The sooner Biden is back in, the sooner relations with Iran can be normalised, the sooner they can sell their oil and buy power station parts from us and the happier everyone will be (except for the religious right and arms manufacturers)
They’re gonna use the money to fund their proxy groups and take control of the Middle East. Then they’re gonna build a bridge of control to Israel.
When China attacks Taiwan, North Korea will attack the South and Iran will attack Israel. All three will be using massive barrages of medium range missiles.
Your strategy is just to give them what they want and they’ll be kind and we’ll all sing kumbaya.
And I’m a Biden supporter, but just saying that it’s not that simple.
Iran just want get on and be Iran. The idea they're in some sort of 3 way conspiracy is a bit silly isn't it? And given the huge military advantages Israel has, this is the least concerning of the three prospective conflicts isn't it?
Alternatively, let's assume you're right. You only have 2 options, bring them on side with trade and diplomacy. Or war.
War will make Iraq look like a fucking picnic. Iran is vastly larger. Their troops are better equipped and have higher morale. The population won't welcome American (or Israeli) troops. Even the terrain is a nightmare.
So now you either have to commit to Vietnam 2.0 only worse and longer. Or make peace.
A bit silly just because you say it’s silly? All of these actors are pushing boundaries as far as they can, and waiting for the right moment.
Israel has a tech advantage but nothing more. Plus their territory is small. One nuke would be catastrophic and a sustained missile attack would be heavy as well. Not little hezbollah missiles either.
I’m not gonna act like I have the answer. Probably to push them into a corner until a new generation takes control, and until oil is worthless or worth less.
>I’m not gonna act like I have the answer. Probably to push them into a corner until a new generation takes control, and until oil is worthless or worth less.
The issue is, that will take a shite tonne of manpower. We're trying it in Yeman right now and failing. The same in Lebanon for the last few decades.
Instead of making progress, we're actually losing. Iran has significantly increased its influence in Iraq since we "liberated it".
So we either need to start sending in troops or reconsider entirely.
I'm also hopeful that a new generation will take over and be Pro Western. It is the only long term solution here.
But that won't happen if we continue to attack Iran, Sanction them for nothing etc.
A while back, we (the west) picked Saudi as our ally in the region. That was a horrible mistake. Its time to reevaluate the whole map there and say "what's wrong with Iran as our, if not ally, person we can do business with?".
The only alternative to this is either a huge war or defeat and the whole region falling under hostile control...
This is batshit crazy. Israel is a nuclear power and SK is under the American nuclear umbrella.
NK has no plan of invasion of SK at all, and Iran will never invade Israel. It is content simply stopping Israeli agression over Syria and Lebanon which allows those countries to naturally align with Iran.
I think you really don't have any clue of geopolitics or the motivations of Iran or North Korea.
look at how Iran is funding terrorist groups that brutally oppress people in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
Syria is murky because they back the "official" government.
Just keep in mind the world is big and America is small and viewing the whole world in orange-man-bad shades is a really simplistic model and very very wrong
edit - example: read your last sentence:
"except for the religious right and arms manufacturers"
- religious right: actually don't care much about Iran, they supported the christians Armenia over the Shia Azerbaijan 2 months ago. Secular Assad over islamist (insert 20 Al Qaeda variations). So no, Iran (and its government) shouldn't hated by the religious right
- arms manufacturers: a stronger Iran = arms race in Mid East = more sales to Irans neighbors. So relaxing sanctions will be booming business for them
I only commented on the US policy as that is what's holding things up here. The EU (and even the uk) are happy and ready to trade.
Where are you from?
I'm all for a more peaceful lawful middle East. The status quo is shit.
50+ years of being tough on Iran and easy on Saudi hasn't gotten us there. Regime change in Iraq has not just failed, it was actively counter productive. The same in Afghanistan.
Maybe now is a good time to sit down with the Iranians (about the one thing no one has tried) and find a better way.
2. Massive corruption that inhibits the growth of the country
- For example: Per the last head of the Commission of Integrity (CoI) [0]. $250 Billion "lost" oil money only by Sabotaging Iraq's oil industry so you have to buy from them (under the table now, overt before). How?
- There are 12 crude oil pipes exporting Iraq's oil. 6 of them go to Um-Qasr port [1]
- 2 main ways to steal, either you poke holes on the pipe (small sized oil cartels, $250k a week or so) or political mafias that own "illegal" ports and shipyards. There are more than 60 of those (per the last head of the CoI) so they can load/unload from the ships, these mafias makes ~$5 million a week.
- When the CoI would try to send inspectors, the inspectors receive messages warning them if they enter the port of Basra they would be beheaded.
This is only 1 sample of an industry where Iranian backed terrorists run to the ground. If you look at any others (from communications, to even milk) have a similar theme.
Unfortunately the sources are all in Arabic, if you would like the Arabic sources I can point you to the interview with the last head of the CoI. I have contemplated translating those to make them more widely available but that risks the lives of my relatives back home
Don't misunderstand me, I'm not here to say Iran are a nice country and we should all drink tea together. I'm just saying, Iran are winning.
So we either need to drive them back. And that means a huge military operation lasting decades, costing trillions and with a lot of troop deaths. It will make Iraq look like a picnic. The USA will probably need to reintroduce the draft. The Europeans will want no part of it. And it will have to last 100 years.
Or we sit down and negotiate: stop fucking with Iraqs oil and we will let you sell yours too. Drop the nuclear program and you can access western markets instead (they already went for this). Stop pushing Hezbollah and we will guarantee your safety.
I don't think we have the stomach for the first option. So we negotiate it we lose.
I'm an Iranian and this is true indeed. Electricity is not cheap in Iran but people either have connection to the government or they just steal electricity. Mining doesn't require huge internet bandwidth. Many many people and companies mine various coins. Recently however, after increase in price of cryptocurrencies, the government has seen mining as mean to evade the sanctions after fall of the nuclear deal and it explains the constant electricity outages.
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[ 3.1 ms ] story [ 44.4 ms ] threadWhen China attacks Taiwan, North Korea will attack the South and Iran will attack Israel. All three will be using massive barrages of medium range missiles.
Your strategy is just to give them what they want and they’ll be kind and we’ll all sing kumbaya.
And I’m a Biden supporter, but just saying that it’s not that simple.
Alternatively, let's assume you're right. You only have 2 options, bring them on side with trade and diplomacy. Or war.
War will make Iraq look like a fucking picnic. Iran is vastly larger. Their troops are better equipped and have higher morale. The population won't welcome American (or Israeli) troops. Even the terrain is a nightmare.
So now you either have to commit to Vietnam 2.0 only worse and longer. Or make peace.
Israel has a tech advantage but nothing more. Plus their territory is small. One nuke would be catastrophic and a sustained missile attack would be heavy as well. Not little hezbollah missiles either.
I’m not gonna act like I have the answer. Probably to push them into a corner until a new generation takes control, and until oil is worthless or worth less.
The issue is, that will take a shite tonne of manpower. We're trying it in Yeman right now and failing. The same in Lebanon for the last few decades.
Instead of making progress, we're actually losing. Iran has significantly increased its influence in Iraq since we "liberated it".
So we either need to start sending in troops or reconsider entirely.
I'm also hopeful that a new generation will take over and be Pro Western. It is the only long term solution here.
But that won't happen if we continue to attack Iran, Sanction them for nothing etc.
A while back, we (the west) picked Saudi as our ally in the region. That was a horrible mistake. Its time to reevaluate the whole map there and say "what's wrong with Iran as our, if not ally, person we can do business with?".
The only alternative to this is either a huge war or defeat and the whole region falling under hostile control...
NK has no plan of invasion of SK at all, and Iran will never invade Israel. It is content simply stopping Israeli agression over Syria and Lebanon which allows those countries to naturally align with Iran.
I think you really don't have any clue of geopolitics or the motivations of Iran or North Korea.
look at how Iran is funding terrorist groups that brutally oppress people in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
Syria is murky because they back the "official" government.
Just keep in mind the world is big and America is small and viewing the whole world in orange-man-bad shades is a really simplistic model and very very wrong
edit - example: read your last sentence: "except for the religious right and arms manufacturers"
- religious right: actually don't care much about Iran, they supported the christians Armenia over the Shia Azerbaijan 2 months ago. Secular Assad over islamist (insert 20 Al Qaeda variations). So no, Iran (and its government) shouldn't hated by the religious right
- arms manufacturers: a stronger Iran = arms race in Mid East = more sales to Irans neighbors. So relaxing sanctions will be booming business for them
I only commented on the US policy as that is what's holding things up here. The EU (and even the uk) are happy and ready to trade.
Where are you from?
I'm all for a more peaceful lawful middle East. The status quo is shit.
50+ years of being tough on Iran and easy on Saudi hasn't gotten us there. Regime change in Iraq has not just failed, it was actively counter productive. The same in Afghanistan.
Maybe now is a good time to sit down with the Iranians (about the one thing no one has tried) and find a better way.
coincidently, Iran was pro regime change (to be clear so was I, terrible execution though) in Iraq.
For example, here are two ways I can list to show how detrimental Iran is to the stability, safety, and progress of my home country
1. Political assassinations (most recent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hisham_al-Hashimi, an outspoken political scientist who published reports on corruption)
2. Massive corruption that inhibits the growth of the country
- For example: Per the last head of the Commission of Integrity (CoI) [0]. $250 Billion "lost" oil money only by Sabotaging Iraq's oil industry so you have to buy from them (under the table now, overt before). How? - There are 12 crude oil pipes exporting Iraq's oil. 6 of them go to Um-Qasr port [1] - 2 main ways to steal, either you poke holes on the pipe (small sized oil cartels, $250k a week or so) or political mafias that own "illegal" ports and shipyards. There are more than 60 of those (per the last head of the CoI) so they can load/unload from the ships, these mafias makes ~$5 million a week. - When the CoI would try to send inspectors, the inspectors receive messages warning them if they enter the port of Basra they would be beheaded.
This is only 1 sample of an industry where Iranian backed terrorists run to the ground. If you look at any others (from communications, to even milk) have a similar theme.
Unfortunately the sources are all in Arabic, if you would like the Arabic sources I can point you to the interview with the last head of the CoI. I have contemplated translating those to make them more widely available but that risks the lives of my relatives back home
---- [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_of_Integrity_(Iraq) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umm_Qasr
So we either need to drive them back. And that means a huge military operation lasting decades, costing trillions and with a lot of troop deaths. It will make Iraq look like a picnic. The USA will probably need to reintroduce the draft. The Europeans will want no part of it. And it will have to last 100 years.
Or we sit down and negotiate: stop fucking with Iraqs oil and we will let you sell yours too. Drop the nuclear program and you can access western markets instead (they already went for this). Stop pushing Hezbollah and we will guarantee your safety.
I don't think we have the stomach for the first option. So we negotiate it we lose.