I didn't read the paywalled article, but if there were expected to be 40.5 four-match sequences, and 48 were observed, that doesn't seem to be a problem.
A Poisson distribution (i.e., rare events limit) should approximately apply here. For a Poisson with a rate of 40.5, the standard deviation would be sqrt(40.5) ~ 6.4, so 48 counts is just over 1 standard deviation high (1.18 to be exact). Not a problem.
Especially if we were measuring k-matches, for k=2, 3, 4, and looking for an exceptional value in any of the above.
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[ 2.7 ms ] story [ 14.5 ms ] threadA Poisson distribution (i.e., rare events limit) should approximately apply here. For a Poisson with a rate of 40.5, the standard deviation would be sqrt(40.5) ~ 6.4, so 48 counts is just over 1 standard deviation high (1.18 to be exact). Not a problem.
Especially if we were measuring k-matches, for k=2, 3, 4, and looking for an exceptional value in any of the above.
How HN
The article wasn’t paywalled for me by the way. I had to dismiss something but was able to read it no problem then