Dissolving the Fermi Paradox (2018) (arxiv.org)

My summary: the Drake equation takes a bunch of scenarios and multiplies their expected values/average probabilities. But this is a bad way to combine distributions that are not normally distributed (and may look more like bathtub curves)! It turns out, if you combine these potential scenario probability distributions in a smart way, an improved "Drake" equation predicts a much stronger likelihood that we'd see no life anywhere.

So there's no Fermi paradox, no Great Filter, no nothing. It's reasonable we're alone.