I think about this video all the time. This is the future of warfare, and it's coming. Like it or not, this is where the world is going to go.
Recently, I listened to a podcast about the second civil war in America (It Could Happen Here), and it was chilling. It showed the warfare is asymmetric now, and a 2B bomber is useless against a motivated attacker with 20k worth of drones. The future of warfare is through 3D printing and ML tech; and, the future is here.
See, what I find interesting is that even before it was a reality (in the public sphere), this was one of the main justificatons being used in the smoke filled backrooms for the turning on of the total surveillance system. The end of the nation state threat actor and the beginning of single-actors being able to do just as much damage if they wanted. Hence, they want to track everything and everyone in the hopes that at a minimum they can "walk the cat back", but things are headed for predictive analytics which have all kinds of dangers/downsides.
I don't agree with it, but understanding that is the position many of the machiavellian natsec experts are coming from really helps in having more productive conversations.
Ha, I'm just back from a walk down the street where a thought popped into mind, upon seeing a group of people, how 'easy' it would be to drop a load of simple flechettes from a drone and cause havoc all for an impressively low amount of money. No complicated to make/source explosives or poisons or chemicals - just a quadcopter and some bits of metal.
Ever since I saw it in some old GTA game, I keep wondering why bombs strapped to small RC cars aren't used much more often by gangs and terrorists. I'm still not sure why, but I think for the same reasons the attack you just described hasn't happened yet, despite it being easy to do.
And lifting power. You'd need quite a lot of it if you'd want to deploy this to a larger group of people. For this reason I think it's not allowed to fly larger/heavier drones without a permit.
Sure, but who would procure a permit for a one-time use terrorist device built from off the shelf parts?
Also, you only care about getting the thing into position and then dropping its payload - it doesn't much matter what happens to it after, so your energy requirements don't need to require landing. Heck, the drone itself could be considered a secondary payload.
It's worth looking at video evidence of drone usage examples from the recent conflicts.
We've seen small drones dropping mortar rounds in trenches simply by flying above the correct spot near the entrance to a bunker and releasing it. We've seen ammo dumps being ignited by drones carrying thermite loads. We've seen long-range drone attacks on oil processing facilities, getting through expensive anti-air defences simply by sacrificing many cheap drones. Etc.
The currently ongoing Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict in Arcah/Nagorno-Karabah (in some aspects, a proxy "test" of Turkish tech vs Russian tech) is worth looking at, since drones/UAVs are a key part of military activity there.
In the short terms, EW and CIWS, which can be countered by “Wild Weasel” drones and overwhelming CIWS systems with cheap decoys. Now that low-tier states are fighting it out with autonomous systems purchased from mid-tier states in conditions significantly different from how (e.g.) the US has been using them, expect to see a brutally Darwinian evolution of TTPs in the field.
EW: Electronic Warfare; any action involving the use of the electromagnetic spectrum (EM spectrum) or directed energy to control the spectrum, attack an enemy, or impede enemy assaults
CIWS: Close-in Weapon System; a point-defense weapon system for detecting and destroying short-range incoming missiles and enemy aircraft which have penetrated the outer defenses, typically mounted shipboard in a naval capacity. A gun-based CIWS usually consists of a combination of radars, computers and rotary or revolver cannon placed on a rotating, automatically aimed gun mount.
Wild Weasel: an aircraft, of any type, equipped with anti-radiation missiles and tasked with the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses. In brief, the task of a Wild Weasel aircraft is to bait enemy anti-aircraft defenses into targeting it with their radars, whereupon the radar waves are traced back to their source, allowing the Weasel or its teammates to precisely target it for destruction.
TTP: Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures; The role of TTPs in terrorism analysis is to identify individual patterns of behavior of a particular terrorist activity, or a particular terrorist organisation, and to examine and categorize more general tactics and weapons used by a particular terrorist activity, or a particular terrorist organisation.
I could have been less-acronym heavy! :) (The only correction is that TTPs can refer to tactical doctrine in general, which is the spirit I used it in.)
To be a little more specific, what we’re seeing in Nagorno-Karabakh seems to be focused on using drones to disrupt sustainment and movement by attacking convoys, so a lot of doctrinal innovation is likely to be based on how to protect against drones while on the move, which will, of course, trigger further counter-counter-drone innovations.
I believe that the recent conflicts are good examples that EW doesn't work. Perhaps USA has EW that would work, but Russia is (was?) generally considered to have effective EW, and we are seeing EW systems themselves getting directly taken out by drones.
I think that we don't have effective countermeasures now; you just have to expect and tolerate drone strikes just as you have to expect and tolerate artillery strikes.
CIWS systems are rare, bulky and expensive - you can use them to protect certain high-value targets (e.g. ships) but they don't scale to protect infantry emplacements, moving vehicles or the perimeter of large bases.
Anti-air missiles work against the larger (and more dangerous) UAVs, however, the problem is that if you have to shoot down cheap drones with the current very expensive missiles, then you still lose on a cost/efficiency basis.
The role of aviation a couple decades ago involved a limited amount of very effective but very expensive aircraft - and we have effective but expensive countermeasures. The current situation involves lots of cheap aircraft hitting expensive targets (e.g. tanks and various vehicle-based weapon systems). So we need either to have lots of cheap countermeasures, or accept the drone reality which means that high-value targets don't survive, so instead of a single great but expensive tank you'd need perhaps four quadbikes with rocket launchers, or a dozen small unmanned tracked vehicles.
10k worth of drones? That pays for like one and a half Warmates [0]? Drones are far more expensive than you think.
Also there are unmanned autonomous ground vehicles that can launch these like the mission master[1].
It's merely a force multiplier for soldiers. Not some indiscriminate killing machine. Imagine a slaugherbots video based on conventional fighter jets or bombers. They would show them used indiscriminately too. The video is mostly FUD. Any military that gives AI the authority to designate targets is no longer in control of their weapons so it would never happen.
Recent news was China building a 48x drone suicide swarm launcher[1], yikes. Meanwhile robotic wingmen seem to be increasingly talked up everywhere, everyone wants em.
The elite have already accomplished this. They've convinced you guns in the hands of civilians are a menace and danger to society and that the police you thought were there to protect you are really hunting you. You are a victim, you are powerless comply or be killed by your fellow citizens.
AI has also been used in defense for at least a decade now...
Why wait for AI powered mini killer drones when you could conjure up a relatively large group of religious extremists, a bag of knives from a kitchen supply store and a vague description of Western White Infidel TM?
This is a fictional, theoretical depiction of what a drone based attack could look like, followed by a short statement by a professor.
My thoughts:
+ This did a poor job differentiating between AI and just drone warfare. You don't need an AI to launch a bunch of drones with payloads. My local middleschool can fly a bunch of drones, and they do it monthly in a nearby parking lot.
+ Neither the video nor the website dictates what, exactly the ban is of. "Lethal Autonomous Weapons", sure, but are we banning like drone motors or FPV cameras or what? How do we not ban "Drone carrying a camera" but do ban "drone carrying homemade explosive" in a way that's meaningful beyond making it extra-illegal to do a terrorism?
+ The website mostly seems concerned about human-in-the-killchain systems versus automated systems. That's a fair distinction to be concerned about, but doesn't appear to be related to the theoretical attack they show.
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[ 2.2 ms ] story [ 65.3 ms ] threadBut no Sharks with Lasers...well he missed a opportunity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_bomb
I think about this video all the time. This is the future of warfare, and it's coming. Like it or not, this is where the world is going to go.
Recently, I listened to a podcast about the second civil war in America (It Could Happen Here), and it was chilling. It showed the warfare is asymmetric now, and a 2B bomber is useless against a motivated attacker with 20k worth of drones. The future of warfare is through 3D printing and ML tech; and, the future is here.
I don't agree with it, but understanding that is the position many of the machiavellian natsec experts are coming from really helps in having more productive conversations.
I have a lot of such happy thoughts.
Also, you only care about getting the thing into position and then dropping its payload - it doesn't much matter what happens to it after, so your energy requirements don't need to require landing. Heck, the drone itself could be considered a secondary payload.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lazy_Dog_(bomb)
It's incredibly old 'tech'.
- ed - oops! I see that's right there in your link.
It's worth looking at video evidence of drone usage examples from the recent conflicts.
We've seen small drones dropping mortar rounds in trenches simply by flying above the correct spot near the entrance to a bunker and releasing it. We've seen ammo dumps being ignited by drones carrying thermite loads. We've seen long-range drone attacks on oil processing facilities, getting through expensive anti-air defences simply by sacrificing many cheap drones. Etc.
The currently ongoing Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict in Arcah/Nagorno-Karabah (in some aspects, a proxy "test" of Turkish tech vs Russian tech) is worth looking at, since drones/UAVs are a key part of military activity there.
EW: Electronic Warfare; any action involving the use of the electromagnetic spectrum (EM spectrum) or directed energy to control the spectrum, attack an enemy, or impede enemy assaults
CIWS: Close-in Weapon System; a point-defense weapon system for detecting and destroying short-range incoming missiles and enemy aircraft which have penetrated the outer defenses, typically mounted shipboard in a naval capacity. A gun-based CIWS usually consists of a combination of radars, computers and rotary or revolver cannon placed on a rotating, automatically aimed gun mount.
Wild Weasel: an aircraft, of any type, equipped with anti-radiation missiles and tasked with the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses. In brief, the task of a Wild Weasel aircraft is to bait enemy anti-aircraft defenses into targeting it with their radars, whereupon the radar waves are traced back to their source, allowing the Weasel or its teammates to precisely target it for destruction.
TTP: Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures; The role of TTPs in terrorism analysis is to identify individual patterns of behavior of a particular terrorist activity, or a particular terrorist organisation, and to examine and categorize more general tactics and weapons used by a particular terrorist activity, or a particular terrorist organisation.
To be a little more specific, what we’re seeing in Nagorno-Karabakh seems to be focused on using drones to disrupt sustainment and movement by attacking convoys, so a lot of doctrinal innovation is likely to be based on how to protect against drones while on the move, which will, of course, trigger further counter-counter-drone innovations.
I think that we don't have effective countermeasures now; you just have to expect and tolerate drone strikes just as you have to expect and tolerate artillery strikes.
CIWS systems are rare, bulky and expensive - you can use them to protect certain high-value targets (e.g. ships) but they don't scale to protect infantry emplacements, moving vehicles or the perimeter of large bases.
Anti-air missiles work against the larger (and more dangerous) UAVs, however, the problem is that if you have to shoot down cheap drones with the current very expensive missiles, then you still lose on a cost/efficiency basis.
The role of aviation a couple decades ago involved a limited amount of very effective but very expensive aircraft - and we have effective but expensive countermeasures. The current situation involves lots of cheap aircraft hitting expensive targets (e.g. tanks and various vehicle-based weapon systems). So we need either to have lots of cheap countermeasures, or accept the drone reality which means that high-value targets don't survive, so instead of a single great but expensive tank you'd need perhaps four quadbikes with rocket launchers, or a dozen small unmanned tracked vehicles.
Eagles.
Also there are unmanned autonomous ground vehicles that can launch these like the mission master[1].
It's merely a force multiplier for soldiers. Not some indiscriminate killing machine. Imagine a slaugherbots video based on conventional fighter jets or bombers. They would show them used indiscriminately too. The video is mostly FUD. Any military that gives AI the authority to designate targets is no longer in control of their weapons so it would never happen.
[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzzOH5fBAqw [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_O85m6VXn8
Recent news was China building a 48x drone suicide swarm launcher[1], yikes. Meanwhile robotic wingmen seem to be increasingly talked up everywhere, everyone wants em.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/10/14/china-...
AI has also been used in defense for at least a decade now...
This is a fictional, theoretical depiction of what a drone based attack could look like, followed by a short statement by a professor.
My thoughts:
+ This did a poor job differentiating between AI and just drone warfare. You don't need an AI to launch a bunch of drones with payloads. My local middleschool can fly a bunch of drones, and they do it monthly in a nearby parking lot.
+ Neither the video nor the website dictates what, exactly the ban is of. "Lethal Autonomous Weapons", sure, but are we banning like drone motors or FPV cameras or what? How do we not ban "Drone carrying a camera" but do ban "drone carrying homemade explosive" in a way that's meaningful beyond making it extra-illegal to do a terrorism?
+ The website mostly seems concerned about human-in-the-killchain systems versus automated systems. That's a fair distinction to be concerned about, but doesn't appear to be related to the theoretical attack they show.