Game theory. Even the basic Prisoner's Dilemma calls for it. If a nation cannot field a credible threat then defection is the dominant strategy for underdogs. Lately that does not mean Economic underdogs but rather ideological under dogs.
We've had peace between large countries for 75 years because there was one superpower, the US.
However:
- world population today is 4x that of 1945, so there is growing competition for resources
- China is in the process of damming and diverting the Himalayan headwaters, which will result in war with many of its neighbors, including India and Pakistan. All three of those countries are nuclear powers.
- China has built the world's largest navy in terms of number of ships, surpassing the US. Historically this has meant preparation for war. (See Japan and Germany pre-WW2.)
- European cities have had low-intensity incidents with Islam, but with more than 10% of populations being Muslim in some areas, there will be a call for Shariah (political Islam.) That means civil war. The only reason that's been delayed is the huge amount of welfare being paid to their families (regarded as jizyah by migrants), which is being used to rapidly increase their population.
- regarding the post article, the US doesn't prepare for urban war because it doesn't want to engage in that. You end up with huge casualties and a destroyed city. I guess we'll see how that fantasy works out for the US military.
Whatever _you_ think of others doesn't change them into friends or neutrals [1].
It's what they think of you that matters.
(And "you" here can mean you personally or your business, your country, etc., any level where one can have enemies at).
[1] Except through some long process of changing their hearts, and so on, and even there it's usually not a matter of hearts - e.g. irrational hatred - but of interests - e.g. they win something material from going after you.
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[ 2.5 ms ] story [ 29.2 ms ] threadWe've had peace between large countries for 75 years because there was one superpower, the US.
However:
- world population today is 4x that of 1945, so there is growing competition for resources
- China is in the process of damming and diverting the Himalayan headwaters, which will result in war with many of its neighbors, including India and Pakistan. All three of those countries are nuclear powers.
- China has built the world's largest navy in terms of number of ships, surpassing the US. Historically this has meant preparation for war. (See Japan and Germany pre-WW2.)
- European cities have had low-intensity incidents with Islam, but with more than 10% of populations being Muslim in some areas, there will be a call for Shariah (political Islam.) That means civil war. The only reason that's been delayed is the huge amount of welfare being paid to their families (regarded as jizyah by migrants), which is being used to rapidly increase their population.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/jizya
- regarding the post article, the US doesn't prepare for urban war because it doesn't want to engage in that. You end up with huge casualties and a destroyed city. I guess we'll see how that fantasy works out for the US military.
It's what they think of you that matters.
(And "you" here can mean you personally or your business, your country, etc., any level where one can have enemies at).
[1] Except through some long process of changing their hearts, and so on, and even there it's usually not a matter of hearts - e.g. irrational hatred - but of interests - e.g. they win something material from going after you.