Ask HN: How Do You Invest?
What’s your age and investment strategy? I am far more conservative with money than people at my age (mid-30s). I missed 2020 investment opportunities and as well as crypto ride.
Is there any recourse now? I am not sure if I should invest in BTC, ETH now at this high point or not.
How do you invest and how do you maximize gains over 5,10, 15 year period?
24 comments
[ 4.1 ms ] story [ 63.9 ms ] threadCrypto:
Before I tell you my approach to crypto, I will always say the best strategy is to buy and hold. But, I would learn to swing trade crypto over long period of time (2-4 years). Trading daily or even monthly time frames is very dangerous and most people lose money. To start learning I recommend watching Datadash on Youtube. I have made a lot of money in crypto learning from him and try to help other people as well. There is a lot of free money in crypto, don't think it's too late. Here are some things I would also learn:
- Bitcoin Cycles - Altcoin Cycles - Money flow: Fiat -> Bitcoin -> Altcoins - Bitcoins Logarithmic Regression - Bull/Bear Markets Definition - How to use uniswap - Basics: how to send crypto, how to set up a wallet, how to set limit orders.
The point of doing this is mostly to dispel the extremely common Dunning-Kruger effect among amateur investors. Maybe my advice will be unsatisfying for you, but there is no single right answer to how one should invest. Reading a bit about how to think about valuation, risk adjusted returns etc.[0] should help you form some opinion on an investment strategy that you will feel most comfortable with, which will be important for you to keep in mind when facing the vicissitudes of the market.
[0] A great book on how to think about investing, by Howard Marks: https://www.amazon.com/Most-Important-Thing-Illuminated-Thou...
My own experience has been that training is mostly a waste. I've seen maybe 6% raise per year if I was lucky. I'm basically in the mindset of preserving what little I have by not spending it.
I think either kind of investment works. I'd rather live with lattes and sending my kids to private school, at the cost of waking up at 5 AM to read technical books.
If you're lucky enough to get a good job after college, you also won't get that kind of ROI; I still probably get paid less than a FAANG junior.
1. pay off debt
2. Cash reserve for 12-18 months of living
3. Any state sponsored retirement savings accounts
4. Employer sponsored retirement savings accounts or investments
5. ETF / bond portfolio with dollar cost averaging
6. Fancy ETFs / crypto / stocks whatever you like
My strategy for investing is: pay into an index tracker, don’t look at the balance more than twice a year, don’t withdraw funds even in bad years, don’t touch it in general, just let it sit for 30 years.
Compound interest will do the work for you.
Currently I have $3M invested as above, plus $2M of illiquid startup equity that I cannot sell, for obvious reasons.
My 401(k) is a four-headed portfolio: 50% VTSAX, 25% bonds, 12.5% int'l index, 12.5% REIT
My IRA is mostly four-headed with a few specific longs on airlines that I like, Tesla, Palantir, and Uber.
I also have a trash account for speculative investments; mostly SPACs right now
I also have a Coinbase that is long XRP hoping that it somehow blows up like BTC but probably never will
For regular retirement accounts: The three fund portfolio is very safe against all sorts of market volatility: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio. The four fund portfolio is the three fund portfolio with some participation in REITs (to take advantage of commercial real estate gains). Avoid actively-managed options as they cost more (in management fees) while usually not providing returns above index.
If you want to do more active investing, /r/stocks is actually quite solid for learning the ropes...for now. avoid /r/wallstreetbets; it was junk before and it's even more junk now. finding the signal in that super noisy sub is very very hard
I invest what I'm willing to lose in assets that either have cashflow, or that I expect to significantly increase (2-100x) in value over the next 1-3 years. I'm invested in various cryptocurrencies and stocks, and receive cashflow from businesses.
I do not own index funds or any kind of managed funds.
(FWIW, I would not plan on anything more than 6% p.a. in real terms over the next decade.)
Or did I misunderstand you, in that you put most in conservative investments, and only the fraction that you're willing to lose into wild x100 gambles?
I'm very patient. I don't go looking for investments. I keep money around to invest, and when an opportunity is clearly a winner I put money into it.
A year ago I think it was obvious Bitcoin, Ethereum, Handshake, Taiwan Semiconductor, Tesla, Apple were all going to be great investments.
To me, diversification means not to put everything into one basket, but not to spread it around into a bunch of mediocre or obviously bad investments.
Currently bag holding after February sell off :(
I invest around 50% of my net into index funds and a few companies I am passionate about in my "fun" bucket. Atm mostly low cost global index funds with some emerging market and tech funds and some gold; no crypto.
I invest in Mutual funds and blue chip stocks. Would love to invest in crypto this year.
As far as maximizing gains over 5, 10, 15 years period I think anyone will tell you each of these time frames is significantly different. The general idea seems to be the longer the time frame the more risky/volatile assets you can stomach.
As far as cryptocurrencies go I do not understand their value proposition thus I stay away.