh the needs of the few. The theory of individual and even group attempts to be apart from the effects of the will of the consenting governed has been tried again and again in American history---Thoreau, the Civil War, even Typhoid Mary in a sense---and found wanting.
The social contract is not lightly broken. If one breaks it without a plan for an alternative that can be at least as powerful as the previous arrangement, one will likely simply be consumed by that which one tried to leave behind.
and for what it's worth, if we're trying to apply lessons from the past to the modern era... While there is unrest and people are gravely concerned, justifiably so, that those in authority have broken the social contract (especially regarding how America treats black Americans), the vast majority of Americans consent to being governed. Or was there a massive tax strike that nobody mentioned?
>"The colonial government to which Mr Franklin was speaking was the government of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania as established by the power of the Crown, not a government structured around Locke's philosophy. It really is a quote that people drag out so frequently without understanding the context in which it was used. ;)"
Fair enough!
>"That haven't been said, I believe you're misinterpreting Locke in this context. You seem to imply that every individual can dissent without consequence."
There are consequences for everything in life (some good, some bad, some neutral -- depends on the individual viewpoint), that is true!
But, I did not say that, nor did I imply that by what I said, although, I suppose one set of inferences could arrive at that conclusion -- but other sets of inferences would not. Elucidate the logic by which you believe I implied it; I will in turn elucidate you if I believe that your reasoning is sound, and I agree (by implication) or not (by faulty connecting logic).
>"That's not what Locke said; he said the government derives its power from consent to the governed, but he was relatively mute on what happens if somebody, having consented and, further, having even consented to a system where the majority guides the government, revokes that consent."
Well, let's start with the fundamentals... if a single individual revokes their consent -- does government stop functioning? No it does not!
Beyond this, what we are discussing here is the nature of the social contract. Which is an absolutely fascinating subject matter! I could discuss this for days, weeks on end even! In order to understand this, we'd need to discuss what a contract is, in Law (and also the historical understanding that gives rise to the modern-day concept of contracts), what lawyers do with contracts, and what such thinkers as Thomas Hobbes have to say on the matter. So I invite you to have a private email discussion with me on the matter, if you so choose! (peter.d.sherman@gmail.com).
>"A person who puts themselves outside of the interests of the rest of society and it declares they are no longer beholden to its laws simply puts themselves at risk of being steamrolled by society, because the needs of the many are going to outweigh the needs of the few."
Look, I think you're a nice guy, I think you're very smart and well informed, and I'm sure you as a person have many virtues that if I knew you, I would be your friend, and I would praise them.
But what you have said in this part of your response is complete and utter horseshit.
Don't worry, I don't blame you for this. I blame our educational system, that in this day and age, doesn't exactly turn out Star Trek's Mr. Spock -- or Greek philosopher kings for that matter. If the education is defective, then so is the reasoning.
What you mean to say here is "People who interfere with the rights of others -- put themselves at risk of having their rights interfered with".
You can substitute "right" (which is a legal term by the way, but I use it in the context of its popular, not legal understanding) with "liberties", "freedoms", "abilities to have, do, and be" -- or whatever human ability you want.
You see, there's no "Law" in that sentence. (Fun fact: A Law, or what you are calling "Laws" -- only come into play when a) Two or more parties get entangled (aka, "have a beef" / have a disagreement with one another) and b) These two or more parties cannot work things out on their own, and thus require courts, judges and lawyers -- to do so.)
You show me anything that you think is "Law" -- and I will show you a series of Circumstances under which that so called "Law" does not or can not apply.
A Law against Murder?
You think that one's absolute?
OK, so what about U.S. Soldiers stationed in foreign cou...
A long philosophical discussion sounds fascinating, but I lack the time.
It is, also, unfortunately (most unfortunately, for I, too, enjoy the work of Locke, and Hume, and Hobbes), a bit irrelevant. Because as you've observed, nost people don't interest themselves in law, and don't read the various books, the various documents, etc., that bring it to a consistent philosophy.
The governing philosophy in America today is one of the elected over, mostly, the ignorant. Any practical approach we take to understanding how things work in reality must factor that in.
To address a few concrete points:
-) We have a country where circumstances matter and alter our interpretation of law. That's why we have courts. There is some flexibility and some mitigation (especially around punishment), though the law acts as guidelines. But under almost no circumstances does the law flex as far as "I withdrew my consent to be governed, therefore I cannot be justly coerced by this court or this government." I'm thinking of 'sovereign citizens' specifically, and they in general wind up in prison (unless they use force to make it inconvenient to apply counter-force, which is rare and risky, since one cannot guarantee the various arms of the US government will stay their hands at application of force).
-) We are a country that was founded in breaking the existing law, this is true. When I said "The social contract is not lightly broken. If one breaks it without a plan for an alternative that can be at least as powerful as the previous arrangement..." the fact that the Revolutionary War succeeded is what I meant by 'at least as powerful as.' Contrast the Civil War, where the South attempted a similar feat and failed (and Reconstruction after, where the North over-extended by attempting to enforce federal law and, arguably, also failed).
-) Freedom to dissociate
... is generous but limited. One cannot practically escape a murder charge by fleeing to the nearest mountain-top. One cannot avoid shared responsibilities like runoff abatement by declaring oneself a sovereign country within the US territory. And we have very specific carve-outs for protected classes of individuals where if we associate with anyone for a purpose (such as employer-employee relationship), we are banned from basing that association on certain qualities, such as gender or skin color.
-) Name two people in authority who have broken the social contract
Well, there was Richard Nixon, who stepped down before being impeached for using his Presidency to bug his political opponents. A judge in Pennsylvania was sentenced to a couple decades in jail for a bribery scandal (https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2011/08/11/139536686...) which led to the overturning of dozens of convictions because the process was corrupt. But the unrest right now is related to police authority and support for said authority. Depending on how you slice it, the blame spreads around here; to my mind, some blame is on police for acting as they do in the moment, and a lot is on training and policy for telling police their actions are correct (in contrast to the person-on-the-street response; video evidence has made it hard for people to viscerally turn away and assume police are "just doing their jobs" when they see how policing is done and they contrast it with other countries).
-) How does America treat black Americans? I know I am exceedingly polite towards them. Also, why do you call them "black Americans" and not "Americans"?
This is not something I will invest the time to explain to you here, but I suggest, if you are American, you seek out answers on this topic. There are open riots and civil protests on this topic right now; it's a go...
>"A long philosophical discussion sounds fascinating, but I lack the time."
That is a shame, because I honestly think we could both learn things from one another by challenging each other's viewpoints...
Look, I'll be the first to praise you, because you have challenged my viewpoints!
Now, I don't agree with everything you say -- but that's what makes for lively and interesting conversation! If we agreed completely on all points, that wouldn't be an interesting conversation, now would it?
>"It is, also, unfortunately (most unfortunately, for I, too, enjoy the work of Locke, and Hume, and Hobbes), a bit irrelevant. Because as you've observed, nost people don't interest themselves in law, and don't read the various books, the various documents, etc., that bring it to a consistent philosophy."
On this point, we agree completely!
>"The governing philosophy in America today is one of the elected over, mostly, the ignorant. Any practical approach we take to understanding how things work in reality must factor that in."
We're also completely agreed on this point; although I will add this: Government doesn't teach what a court is or how one works, i.e., it doesn't give people a "users manual" or "operator training" (no civics classes in public schools anymore), and yet, police, in their duty, when arresting people, bring people to the courts.
If there are apparent problems with the police these days, it is my own belief that the problems are not with the Police -- but rather with the lack of law/legal/process/civics education surrounding courts -- what they are, how they function, etc., etc.
(Fun side story: I remember a test in a 9th grade math class, where a buddy of mine had the audacity to write "when the hell did we learn this?" on the test, on one of the harder problems! <g>. Needless to say, the teacher was not amused! <g>)
Well, psychologically, psychologically then, what's the psychological effect -- when someone who is uneducated or undereducted -- is forced to show up at court by police arresting them?
To understand this, let's use "Jumanji" (the original Robin Williams movie) as an example.
Jumanji -- is a very strange, hostile and extremely dangerous place for those who haven't lived there; for those that don't understand its rules. Make a move to try learn something, do the wrong thing, and punishment is swift and painful!
Well, you see, you live in an America today which is split.
One the one hand, you have Lawyers, educated in Law School school, with prestigious Law School degrees -- who understand (and know how to use!) courts and the legal system! To them (because it works for them, because they know how to use it) it's a beautiful thing, a "thing of great beauty", unquestionable and inviolate.
On the other, you have people who are not educated in, nor understand any part of that system.
To them, should they get there, what seems like a thing of great beauty, unquestionable and inviolate to Lawyers and others knowledgable in Law -- seems to them like "Jumanji World".
If you wanted to understand this perspective further, you would want to read the works of Franz Kafka -- which is where we get the word "Kafkaesque" from.
But anyway, who put these people into Jumanji-world? The most obvious observable thing is that the police brought them there forcefully!
So you see, what happens psychologically then in an uneducated/undereducated in (courts/law/civics/legal processes/etc.) mind -- is that they blame the most obvious thing, they blame the police!
Now, Police are not exactly innocent in all cases -- but 99.9% of them are basically good hardworking people.
But I've outlined the underlying psychology of WHY all of the protests, etc. It's not a single instance of police misconduct that created them. The George F...
Just a quick addendum -- there's a ton more than this; what I've posted is the proverbial tip of the iceberg...
I previously posted that I would write an additional post to address all of your points, but I think that on HN, for this article, for the orginal subject posted on, it goes too much off topic.
But that being said -- I would address all of your points if you emailed me: peter.d.sherman@gmail.com
The virus evolved this way, it’s all natural selection. Silent and contagious is ideal for reproduction and survival. Covid-19’s problem for its long-term survival is that it does kill.
Evolved, because if it was engineered, they did a really shitty job of it.
1) The virus spreads to everybody, not a selected target group
2) The virus doesn't propagate that well for a virus--you have to get a pretty solid bolus directly via droplets. So, it mostly spreads by people being stupid--not wearing masks and attending large groups. Admittedly, that's a much larger group than I would have ever predicted, but I always underestimate human stupidity.
3) The virus isn't particularly fatal but also doesn't have an easy treatment. If it were engineered, you would want some easy way of treating it for your own important populace.
4) Coronavirii mutate quickly enough that you would eventually lose control of it in the wild.
If you really want to go down the conspiracy theory route, a much better theory would be that it was a virus that was being researched that escaped by an "Oops."
I don't think so. Suppose you capture an elephant. It escapes from its enclosure and causes havoc. Was the elephant designed by you to cause havoc? No. Especially, because you didn't release it on purpose.
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[ 0.71 ms ] story [ 81.8 ms ] threadPDS: Which leads to the inevitable philosophical question -- is a virus really a virus if it doesn't do anything?
And by extension, is a pandemic really a pandemic? If most people aren't suffering from the effects usually associated with pandemics?
You know, what's interesting is that up until this point in world history -- we've never called Cancer, AIDS, Heart Disease, Diabetes, Drunk Driving, World Hunger, Massive Unemployment/Job Loss, Poverty, Inequality, Racism, Alcohol Addiction, Crime, Terrorism, Social Unrest, Opioid Addiction, Illegal Immigration, Global Warming, World Wars, and the threat of (possibly immediate!) Nuclear Annihilation, or just plain Old Age -- "pandemics".
Perhaps what something is, or isn't -- is all in the languaging...
You know, there are whole industries (employing huge numbers of people!) that have sprang up around just creating problems for other people...
As in, they make money, actual money(!), and lots of it, when other people have problems...
Including (but not limited to!) News Media, Polticians, Lawyers, Medical Cartels, some factions of some Governments, and some Corporations/Big Businesses...
Prove to me that you don't have a vested interest in the outcome of anything you report -- and I'll consider what you have to say.
Otherwise, you're a shill for one complex or another, adding to the cacophony of crap (AKA fake news/false information/disinformation/lies/propaganda/fraud/misrepresentation/sophistry) out there...
https://www.amazon.com/Virus-Mind-New-Science-Meme/dp/140192...
Yes. A virus is a specific RNA/DNA structure, not the outward symptoms of an illness or ailment.
>And by extension, is a pandemic really a pandemic? If most people aren't suffering from the effects usually associated with pandemics?
Imagina a virus with similar spread, where 70% of the population are to get it (if left unsupervised, no lockdown, etc).
Now say it's even better than this one, in that 90% of them will feel nothing, 9% will have some minor/medium symptoms, but 1% will get serious life-long issues or die.
That gives 2,5 million people in the US with serious issues / death. It very qualifies as a pandemic - considering flu kills about 60-70K every year...
I'm not saying that Covid will reach those numbers (though it might). I'm saying that, never mind, 40-50%, even a virus where 90% people have no symptoms can kill tons of people...
In preparation for responding to your response, I spent a good amount of time reading many of your other comments/responses on HN.
As best I can ascertain from that reading, you are highly, highly intelligent.
That is a compliment, by the way!
Now, in preparation for my response, I believe what you should know is that what I'm going to say is not personal, it's only how I feel, only how I feel at this point in time -- and it could very well be wrong on one or more levels.
OK, with that disclaimer out of the way, here we go:
>"That gives 2,5 million people in the US with serious issues / death."
328.2 million in the US have serious issues / death or eventual death -- DUE TO OLD AGE.
That is, we are not biologically immortal.
Which brings up another philosophical issue:
If the average life expectancy for someone living in the U.S. is 78.93 years (in 2020) -- does this mean that other nations whose life expectancies are less than 78.93 years -- are guilty of killing their citizens early, because they don't follow the "best practices" of the U.S., that is, they don't do exactly what the U.S. does in its governance?
Also, would it be justified then, for those nations to control and micromanage, basically take away all of their citizens' freedoms -- in the name of increasing the average life expectancy of their citizens?
How does the old saying go? "Those who are willing to trade a little bit of their freedom for security -- deserve neither" ?
Every person who lives on God's green earth (or merely "this green earth", if that suits your religious or non-religious predilections better) has a "serious life-long issue", which is called Old Age -- and eventual (guaranteed!) death, due to that condition.
If you're going to give me a number like 2,5 million people in the US with serious issues / death, then please first understand how a statistic like that might be generated (what's the old saying, "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics"?).
Take that number, that statistic -- and please subtract all of the people who had a serious underlying health condition (Cancer, Heart Disease, Obesity, AIDS, Diabetes, or any other serious incurable disease).
Take that number -- and subtract people whose immune systems are compromised due to Old Age.
And take that number, and subtract smokers, drinkers, drug users, and people that don't exercise or eat right.
That number, once you finally refine it, through those filters, is going to be small, very small, much less than what the flu kills (again, remember that covid and flu kills via co-factors, "comorbidities" in medical parlance).
But, that exceedingly small number of people -- represents the exceedingly small number of people who didn't have a choice.
You see, the rest of the people have a choice.
That is, if someone has a known risk factor, a known comorbidity, then they can (and probably should) opt to self-quarantine.
But, not to prevent giving a disease they don't have to others -- but to prevent them from getting a disease which could be fatal to them and them only -- from others.
In other words, government orders and mandates to everyone -- invert the true social responsibility -- from those with the health conditions that require special care, those with comorbid conditions -- to the general population, when the general population is in no way responsible for those individuals' compromised health conditions in the first place.
Now with that out of the way, let's return to your comment:
>"That gives 2,5 million people in the US with serious issues / death."
OK, here's my question: Why do you care?
And here's the thing: You used a comma "," in your figure of 2,5 million.
Why is that important?
It's important because see, people here in the U.S. would have used "2.5 million" ...
Greetings. Don't know how you've got to that erroneous conclusion, but I'll go with it :-)
> 328.2 million in the US have serious issues / death or eventual death -- DUE TO OLD AGE. That is, we are not biologically immortal.
Sure. How is that relevant though? We're talking about premature deaths here due to an illness.
The fact that we're not immortal doesn't stop us looking left and right before crossing the street -- or taking all kinds of other precautions (both at the individual, and at the community/government level).
To rephrase: we might not be immortal, but few are that cavalier about dying or eager to die sooner rather than later.
> If the average life expectancy for someone living in the U.S. is 78.93 years (in 2020) -- does this mean that other nations whose life expectancies are less than 78.93 years -- are guilty of killing their citizens early, because they don't follow the "best practices" of the U.S., that is, they don't do exactly what the U.S. does in its governance?
Well, I'm sure about those being the "best", since there exist nations with higher life expectancies.
I'd also say that:
(a) it should be a kind of goal for nations to have their citizens live more and better lives. Isn't better living conditions (from business cooperation and economy, to health, social life, safety, justice, etc.) a basic motivation behind having human communities in the first place (and subsequently things like nations)? I'm pretty sure e.g. Sierra Leone (life expectancy around 54) would want to do much better...
(b) it is however not a be-all-end-all goal, other goals (including preferred way of life, freedom, etc., can always have priority).
> Also, would it be justified then, for those nations to control and micromanage, basically take away all of their citizens' freedoms -- in the name of increasing the average life expectancy of their citizens?
No.
That said, a once-in-100-years pandemic with the potential to kill millions is hardly cause for concern about "micromanaging".
And, I'd like to point out, nobody proposed to "take away all of their citizens' freedoms" (in any democratic country faced with covid), as far as I know. Not even most. Just some, and just for the period necessary to handle the crisis.
> How does the old saying go? "Those who are willing to trade a little bit of their freedom for security -- deserve neither" ?
Well, that's how an old saying goes. But for me it's not some ultimate god-given wisdom about the matters of freedom and safety, just a rough guideline.
On the other hand, those who aren't willing to trade a little bit of freedom for security, might find out they're invaded, enslaved, sick, dead, living in an anarchy (the bad kind, where the more powerful do what they please and there's chaos in the streets, not the friendly "no government" one), and so on, depending on the respective danger they wouldn't trade some freedom to handle.
In other words: freedom doesn't come for free. It requires some sacrifice, and it's bounded by conditions (including safety concerns). Plus, of course, it should not risk/hurt the freedom of others.
Of course someone could say: "I don't care for all that, I want absolute freedom". But others, assuming that person lives in a society, aren't necessarily to agree to that.
1/2
But I did give all the numbers of how it was generated. I didn't say this is a predicted toll of the current covid. What my point was, was: one should not downplay a disease because there are e.g. "50% without symptoms". And I gave a hypothetical example where even 90% without symptoms could still mean millions of deaths from those that do get symptoms (please re-read my wording in the original comment, if you will).
> That number, once you finally refine it, through those filters, is going to be small, very small, much less than what the flu kills
So, let's focus on covid now (and not my prior hypothetical example, meant to point that "percentage of symptomatic patients is not the be-all-end-all criterium).
First, I'm not sure in the covid case the number is "going to be small, very small, much less than what the flu kills".
Why would that be? We already know that covid is several times deadlier than the flu. Why would this increased morbidity only apply to people with major prior conditions and not to everybody (including them, of course)?
That is, if covid is 5x more lethal than the flu, then it kills 5x more old/unhealthy people than the flu, but also 5x more young/"no major prior problem" people than the flu.
Of course it could still have a much heavier toll on the older/unhealthy. E.g. 90% older/co-morbid people dead and 10% younger/healthier people dead (which very much could be the case). But I have not heard anything to imply that the increased leathality is constrained to the old/unhealthy.
In other words: if the flu kills X young/healthy people every year, I'd expect the "more lethal covid" to kill N*X young/healthy people, where N > 2 or more.
But here's another philosophical point: I don't think it's OK for the unhealthy/older people to die prematurely, just because "they'd die sooner than most anyway". Even 1-5 years of extra life is welcome.
> That is, if someone has a known risk factor, a known comorbidity, then they can (and probably should) opt to self-quarantine.
That's not always the case in the modern city life, where you need to go to work and all kind of other responsibilities (lest they be homeless/foodless soon). Without some monetary aid, mandates regarding remote work (where possible), etc, that would be a problem.
E.g. where remote work is not possible and there's not a mask mandate, a person with a known comorbidity might need to work at some retail position or similar, and face people without masks that might give them the virus.
> when the general population is in no way responsible for those individuals' compromised health conditions in the first place.
I don't like to think of society as a bunch of individuals where nobody gives a duck (sic) about the others. I'd like a more caring society, where whether one is "responsible for those individuals' compromised health conditions" or not doesn't much matter, they still need to respect them.
> That tells me that you are not from the U.S. I wanted to be sure that this was the case; that's why I read most of your comments until I was certain; if you want proof, I can show you multiple examples of where your past HN comments, in one way or another, show this to be true.
Well, it's not some big secret, I've wrote this explicitly several times in past comments. E.g.:
"As a European (...)" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18979477
"I'm not an American (...)" https://news.ycombinator.co...
peter.d.sherman@gmail.com
You can feel free to use an anonymous email account different from your own, to protect your identity.
I will not knowingly disclose your identity to anyone, however, you should understand that in this day and age, even gmail, which claims to be "secure" -- probably is not all that secure, so forewarned is forearmed, as they say.
That is, I can't guarantee that systems on my end (browser, computer, internet router, etc.) are secure (we see many hacks and data leaks these days, so you never really know where any given data is going to wind up), so if you'd like to talk, then please feel free to use a throwaway email account.
Next, you'll probably need to get through my spam filter.
Probably a simple message with something technology related in it (no URLs or such) would be the best way to do that.
Or, optionally, you could generate a temporary email address, and I could contact you.
Either way, I think we'd have an interesting discussion.
I'd point out that I'm not opposed to what you're saying; perhaps you can (with the correct discussion) "sell me" on various points (and perhaps conversely I can give you some additional viewpoints to consider).
You wrote: >"I'd like a more caring society,", and we definitely agree on that point!
So if you're up for it, feel free to contact me via email (keeping in mind that if you didn't get a response your email probably hit my spam filter -- maybe post a message here to this message chain to say "hey, I sent you an email with <XYZ> in the contents" (so I can search for it), and then we can continue this discussion via email!
-Peter
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." ~Benjamin Franklin
Interestingly, he was addressing the Pennsylvania legislature regarding a proposal from the Penn family: they were willing to hire mercenaries to protect the colonial frontier in exchange for a binding agreement that the legislature recognized their immunity to taxation. Franklin was arguing that was a foolish deal to take; on the Penn side, they could rescind it at any time, while if the colony just taxed the Penns, they could hire their own mercenaries.
The "liberty" he is referring to is the colonial governnent's freedom to exercise its power to levy tax and deal with existential threats to its people as it saw fit, as per its constitutional authority. In modern times, we could translate this saying to, for example, a government using tax money to pay people to stay home so they can avoid spreading a deadly disease.
This must have been some time before the Civil War, when income taxes were briefly enacted (and subsequently rescinded after the war) to pay for the war, or some time before World War I, when income taxes were again enacted (oestensibly to pay for the war), and subsequently "stuck around" this second time.
Perhaps the taxation you mean was that of import tariffs, enacted oestensibly to pay for the Revolutionary War:
"Responding to an urgent need for revenue following the American Revolutionary War, the First United States Congress passed, and President George Washington signed on July 4, the Tariff of 1789, which authorized the collection of duties on imports. Four weeks later, on July 31, the fifth act of Congress established the United States Customs Service and its ports of entry."
(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Customs_and_Border_Protec...)
To me (as an amateur historian, and "not a very good one" at that!), it's amazing how much you find historical taxation -- connected to War.
Incidentally, that history of commonality / "co-incidence" is shared by England/Great Britain -- and many other nations in their history as well.
I believe that in the Roman Empire this same pattern emerges (as it also might have occured with the medieval church fighting the Crusades -- the so called "Holy War", except that "taxes" were called "tithes" back then) -- but I'd have to research those incidences further...
Also, you might find the following interesting:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Horsemen_of_the_Apocalyps...
>"as per its constitutional authority..."
...which occurs as consequence of, and is subordinate to, the consent of the governed -- which can be revoked by any given individual constituent, at any given time, for any given reason, or for no reason:
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/7370/7370-h/7370-h.htm
If you really want to understand American Government and what it was set up to protect against -- then you must truly understand all of the historical ills of every preceeding historical government of every other nation on the face of the earth into antiquity (including, but not limited to: monarchies, tyrannies, mob rule, communist movements, etc.)
Say it with me: CONSENT. OF. THE. GOVERNED.
That haven't been said, I believe you're misinterpreting Locke in this context. You seem to imply that every individual can dissent without consequence. That's not what Locke said; he said the government derives its power from consent to the governed, but he was relatively mute on what happens if somebody, having consented and, further, having even consented to a system where the majority guides the government, revokes that consent. A person who puts themselves outside of the interests of the rest of society and it declares they are no longer beholden to its laws simply puts themselves at risk of being steamrolled by society, because the needs of the many are going to outweigh the needs of the few. The theory of individual and even group attempts to be apart from the effects of the will of the consenting governed has been tried again and again in American history---Thoreau, the Civil War, even Typhoid Mary in a sense---and found wanting.
The social contract is not lightly broken. If one breaks it without a plan for an alternative that can be at least as powerful as the previous arrangement, one will likely simply be consumed by that which one tried to leave behind.
and for what it's worth, if we're trying to apply lessons from the past to the modern era... While there is unrest and people are gravely concerned, justifiably so, that those in authority have broken the social contract (especially regarding how America treats black Americans), the vast majority of Americans consent to being governed. Or was there a massive tax strike that nobody mentioned?
Fair enough!
>"That haven't been said, I believe you're misinterpreting Locke in this context. You seem to imply that every individual can dissent without consequence."
There are consequences for everything in life (some good, some bad, some neutral -- depends on the individual viewpoint), that is true!
But, I did not say that, nor did I imply that by what I said, although, I suppose one set of inferences could arrive at that conclusion -- but other sets of inferences would not. Elucidate the logic by which you believe I implied it; I will in turn elucidate you if I believe that your reasoning is sound, and I agree (by implication) or not (by faulty connecting logic).
>"That's not what Locke said; he said the government derives its power from consent to the governed, but he was relatively mute on what happens if somebody, having consented and, further, having even consented to a system where the majority guides the government, revokes that consent."
Well, let's start with the fundamentals... if a single individual revokes their consent -- does government stop functioning? No it does not!
Beyond this, what we are discussing here is the nature of the social contract. Which is an absolutely fascinating subject matter! I could discuss this for days, weeks on end even! In order to understand this, we'd need to discuss what a contract is, in Law (and also the historical understanding that gives rise to the modern-day concept of contracts), what lawyers do with contracts, and what such thinkers as Thomas Hobbes have to say on the matter. So I invite you to have a private email discussion with me on the matter, if you so choose! (peter.d.sherman@gmail.com).
>"A person who puts themselves outside of the interests of the rest of society and it declares they are no longer beholden to its laws simply puts themselves at risk of being steamrolled by society, because the needs of the many are going to outweigh the needs of the few."
Look, I think you're a nice guy, I think you're very smart and well informed, and I'm sure you as a person have many virtues that if I knew you, I would be your friend, and I would praise them.
But what you have said in this part of your response is complete and utter horseshit.
Don't worry, I don't blame you for this. I blame our educational system, that in this day and age, doesn't exactly turn out Star Trek's Mr. Spock -- or Greek philosopher kings for that matter. If the education is defective, then so is the reasoning.
What you mean to say here is "People who interfere with the rights of others -- put themselves at risk of having their rights interfered with".
You can substitute "right" (which is a legal term by the way, but I use it in the context of its popular, not legal understanding) with "liberties", "freedoms", "abilities to have, do, and be" -- or whatever human ability you want.
You see, there's no "Law" in that sentence. (Fun fact: A Law, or what you are calling "Laws" -- only come into play when a) Two or more parties get entangled (aka, "have a beef" / have a disagreement with one another) and b) These two or more parties cannot work things out on their own, and thus require courts, judges and lawyers -- to do so.)
You show me anything that you think is "Law" -- and I will show you a series of Circumstances under which that so called "Law" does not or can not apply.
A Law against Murder?
You think that one's absolute?
OK, so what about U.S. Soldiers stationed in foreign cou...
It is, also, unfortunately (most unfortunately, for I, too, enjoy the work of Locke, and Hume, and Hobbes), a bit irrelevant. Because as you've observed, nost people don't interest themselves in law, and don't read the various books, the various documents, etc., that bring it to a consistent philosophy.
The governing philosophy in America today is one of the elected over, mostly, the ignorant. Any practical approach we take to understanding how things work in reality must factor that in.
To address a few concrete points:
-) We have a country where circumstances matter and alter our interpretation of law. That's why we have courts. There is some flexibility and some mitigation (especially around punishment), though the law acts as guidelines. But under almost no circumstances does the law flex as far as "I withdrew my consent to be governed, therefore I cannot be justly coerced by this court or this government." I'm thinking of 'sovereign citizens' specifically, and they in general wind up in prison (unless they use force to make it inconvenient to apply counter-force, which is rare and risky, since one cannot guarantee the various arms of the US government will stay their hands at application of force).
-) We are a country that was founded in breaking the existing law, this is true. When I said "The social contract is not lightly broken. If one breaks it without a plan for an alternative that can be at least as powerful as the previous arrangement..." the fact that the Revolutionary War succeeded is what I meant by 'at least as powerful as.' Contrast the Civil War, where the South attempted a similar feat and failed (and Reconstruction after, where the North over-extended by attempting to enforce federal law and, arguably, also failed).
-) Freedom to dissociate
... is generous but limited. One cannot practically escape a murder charge by fleeing to the nearest mountain-top. One cannot avoid shared responsibilities like runoff abatement by declaring oneself a sovereign country within the US territory. And we have very specific carve-outs for protected classes of individuals where if we associate with anyone for a purpose (such as employer-employee relationship), we are banned from basing that association on certain qualities, such as gender or skin color.
-) Name two people in authority who have broken the social contract
Well, there was Richard Nixon, who stepped down before being impeached for using his Presidency to bug his political opponents. A judge in Pennsylvania was sentenced to a couple decades in jail for a bribery scandal (https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2011/08/11/139536686...) which led to the overturning of dozens of convictions because the process was corrupt. But the unrest right now is related to police authority and support for said authority. Depending on how you slice it, the blame spreads around here; to my mind, some blame is on police for acting as they do in the moment, and a lot is on training and policy for telling police their actions are correct (in contrast to the person-on-the-street response; video evidence has made it hard for people to viscerally turn away and assume police are "just doing their jobs" when they see how policing is done and they contrast it with other countries).
-) How does America treat black Americans? I know I am exceedingly polite towards them. Also, why do you call them "black Americans" and not "Americans"?
This is not something I will invest the time to explain to you here, but I suggest, if you are American, you seek out answers on this topic. There are open riots and civil protests on this topic right now; it's a go...
That is a shame, because I honestly think we could both learn things from one another by challenging each other's viewpoints...
Look, I'll be the first to praise you, because you have challenged my viewpoints!
Now, I don't agree with everything you say -- but that's what makes for lively and interesting conversation! If we agreed completely on all points, that wouldn't be an interesting conversation, now would it?
>"It is, also, unfortunately (most unfortunately, for I, too, enjoy the work of Locke, and Hume, and Hobbes), a bit irrelevant. Because as you've observed, nost people don't interest themselves in law, and don't read the various books, the various documents, etc., that bring it to a consistent philosophy."
On this point, we agree completely!
>"The governing philosophy in America today is one of the elected over, mostly, the ignorant. Any practical approach we take to understanding how things work in reality must factor that in."
We're also completely agreed on this point; although I will add this: Government doesn't teach what a court is or how one works, i.e., it doesn't give people a "users manual" or "operator training" (no civics classes in public schools anymore), and yet, police, in their duty, when arresting people, bring people to the courts.
If there are apparent problems with the police these days, it is my own belief that the problems are not with the Police -- but rather with the lack of law/legal/process/civics education surrounding courts -- what they are, how they function, etc., etc.
(Fun side story: I remember a test in a 9th grade math class, where a buddy of mine had the audacity to write "when the hell did we learn this?" on the test, on one of the harder problems! <g>. Needless to say, the teacher was not amused! <g>)
Well, psychologically, psychologically then, what's the psychological effect -- when someone who is uneducated or undereducted -- is forced to show up at court by police arresting them?
To understand this, let's use "Jumanji" (the original Robin Williams movie) as an example.
Jumanji -- is a very strange, hostile and extremely dangerous place for those who haven't lived there; for those that don't understand its rules. Make a move to try learn something, do the wrong thing, and punishment is swift and painful!
Well, you see, you live in an America today which is split.
One the one hand, you have Lawyers, educated in Law School school, with prestigious Law School degrees -- who understand (and know how to use!) courts and the legal system! To them (because it works for them, because they know how to use it) it's a beautiful thing, a "thing of great beauty", unquestionable and inviolate.
On the other, you have people who are not educated in, nor understand any part of that system.
To them, should they get there, what seems like a thing of great beauty, unquestionable and inviolate to Lawyers and others knowledgable in Law -- seems to them like "Jumanji World".
If you wanted to understand this perspective further, you would want to read the works of Franz Kafka -- which is where we get the word "Kafkaesque" from.
But anyway, who put these people into Jumanji-world? The most obvious observable thing is that the police brought them there forcefully!
So you see, what happens psychologically then in an uneducated/undereducated in (courts/law/civics/legal processes/etc.) mind -- is that they blame the most obvious thing, they blame the police!
Now, Police are not exactly innocent in all cases -- but 99.9% of them are basically good hardworking people.
But I've outlined the underlying psychology of WHY all of the protests, etc. It's not a single instance of police misconduct that created them. The George F...
I previously posted that I would write an additional post to address all of your points, but I think that on HN, for this article, for the orginal subject posted on, it goes too much off topic.
But that being said -- I would address all of your points if you emailed me: peter.d.sherman@gmail.com
1) The virus spreads to everybody, not a selected target group
2) The virus doesn't propagate that well for a virus--you have to get a pretty solid bolus directly via droplets. So, it mostly spreads by people being stupid--not wearing masks and attending large groups. Admittedly, that's a much larger group than I would have ever predicted, but I always underestimate human stupidity.
3) The virus isn't particularly fatal but also doesn't have an easy treatment. If it were engineered, you would want some easy way of treating it for your own important populace.
4) Coronavirii mutate quickly enough that you would eventually lose control of it in the wild.
If you really want to go down the conspiracy theory route, a much better theory would be that it was a virus that was being researched that escaped by an "Oops."
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-la...
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lab-manmade-myth...
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