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Power generation when it boils down to it, whatever method used, is the conversion of momentum into electricity. Nuclear power, while pretty ingenious, seems like an example of extreme overengineering to solve a problem.

I know I'm simplifying here, but essentially, nuclear power is generated using the heat generated by the decay of radioactive material to boil water, to generate steam to spin a turbine.

This creates many challenges and hazards and generally, costs a lot of money.

There's a lot less extreme ways to generate motion and capture said motion into electricity.

Motion is everywhere. All the time. As we get better at capturing and harnessing the natural motion around us, which is the basic idea behind actual renewable energy, there's going to be less and less need for such extreme things as generating motion through radioactive decay.

Again, it's an ingenious idea and provides a lot of power in places that would otherwise be powered by fossil fuel, but it's still a short sighted solution with long term consequences that on the scale of centuries is not sustainable.

Solar doesn't fit your paradigm at all.
How not lolz? Motion of the photons from the sun.
Think of it this way: the boiling water and spinning turbine part is the easy bit.

All the hard engineering and tradeoffs in thermal/mechanical power generation, be it coal, natural gas, biofuels, hydro, or nuclear, are in dealing with the fuel/moving mass. Enormous amounts of engineering go into finding coal, digging it out of the ground, and dealing with the resulting combustion gasses and ash. The boilers and turbines - while impressive - are just one small part of that effort. Natural gas is no different: the turbines are pretty simple compared to the huge effort that goes into getting it out of the ground. Hydroelectricity again uses turbines. And again, they're relatively trivial devices compared to the huge engineering challenges of building and maintaining the dams themselves. Not to mention the complex tradeoffs around when and where to use them.

If reliable high-energy motion really was everywhere, yes, this would be easy. But that simply isn't the case. The closest we have to that is hydroelectricity, and in most countries dams have already been built on most of the available sites.

Yeah I pretty much agree with what you say. Idk why you're downvoted.

Essentially we want to make energy capture and efficient, clean, and safe as possible. Nuclear is clean until it isn't, and safe until it isn't.

It makes sense though, because solar has only recently become efficient enough to become the next big move.

That being said, even with the accidents, nuclear is cleaner and safer than something like coal or gas. I wouldn't be surprised if the same weren't true megawatt per megawatt for a solar cell with a 25 year life. More advanced facilities like Ivanpah rely on natural gas, presumably because batteries that could store power generated on site for this purpose are too costly, and I have no idea of Ivanpah's other consumables and their external costs to the environment.

I feel like the reputation with nuclear power is a lot like the reputation with airline crashes: very few and far between events that are emblazoned in the public eye with the media spectacle. You have people today who have anxiety about flying, and no issues taking an uber to the airport for this reason, despite you being much more likely to die in a car crash than a plane crash. People don't understand nuclear power that well, nor do they understand what risk means statistically, so they lean into what they've heard or sentiment among their peers which comes from media coverage designed to engage viewers rather than dry research papers.

France gets 70% of its power from nuclear - is there any discussion of how France approaches risk?

Would funding the NRC from the amount of nuclear energy being produced not just be an incentive to relax restrictions? I understand that's partly the point. But is there a danger that regulation could end up being too lax?

Is there any evidence that the increasing regulatory demands on nuclear in the US were a result of lobbying by representatives of other energy sources?

> The only deaths from the Fukushima disaster were caused by the unnecessary evacuation of 160,000 people, including seniors in nursing homes.)

This kind of revisionist statement is why people are suspect of people saying "it's bad, but not all that bad". They are usually lying about lots of things, when they supposedly have the facts on their side.

https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/radiation-from-fukushima-disaste... https://world.wng.org/2014/09/locals_suffer_long_term_effect... etc

Many of the barriers are due to simple game theory. If a project mischaracterizes or has an unlikely event that results in a leak, you cannot take it back. The damage is done and likely is out of the project's control, to some degree.

I do agree that the sentence is misleading and likely wrong (you can't be certain about how many people died of radiation, simply because the effect is so low that it's lost in noise).

On the other hand, it's not that far from the truth: Wikipedia states one(!) confirmed death from radiation and 2,202 from evacuation. In terms of objectivity, it's less terrible than anything we get from Greenpeace.

If you read your own links you'll note that literally nobody can directly attribute any negative consequences in humans from radiation.

It's all conjecture. The only direct cause of harm is the 1600 that died in the evacuation.

> It's all conjecture.

That's incorrect. It's about timing and managing public opinion. Saying they haven't died yet (or deaths not being attributeed), is a matter of PR. Splitting hairs is hand wringing of the highest order. I hand you a pellet that emits 30rads and you throw it away, but have blood disorders and hemorrhages in 6 months that ultimately kill you...was that not an attributable death?

The radiation has had a measurable effect, eg http://www2.ans.org/misc/FukushimaSpecialSession-Caracappa.p... which will not be attributed because of a lack of ability to directly correlate individuals and cancer sources via modern methods (most importantly, for liability purposes), not because there is an uncertainty about the result of such exposure in a population. It's not 0-1 deaths.

The article is full of surface-level thinking.

Probably read a propaganda book and is still buzzing with the anecdote-based arguments and "why can't we just play around with cool reactors??" rethorics.

Afaik reactors are only really built with national backing due to risk and externalized costs of decommissioning and long term waste disposal.

We stopped dumping nuclear waste into the coastal ocean and now it became a lot more expensive.

We can't even deal with fricking plastic in the ocean and phtalates in drinking water, I have real trouble taking someone seriously who swats away any sort of concern, wishing back thr good old 60s way of doing things.

"Cool" anecdotes about strict regulation seeming rediculous, superficially mind you.

I really struggle with the nuclear propaganda as of late, especially with this anti-renewable stance mixed in.

Meh, even if I like the technology from a nerd-perspective, fuck nuclear power. We can't even get mainstream software buffer-overflow free. The techno-progress enthusiasm of our grandparents era has long lost it's shine.

Of course we can write code that is buffer overflow free and safe and secure in every other manner too. We just can't do it when prioritizing new features, writing to a spec defined by committee and having limited resources, with thousands of competing interests.

For a nuclear power plant where focus is on safety first and the code in the critical paths would be limited and the spec defined then and there for verifiability, the system could probably even be proven correct.

How does this explain why new reactors in the US are incredibly expensive while they have not experienced such massive inflation in South Korea? Are you supposing that South Korea is dumping nuclear waste into the ocean or building unsafe reactors or not pricing in some massive externality (into the planning and construction costs) or something else?
Your stance seems contradictory to me. We are unable to manage comparatively very compact nuclear power facilities, so we will litter the world with solar, hydro and wind generators, all of which are required in incomparably large quantity? It seems like nuclear power would make the risk more centralized and predictable.
> But costs [to build nuclear power infrastructure] in the US are around 2–3x that.

That's a bit of an odd turn in a narrative that begins with a global perspective, including developing nations. USA-only from that point on.

It's well-known that the USA has general problems with infrastructure costs, far from limited to nuclear power plants.

Costs don’t seem to be much better in the rest of the world either.

Nuclear plants opening on time and on budget are pretty rare.

Yes, I think that undercuts a lot of the book / article unless you believe that the US is setting the standard here and everyone else just follows.
TL;DR: over regulation and government entities being inefficient
Shouldn't this question be asked in a larger context? Since the moon landing, pretty much every major government-led initiative has been less successful than the one before, as far as I can think of. (Admittedly this is my "general sense" and not based on any exhaustive research).

Is nuclear power special? I don't think so. I think it's just more sensitive to the various pathologies that have crept into the US political system over the past 5 decades.

If I wrote a history of modern technology since 1960, my first guess at a theme would be "the government led the development of many major new technologies then people decided it wasn't good at this, and it passed all the profits on to private companies--who then stopped working on big breakthroughs (mostly)"

Again, maybe I'm wrong, but that's my hypothesis.

Yep. For example, here in Stockholm they recently built a new regional hospital. It turned out to be many times over budget and is one of the most expensive buildings in the world with a total construction cost exceeding that of Burj Khalifa.

The book review doesn't mention New Public Management which I think is odd. Nuclear construction costs started to skyrocket at precisely the time NPM became vogue. NPM states that governments are bad at doing stuff and should do as little as possible. Everything governments need should be acquired from private companies who bid for contracts. Lowest bidders win.

This almost never works because companies' motives are different from governments'. The government wants the nuclear plant built on time. The company who won the contract doesn't mind if it takes twice as long because that could mean twice the profit. So governments respond by adding more stipulations and regulations to the contracts which only makes it easier for companies to find exploitable loopholes in them to extract more tax-payer money.

As in any big government-connected project in the US, today, whether it involves tunnels (Big Dig, 2nd Ave subway, Yucca Mountain), military procurement (F-35, literally dozens of others), manned spaceflight (STS, ISS, SLS) or construction projects, notably nuke plants and "high-speed rail", and even fusion "research", waste and cost overruns are not problems.

Rather, they are the whole point of the projects. They provide a steady, voluminous, years-long, indictment-proof flow of public money to select private pockets under control of select politicians. Initial cost estimates are always entirely fictional, with no intention ever to deliver anything at the promised price.

This is a reason why "small modular nuke" has never gained traction in the US: there is just not enough scope for massive wholly-legal corruption.

It has taken many decades, but the US has achieved world domination in high-level legalized corruption. It is largely impossible for honest, legitimate projects to compete for backers, except, lately, solar and wind power farms, which can be built very quickly and start delivering power before they are even finished.

Reminds me of a certain “High-Speed Rail to Nowhere” trying to gain traction as a perpetual sink of taxpayers’ money.
Social factors.

Today's governments wouldn't have the state capacity and ambition to achieve what those of the 1940s-1980s were capable of. We've regressed; we're incompetent and moat of our effort is directed at virtue signalling rather than progress.

Nuclear power is just one aspect of this.

Reading the histories of any public infrastructure project is just depressing. The dissolution of the works projects administration, which is sorely needed today given much of our infrastructure still dates to that period, and perhaps building a schoolhouse or a bridge is more productive and fruitful a job than driving for uber. The atomic energy commission throwing in the towel and dissolving in the face of public opposition (read: to save face for some politicians). The US freeway system being halted in its tracks in the 1960s and forever doomed to be overcapacity and congested in cities like Los Angeles. LA's multiple opportunities to construct a sprawling subway or elevated rail system decades ago when work was cheap, now lines cost billions and take decades, and are riddled with compromises to favor the automobile on the roads. A lack of any initiative to meaningfully coat an American city in bike and bus lanes, despite this advanced technology being merely a can of paint and a new citation on the books. A lack of any plan to stymie the crisis of mentally ill people living in danger on the street, who refuse voluntary aid.

It's hard to have hope for the future of our country when you can drive around and literally see it fall apart on a daily basis. I drive around on crumbling roads and see countless shanty towns and addicts 50 feet from $2 million dollar homes. I see median apartments priced where the median worker has to give half of their pay to their landlord. What's the plan? Pass the buck to the next guy in office forever, seemingly.

Cost.

No, not the cost of construction, though that's fairly pricey.

No, not the cost of production. That's actually the best part about nuclear energy. It's remarkably cheap and safe for energy production.

The biggest, costliest and most horrific thing about nuclear energy is what you do after you have finished using that nuclear power station.

You have, quite often, thousands or even millions of tons of radioactive waste to dispose of. Where do you put that? How do you dismantle the construction without causing contamination of the site and the surroundings for miles around? What about the medical costs of looking after the demolition workers as they develop cancers later in life?

But don't take my word for it. Look at Chernobyl and Fukushima. If the task wasn't so difficult, why are those disaster areas still existing? Chernobyl was nearly forty years ago. Fukushima was ten years ago. Still causing problems.

Ex energy worker here.

In the US, nuclear power plant projects live or die based on i) regulatory approval (social and technical approval) and ii) insurance. Insurance makes or breaks the project, and currently, there is essentially no way to move forward but in a limited number of circumstances.

Chernobyl and Fukushima cleanup length and cost are a byproduct of this belief:

"The official model guiding US government policy, both at the EPA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is the Linear No Threshold model (LNT). LNT says that cancer risk is directly proportional to dose, that doses are cumulative over time (rate doesn‘t matter), and that there is no threshold or safe dose.?

The author points out that the danger of long term low level radiation is much smaller than what is commonly believed, which means that cleanup does not need to be as thorough and expensive.

This is the big question. It seems to me that LNT is definitely wrong, there is a threshold. The question is.. what is that threshold, and how likely is it that biological system will actually trigger that threshold, IE food chains and other natural phenomena.

Cleanup may not need to be as expensive as we thought, but isn't the only way to tell for sure.. loss of human life / cancer?

It seems to me that LNT is definitely wrong, there is a threshold. The question is.. what is that threshold

Coincidentally, my brother was a PhD in Zoology and his doctorate thesis back in the 1960s was whether or not there is a threshold for radiation damage on fruit-flies. His results indicated that there was no threshold. Radiation damage is proportional to the dosage.

Nature, 1961 "Radiosensitive Stages in the Spermatogenesis of Drosophila melanogaster" - Strangio, V. A.

The actual thesis is a bit too technical for my complete understanding.

The alternative hypothesis is activation, that is that low doses of radiation are actually benificial to organism. There seems to be some evidence, and that's why people sometimes deliberately inhale radon. Cf https://www.bad-kreuznach-tourist.de/en/health-resort-therap...
Please don't inhale radon!
Why would I?
> people sometimes deliberately inhale radon

People do dumb things when they read stuff like this.

Hinkley C in the UK is projected to cost at least £23 billion. Vogtle in the USA is projected to cost at least $27 billion.

These construction costs alone could be what finally kills nuclear power in the West.

This is the U.S. $27 billion is chump change this decade. We pay over $3 billion per mile of subway track now in NYC.
Great summary. What’s your take on 4th generation reactors?
>Nuclear incumbents aren‘t upset that billions of dollars are thrown away on waste disposal and unnecessary cleanup projects—they are getting those contracts. For instance, 8,000 people are employed in cleanup at Hanford, Washington, costing $2.5B a year, even though the level of radiation is only a few mSv/year, well within the range of normal background radiation.

While I largely agree with the author, this misunderstands what is being cleaned up at Hanford. Hundreds of millions of gallons of nitric acid containing hundreds of tons of Plutonium are sitting in huge 70+ year old tanks that are slowly leaking. Stabilizing this waste is not throwing money away. Obviously the background radiation is no higher than anywhere else.

This disingenuous argument the author is using should make you question bis other points too, even (especially) those you happen to agree with.
Ok. What else do you think he gets wrong and why? I don't think this argument is disingenuous because if he knew more about that particular cleanup effort he would not have used it as an example. You can't ever know more about at topic than everyone on the internet combined.
Nuclear power is (and I presume even more so will be) the best option for outer space energy provision use-case, and at the same time it does not present that much of an edge in using it here on Earth, considering the alternatives. Consuming it on Earth here and there in small proportion just to develop and improve the technology as the primary goal makes sense, but relying on nuclear energy large scale generation? It feels like wasting this invaluable and (literally) non-replenish-able resource that may be badly needed in the future.
Why?

Cost and regulation, but even if it was cheaper and unregulated it`s a terrible technology for electrical generation. It`s an over-hyped steam turbine. You heat shit up real hot and then turn a wheel. That`s it! It`s laughable and with the addition of being massively dangerous to human health and then all those other additions such as cost, etc. Nikola Tesla was producing electricity with metal plates and hand built capacitors in the 20th century for cheap and people think we need a nuclear plant to produce electricity for a nation? Give me a break. Ridiculous, just ridiculous.

My pet armchair theory: that's because nuclear power requires humans to be consistently superhuman (smart, precise, meticulous, thinking ahead). Solar, wind, oil and gas don't -- a normal human can run all these things perfectly fine.
Modern renewable power is like a server farm, whereas nuclear power is like an old mainframe. Server failure is built into the server farm model, whereas mainframes try to avoid failure through expensive redundancy in the mainframe server.
Because those reactors are always build with ignoring the decommission and its costs.
A typical nuclear reactor produces 1 gigawatt (GW) of electricity. That doesn’t mean you can simply replace it with a 1 gigawatt coal or renewable plant. IDK how it is a flop.
The article says: "nuclear power produces very little waste"

Is that true? Does it take into account all the nuclear waste that takes millions of years to fade out?

Wouldn't it be fair to calculate "waste produced" as "amount x (duration to be fully recycled)"?

Example calculation based on my amateurish guestimates give us then: residual waste takes maybe 500 years until it's organic earth for planting again. Nuclear waste takes 5 million years, so does a nuclear plant really produce 500 years / 5.000.000 years = 1/50.000th of waste than comparable powerplants?

> Is that true?

> (1) The U.S. generates about 2,000 metric tons of used fuel each year. This number may sound like a lot, but it’s actually quite small. In fact, the U.S. has produced roughly 83,000 metrics tons of used fuel since the 1950s—and all of it could fit on a single football field at a depth of less than 10 yards. https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/5-fast-facts-about-spent-....

When compared to coal, the a single coal plant produces nearly as much toxic (and radioactive) ash in an hour http://energyforhumanity.org/en/nuclear/what-do-we-do-with-a...

And this ignores recycling (that the U.S. doesn't have, but the French are notorious for (modern reactor technology) that reduces waste to 10%.

Nuclear power's market fit has been seriously eroded over the past 10 years or so. Over the past decade both wind and solar have been exceeding by a wide margin their expected cost reductions. It's very clear now that these cost reductions will continue for at least another ten years at which point nuclear will have no chance at all of being cost competitive.

Almost as important, a nuclear power plant represents one big lump of power supply that takes years and years to complete. Whereas wind and solar can be built to completion incrementally in a year or two which is a much more budget friendly way to finance future energy supply. And of course wind and solar benefit from the cost reductions year by year.

The only positive for nuclear is that governments would like to keep a stock of nuclear trained scientists on hand just in case they are needed for a weapons initiative.

The nuclear industry is aware of all of the above and will engage in a protracted propaganda campaign to try and right the sinking ship. Though at this point it really looks hopeless.