I think I have you covered by stating, that you have to believe in statistics like mean reversion for financials in order to sell. If you don't believe that, okay, that's fine too.
That isn't statistics, it's nonsense. Returns do not follow a Gaussian distribution, therefore do not exhibit mean reversion behavior. This is true in the price of any widely-traded financial instrument. You can't just say patently untrue things about the world and call it "statistics".
> Professors Andrew W. Lo and Archie Craig MacKinlay, professors of Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management and the University of Pennsylvania, respectively, have also presented evidence that they believe shows the random walk hypothesis to be wrong. Their book A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, presents a number of tests and studies that reportedly support the view that there are trends in the stock market and that the stock market is somewhat predictable.
It's an open question/debate in academia whether the random walk hypothesis is true or false.
Exactly, this is likely a logical fallacy.
In particular, how can your expectation of the future value minus the current value depend on your buy-in price? That's a property a prediction should not have.
I wasn't optimizing for value. I was optimizing for contentment.
If you are worrying about the value of an asset at a particular moment, and even mildly thinking of selling it, spare yourself the worrying. If you bought in at a high price, and you are going to sell it now, it will still be a small profit. If you bought in at a low price before, you can likely afford to wait. Even if the value goes down, you will still have made a profit. But thinking this way gets the worrying part of taking such a speculative decision out of the way.
Well, you can exchange USD with oil, goods, services everywhere.
P2P payments can be successfully done in USD for few cents (eg. Venmo, Paypal etc..).
Anonymity is not a point because all transaction are public in the blockchain.I could pay in Monero to my fellow drug dealer but it's difficult to exchange it for a Ferrari without going through KYC.
There are a few websites accepting it. It looks to me that "paying with bitcoin" is the minor use case.
It's seems just a tradable stock that goes wildly up and down because it's impossible to find a reasonable fair value. The whole industry is based on trading, but the underlying asset is mostly useless. No dividends. No places to spend it. No low-volatility. No inflation-adjusted.
I do think the real circulating supply is lower (Lost wallet, Seized wallets) therefore the real market cap is lower. About valuation, you cannot compare a company which gives investors dividends/buyback vs a currency only used for holding and trading.
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[ 2.6 ms ] story [ 70.0 ms ] threadLook, you can't just limit our options like this.
The pandemic is probably a major cause of its rise so you might gamble that there is still some scope for increase, or just cash in now.
> Professors Andrew W. Lo and Archie Craig MacKinlay, professors of Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management and the University of Pennsylvania, respectively, have also presented evidence that they believe shows the random walk hypothesis to be wrong. Their book A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, presents a number of tests and studies that reportedly support the view that there are trends in the stock market and that the stock market is somewhat predictable.
It's an open question/debate in academia whether the random walk hypothesis is true or false.
If you are worrying about the value of an asset at a particular moment, and even mildly thinking of selling it, spare yourself the worrying. If you bought in at a high price, and you are going to sell it now, it will still be a small profit. If you bought in at a low price before, you can likely afford to wait. Even if the value goes down, you will still have made a profit. But thinking this way gets the worrying part of taking such a speculative decision out of the way.
Besides hoping that other people also want to have a one dollar bill and raise the price
It's seems just a tradable stock that goes wildly up and down because it's impossible to find a reasonable fair value. The whole industry is based on trading, but the underlying asset is mostly useless. No dividends. No places to spend it. No low-volatility. No inflation-adjusted.
Bitcoin has a market cap of ~472 billion dollars. The amount of dollars in circulation is on the magnitude of hundreds of trillions.
Therefore, it's still way too undervalued.
https://howmuch.net/articles/worlds-money-in-perspective-201...
(Note: "Very old chart", but the idea is the same)
Homer: Aw, twenty dollars? I wanted a peanut!
Homer's Brain: Twenty dollars can buy many peanuts.
Homer: Explain how!
Homer's Brain: Money can be exchanged for goods and services.