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Original paper: http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html

"This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. A number of other consequences of this result are also discussed."

Also a very cool short story about this idea: http://qntm.org/responsibility

This article was very painful to read.

> "It actually explains a few of the trickier things about quantum physics, like why particles have an indeterminate position until they're observed."

And then it goes on in the next paragraph, of all things, to assert that most of the people are "computer controlled".

The whole thing has the general attitude of ... ooh, we're living in a SIMULATION, let's make some random assumptions that sound audacious. We don't have to care if they hold up for more than a microsecond under scrutiny, because it's a simulation!

And while that's an exaggeration, the word simulation does provide an easy excuse, a semantic stop sign as it were, to avoid thinking about the implications of your idea beyond "hmm, that would be cool."

Fortunately, that's not how it works. Also, as to the whole "simulating only what's needed" is in the category of easier said than done. QM might be locally computable at each step, but you can't factor out a part of the universe without affecting its state. And don't even get me started on the problems you'll have if you try to cut out things all the way up at the human level.

One of the best works of fiction to tackle this subject was by Japanese writer Koji Suzuki. If the name's unfamiliar, read no further - MAJOR SPOILERS ahead!

The final book in the 'Ring' series (yes, that 'Ring' - the one with the creepy TV-crawling telekinetic dead girl) was a fascinating, philosophical, true 'science fiction' novel about the plight of AIs trapped in a simulation that was going horribly wrong... Well worth reading!

What struck me is that 'information' is a property/quality(?) that could cross the barrier between 'real' and 'simulation' - a sufficiently complex simulated being could theoretically make the leap into 'real' existence.

But there's always the other problem of turtles - all the way down (or up)... ;-) ('The Thirteenth Floor')