Which Covid policies are most effective? A Bayesian analysis (journals.plos.org)

> Conclusion The analysis generates several important insights. First, important differences arise across jurisdictions in infection levels, death rates, policy implementation, and compliance with policies. These differences have major implications for COVID control. The portfolio of the eleven types of policies–implemented with different levels of intensity–necessary to drive COVID growth rate below zero depends on the jurisdiction’s COVID burden and compliance, which reflects behavioral and demographic characteristics of the jurisdictions. Second, we estimate that a core set of socially tolerable policies lead to COVID control only in those jurisdictions that have unusually high levels of compliance. The socially tolerable core policies alone are meaningful and significant, but insufficient by themselves for preventing escalating growth in infections in 90% of the jurisdictions analyzed. For these jurisdictions, one or more from a set of additional high-impact but difficult-to-tolerate policies must be implemented to achieve COVID control. Third, the impact of testing and contact tracing has been lower than the impact of other policies. Fourth, for the jurisdictions covered in this analysis, the policies with the greatest marginal impact for achieving COVID control mainly involve restrictions on adults through workplace closings and stay-at-home requirements, although targeted school closings are also in the group of additional high-impact policies. Altogether, the analysis indicates that, in all but a few highly compliant jurisdictions, relatively significant social costs must be incurred to reduce COVID growth below zero. The model points to significant opportunities for cultivating deeper understanding of the drivers of compliance and of variation in the impact of policies, which are potentially rewarding topics for future research.

What I don't see is any analysis on the impact of the "high social cost" policies on public health and well being. Why is this so often not included? For example, what are the impacts of school closures on childhood development and isolation on mental health? Are we going to be paying more for this down the line?

Title is "Which COVID policies are most effective?" but they study only America and Western Europe, thus leaving out all the countries in Asia that had the most effective policies.

I'd be curious to see an analysis like this based on culture. I think of Peru which had a high case/death rate despite the government's strong regulatory response. Regulation will only go so far when extended families are living in the same household.