I've been hearing about the California exodus on Twitter, but in the real world I've been hearing about as many people moving into CA as out of CA. This event has triggered a lot of turnover, but I'm not sure if it's a net loss for CA.
The narratives about Florida or Texas becoming the next Silicon Valley are mostly being pushed by prominent VCs hoping to start a movement around their own personal moves
If it's at all useful, here are some charts from the census data. [1] No idea how accurate the census is. I would expect tax data to be more accurate. Probably more interesting would be 2020-2021.
Hmm, the article is a little light on what I think is a bigger question. Are wealthier people leaving the state and being replaced by less wealthy people?
They mention that the report found that the "movement patterns for wealthy areas were similar to those in less wealthy areas". This is kind of vague and I don't know what they mean by "wealthy areas". It would be interesting to see if they looked at homeowners versus renters who left wealthy areas. I didn't look at the study itself, so maybe they did that kind of analysis.
The reason this is important, because even a small percentage of really wealthy people leaving the state, would cause a large dip in taxes collected. So even if it turns out 1% of the wealthiest Californians left the state, that could cause big deficits in the state budget. Even if there is a bailout by the feds for this year, it could cause a lot of problems going forward.
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[ 3.4 ms ] story [ 20.0 ms ] threadThe narratives about Florida or Texas becoming the next Silicon Valley are mostly being pushed by prominent VCs hoping to start a movement around their own personal moves
[1] - https://www.newgeography.com/content/006891-california-loses...
They mention that the report found that the "movement patterns for wealthy areas were similar to those in less wealthy areas". This is kind of vague and I don't know what they mean by "wealthy areas". It would be interesting to see if they looked at homeowners versus renters who left wealthy areas. I didn't look at the study itself, so maybe they did that kind of analysis.
The reason this is important, because even a small percentage of really wealthy people leaving the state, would cause a large dip in taxes collected. So even if it turns out 1% of the wealthiest Californians left the state, that could cause big deficits in the state budget. Even if there is a bailout by the feds for this year, it could cause a lot of problems going forward.