Some of the commentary on HN has been about how polls are especially bad now because of the types of people who actually respond to them. But the article shows that presidential polls have been historically "bad".
"[N]ational polls will miss by about 3 percentage points in an average year ... That means the margin of error is closer to 7 or 8 points. And every presidential election so far this century has fallen within that range."
I think people just have unrealistic expectations of how accurate polls can be.
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[ 3.3 ms ] story [ 31.8 ms ] thread"[N]ational polls will miss by about 3 percentage points in an average year ... That means the margin of error is closer to 7 or 8 points. And every presidential election so far this century has fallen within that range."
I think people just have unrealistic expectations of how accurate polls can be.