Do Cryptocurrencies Provide ANY() Real-Economic Value at All?
I am aksing myself if cryptocurrencies provide ANY "real-economic value" AT ALL! I would be glad if anybody could convince me of APPLICATIONS where cryptocurrencies provide any real-economic value.
My thoughts:
- By "real economic" value creation I consider eg the introduction of the "SEPA Instant Credit Transfer" schemes (pan-European credit transfers in <10 sec). This creates real economic value by minimizing both (i) speed and (ii) fees. This really benefits general society.
- Q1. What is the benefit of using cryptocurrencies over such schemes? I see none. On the contrary, cryptocurrencies add an ADDITIONAL (and therefore, if not yielding a benefit, by definition unnecessary) LAYER.
- Q2. Why should cryptocurrencies exist at all? Every country already has its native currency. Why introduce another one? (In fact, why MULTIPLE ones?) Suppose you want to transfer USD-->EUR. Why transfer USD-->BTC-->EUR instead? This incurrs (i) 2 instead of 1 currency trafo risks and (ii) 2 trafo fees.
- Q3. "Smart contracts". All (democratic) countries have courts in place to settle legistlative disputes between two parties. What's wrong with this arrangement. Again, blockchain-based "smart contracts" would just an ADDITIONAL (unnecessary) LAYER.
Conclusions:
- ALL you need for the creation of future "real-economic value" is the INTERNET. Currencies are in place. Legislative institutions are in place. You just have to further digitize. There is no need to add additional (unnecessary) cryptocurrency layers.
Comments:
- I am not anti-crypto (owned quite a bit until I came to above conclusions, and definitiely consider it valuable at least from a academic perspective). I just can't see how "it is useful" beyond "speculation".
- I don't accept explanations like "Bitcoin is Gold 2.0", "Hedge against inflation" unless they are really founded. To me these sound just like made-up hype narratives.
Best regards
110 comments
[ 2.9 ms ] story [ 176 ms ] threadAlso, it's a decent option for international transfers. International wires are more expensive (even when compared to current BTC tx fees) and slow (2+ business days). And if either the sender or the recipients doesn't have a bank account are reduces to Western Union or similar, which is simple robbery. I don't know what SEPA Instant Transfer Credits are, but I suspect you need a bank account.
The original use case related to international transfers was remittances... ie, immigrants sending money home. In reality I suspects it's used much more often for getting money out of certain countries like China that have set limits on outgoing transfers.
Now consider a stock issued by a company as the NFT.
With traditional stocks, the issuing company only obtains funds one time. All future value gains are captured by traders.
Finally, consider issuing stock that as NFT with the contract above.
In this model, as a stock rises in value, both the company and traders gain.
Adding a blockchain also adds a number of complexities which would lower the value: you need to hedge against bugs in the smart contract (the Ethereum folks probably won’t rewrite history again for you), there’s a complex and expensive tech stack you need to support instead of a sheet of paper, and you have limited your potential buyers to those comfortable with that and on your particular system rather than another one.
At every point, you (the person who controls the thing with actual value) can choose to simply ignore the blockchain in many ways: not sharing profits with shareholders, selling a real-world object outside of the same blockchain, making copies of a digital object or listing the same thing on many NFTs, using a smart contract with a bug or unreliable oracle which you can exploit, etc. My recourse is my ability to sue you for breach of contract.
How are people going to re-sell an NFT when its metadata points to a file that 404s.
Overall I don't really like or care about NFTs.
We’ve been running various pocs on it, with major and minor suppliers, crypto-people? (not sure what to call those techie/artist/idealists or what they call themselves) and the universities for the better part of two decades now in the European public sector. We’ve never been capable of finding a reason to use it. I do get the argument about stuff like land ownership in more corrupt countries, but you it still sort of turns into an utopian dream, because no-one in those regimes really care if you’re right. All the proof in the world doesn’t stop people with guns from taking your positions.
I think Maersk and it’s containershipping business, and it’s blockchain based proof of container authenticity is one of the few examples where the technology actually works better than anything else. And that’s mainly because Maersk itself is big enough, and has big enough legal support, to refuse containers that are tampered with. Sort of like the corrupt government situation, but inverse.
For finance it has no real value for legal purposes, again because trust is sort of worthless when your authorities aren’t with it. You can’t deny it’s “get rich quick” schemes of course, and it’s extremely valuable for white-washing money, dealing with black-Market goods and various forms of fraud. Which isn’t really value to dismiss, considering how big a GDP international crime has.
Literally nothing in that project requires blockchain.
And nothing that a blockchain has proves anything about a container's authenticity: it's a slow, inefficient database of the same data that has to be manually entered by multiple people in multiple places.
pay someone in a foreign country. Do it again except at 2am on a Sunday.
Wire someone some money. Now do the same outside bankings hours. Now do the same but try and do a test transaction first.
Try setting up a new company. Add a vesting clause. Now handle actual distribution of dividends. Measure the time and legal fees in the non crypto version.
“This week Royal Motors, which distributes Rolls-Royce and Lotus cars in Turkey, became the first business in the country to accept payments in cryptocurrencies.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-crypto-currency-idINK...
What other countries do you consider a cesspit? What is your criteria for a cesspit?
Q2: Because when central banks become unreliable, or hyperinflation kicks in (Venezuela, Greece), trade using the central bank currency may become hard. You wouldn't transfer USD→COIN→EUR, but USD→COIN, and then use the coin directly.
Q3: Laws are not computer programs. They are ambiguous and execute in the brains of a few humans. Smart contracts are precise, and they require the entire population of coin users to disagree with the computed outcome.
Your conclusion does not take into account the case of not trusting government institutions.
Lol every month or so some smart contract bug gets exploited and coins get stolen.
That's what enforcement is, not just some rules in a spreadsheet.
You could setup a similar incentive system as smart contracts. If your tenant does not pay, you could get him evicted much fatser and automatically, because another smart contract can pay the enforcer. And the overall fees are subsidized and tradeable.
Of course we're far away from doing that and both approaches have pros and cons, but it's arguable that the "human-managed" approach is clearly superior.
Yes, the enforcer is not (necessarily) part of the contract. But if the right incentive system is in place and there is consensus that physical enforcement should happen - anyone approved could take that job/risk and be the enforcer.
With such a system you may not even need a physical enforcer since the risk of not getting the tenant out could be tradeable (like an insurance) and the owner would get his rent even if the tenant cannot be evicted immediately. In case of the tenant, there would be huge negative financial incentives to stay.
1. An incentive to evict someone. Money. Someone needs to get paid to actually do the eviction because they are taking on some risk - physical in this case. It doesn't matter how they get paid. A smart contract can do that.
2. "Social/Legal consensus" that performing the physical eviction is the right thing to do. The person performing the eviction should not get punished for it. If the state and breach of contract is transparent on the blockchain this consensus could be achieved.
3. A way to confirm the eviction to pay the evictor.
Also, you are ignoring the fact that, at least where I live, only one entity can legally evict a tenant - the county sheriff (in their role as an agent of the court). You cant just hire some random thugs.
Welcome to mafia shakedowns
> "Social/Legal consensus" that performing the physical eviction is the right thing to do.
That "social/legal consensus" is called laws, and they are enforced through a central authority.
> If the state and breach of contract is transparent on the blockchain
Who exactly is deciding "the state and breach of contract"? You can start from the fact that smart contracts are not even written in a human language.
> A way to confirm the eviction to pay the evictor.
People were paying each other for thousands of years without smart contracts
The same principle applies here as physical eviction is fundamentally about risk. There is an "auction" on the eviction and potential evictors can decide how risky the eviction is. More risky evictions will require a larger payout.
In Italy (and I bet in many other European countries) this is the public force that is in charge of doing this and there are a lots of exceptions (for instance, here, you cannot easily evict a family where there are children or sick people).
And if you involve the pubic force, then you are inherently accepting the concept of a central trusted authority, hence the decentralisation fails as a requirement.
You have three fundamental tools to worth with: money, time and signaling consent. The only way to enforce consequences without lawyers is collateral.
So, you could have a contract that requires two months rent as a deposit to start. From there you can have simple rules: if the contract expires, the tenant gets the deposit back. At the end of the contract, the landlord can take up to 1 month’s rent from the deposit to cover damages. If the contract is canceled, the tenant does not get the second month-worth of deposit back. The contract is canceled if the rent is not paid on time or if the landlord + some notary-like third party sign off on cancellation. Etc...
For example, in most places, tenants may stop paying rent if their heat breaks in the winter and the landlord won't fix it promptly.
The central authority will always be human courts. Smart contracts can't observe or record anything except crypto, which makes them useless in 99% of contractual disputes.
The point isn't to get rid of humans or trusted 3rd parties. It's to get reduce the reliance on a single centralized entity that may be corrupt, inefficient, or malicious.
This makes sense only in places with very corrupt legal systems.
But if the legal system is corrupt in favor of one side (let's assume it's the landlord), why would the landlord mutually agree to arbitration?
Please provide a very specific example of something that happens now that a smart contract would fix. I can't think of anything.
They already did, asking again isn't going to get you the answer you want.
You described the renting market as having a high threshold for bias in order to be ineffective. I don't really think this is true, it's quite difficult in most states to go to court to seek damages for rental property. Even the eviction process is not straight forward and requires the participation of both a court and a marshal to serve notice. What smart contracts replace is a lot of the court mechanisms that are low hanging fruit. It takes some stress off of the system, but certainly not all, and that seems like it could be "good enough".
The person I was responding to gave only generalities.
> What smart contracts replace is a lot of the court mechanisms that are low hanging fruit.
What court mechanisms?
Let me give you a specific example.
I'm a landlord with a rental contract. In my state (as in many states), there are hundreds of statutes dictating the boundaries of this contract. There are also thousands of cases in common law that influence what I can and can't contract. For example, my tenant cannot contract away certain rights, even if they sign a legal document saying that they did it.
Scenario A: I use a smart contract stipulating that if there are damages, I can hold the security deposit.
Scenario B: I have a paper contract stipulating the same (although in many states there are statutes that say this, so the contract is just repeating existing law).
Now let's say I find "damage" and the renter disputes it.
How has the smart contract helped me? What difference did it make? In many situations, the smart contract enforcing itself without 100% understanding of the physical world or existing law would violate the law.
So that's how specific I'm asking you (or anyone) to be: give me a specific scenario where the smart contract enforces something in a reliable, efficient way that is significantly better/safer for either party.
And I'll doubt you'll get that specific of answers because those implementations are fairly new. You'll likely see proof of concepts developed to streamline or back up existing processes first, the underlying technology adjusted to fit the usecases, rinse, and repeat. All that to say, it's not going to holistically solve every problem for you up front, as the commenter pointed out.
What I can see is that it streamlines some of the mediation and court intervention processes. What our notable gains from that would be remain to be seen, but for my parents who are landlords that have had to evict tenants it could mean that simple cases don't require a court. Maybe they get some review by someone who would best be described as an auditor or mediator to check the outcome.
Smart contracts can’t observe anything but time, crypto and signaling from users/automated services. For disputes you need an independent third party to cast a deciding vote. A government judge is common option. But, you and I can agree to grant that vote to a non-government agent instead.
Legal rental contracts are non-trivial. A rental smart contract would similarly require more rules than we care to spell out here. But, “If the tenant and the notary both vote that there is bullshittery going on with the property, rent is suspended.” sounds like a reasonable thing to include.
All the benefits of smart contracts are available with regular old software.
Why hasn't software destroyed these services already?
> “If the tenant and the notary both vote that there is bullshittery going on with the property, rent is suspended.” sounds like a reasonable thing to include.
Why do you need a smart contract for this? The tenant can do this right now without any software help or public ledger.
First, I think the word you're looking for is arbitrator. Notaries don't resolve disputes.
Second, you've simply replaced a judge with a "notary", and left many questions unanswered. Who is this trusted 3rd party? How are they accountable? Can you appeal their judgements? Do they have an ongoing business relationship with one of the parties? And so on.
I suspect that by the time you've answered all those questions, and dealt with all the issues that arise that require human judgement, you'll have reinvented government. Or worse, digitized mandatory arbitration.
Except when a third party finds bugs in the smart contract code and diverts the rent payments to themselves.
For common situations like rent, open-source contracts are inevitable. This will give people who could never afford lawyers (think 3rd world) access to much of the results middle class Americans take for granted.
Even in 3rd world countries you will need someone to understand programming and contracts to verify that the smart contract actually implements what you've agreed on.
So you're replacing "government agents installed through corruption" with "saints beyond reproach because smart contracts"?
And somehow this won't also end up artificially boosting the "reputation" of potential arbitrators?
(Or perhaps the government will make it clear that anyone who acts as an arbitrator without government authorization will spend a long time in a small cell.)
When I was renting my apartment in Sweden, the contract was literally one page long. It was written in such a simple language that I could understand it even with a rudimentary knowledge of Swedish.
When I was buying my apartment, the contract was four pages long, and the language wasn't much harder.
Now, with an Ethereum contract I would have to learn an esoteric programming language, look at the contract's source code, verify that it actually corresponds to an actual contract that we already agreed to.
And all that even without getting into the question of who's going to enforce this contract, and how.
And don't forget, in many jurisdictions an "IOU $50" written on a napkin is a legally binding contract requiring zero lawyers.
This is very important to some people and the current economic systems don't allow that to occur. It's "real" economic value even if you don't think it's right.
In some parts of the world, government is hostile towards their own population, either by incompetence or malice. Debasement of the national fiat currency is theft perpetrated by the government and crypto provides an alternative for that.
Can you just use US Dollars? Sure you can. But your government can search you for the bills. Or they can block the specific website you're using or the US banks can be hostile towards citizens of your country (Neteller, skrill and several others outright banned Venezuelan citizens, and some US banks are making difficult the process to open bank accounts)
But how about volatility? Sure is a problem. But with fiat you know is only going down, at least with crypto it can go up.
Is always interesting seeing the threads on HN on crypto and how it never considers an actual hostile government.
How? If your government decides to take your stuff, they’re not going to say “some nerds in another country said no, guess we have to let them keep it” - they’re just going to fine, jail, or abuse you until you turn over the keys (better hope you can convince them you didn’t have anything more which you aren’t still concealing). Blockchains helpfully give them your full transaction history so it becomes exceptionally dangerous to engage in transactions with anyone you know in country since you don’t know whether they are or will ever be giving that data to the authorities.
The underlying problem is the repressive government. This is not a technical problem and you’re not going to be able to solve it with a complex, easily tracked technology which preserves a full history of your non-compliance for prosecution.
Even a not-really-hostile-goverment-but-more-like-incompetent can do a lot of damage by debasing the currency. Now the citizens have tools to fight their incompetence.
If only for this reason, is better to have crypto than not have it. I can came up for a lot of reasons why I think Tik-Tok is useless, but is useful for a lot of people, so no reason for me to to bash it.
How? Nobody needs cryptocurrency to pay their bills and statistically nobody uses it - many, like Bitcoin, are designed to discourage regular usage – so all the government has to do is control exchange points in the local economy. Until you can pay taxes or rent, buy groceries, etc. that gives the government more control than they get with cash.
Since cryptocurrencies provide a full irrepudiable audit trail, that also makes it extremely risky to try to skirt local regulations since any attempt to do a transaction under the table has an inherent risk that the other party, willingly or not, is or ever will be giving data to to government. Since we’re talking about systems which have spent many years failing to be capable or desirable for routine use even in countries which don’t have strict rules limiting use, it seems unlikely that this would provide any significant protection in a more repressive regime.
The other thing you have to remember is that the quasi-religious desire for deflationary behavior from cryptocurrency proponents isn’t what most people want. Deflation causes economic contraction and favors rich asset holders who have reliable revenue streams – unless that’s you, the modest inflation targeted by most central banks is a much better deal.
The coins aren't any good unless you can spend them. And for the foreseeable future, governments have complete control over that
Actually.... governments are demonstrably losing control over that.
Governments worldwide are in process of destroying their currencies.
CBDBs will be social credit mechanisms of control.
Cryptos protect you from government. This year's run is because institutions are figuring out that bonds are dead and fiats are headed for hyperinflation, and CBDBs will be constructed in a way to preclude savings and capital formation.
If you agree PayPal did provide real economic value, you admit the system before it was imperfect.
So PayPal fixed the last hole in the system?
VeChain [0] for example, has been quietly establishing itself as a viable solution for supply chain transparency [1]. Walmart uses VeChain through its Food Traceability Platform [2].
[0] - https://www.vechain.org/
[1] - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415383-vechain-is-blockcha...
[2] - https://traceability.walmartmobile.cn/walmart/p/100074210400...
Q1. by accepting and preferring BTC as a payment for my services, I was able to retain better value/purchasing power from my labour long-term. By changing my fiat currency to BTC I was able to also increase my purchasing power. Clear value to me. I don't know if this has some externalities and don't care really. My transactions are legal and counterparties have been as happy as people in typical business transactions are.
Q2. It doesn't have to exist, it happens to exist and you can choose not to use it.
Q3. "Smart contract" is a marketing term and "smart contracts" are not replacing traditional courts in any sensible way. The whole claim is just nonsense (there is much bullshit in crypto).
There are plenty of people who have been ruined by bitcoin as well. The fact that you were either lucky enough to ride the right waves, or smart enough to see the bad ones, does not equate to any value at all.
Q2. Why should Apple stock exist when we already have dollars? Why should Brazilian Real exist when we already have dollars? I wouldn't trade USD for BTC for EUR. I would probably trade USD for EUR directly. As a consumer, the best place I can do this is FTX, a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, because they provide end-users with the extremely competitive forex rates of a Hong Kong bank's OTC desk. The second-best place is probably IBKR which provides extremely competitive rates because it's literally a forex broker but takes days to wire money in and out. The third-best place is probably Shinsei Bank, which is one of the two most popular banks for foreigners in Japan and provides suspiciously good forex rates compared to all other consumer banks in the world.
Q3. "Smart contracts" are not really a replacement for the legal system. They are, at least for now, mostly a way to build non-custodial versions of traditional financial products. Again, this is sort of like saying "Why do we have oil futures and SPY puts when you can just buy oil or sell SPY?"
Re: Conclusions: Ok, but did you try to use the internet to let your US customers pay you dollars which you would then give to your US creators who create pornography for your customers? How many providers accepted this proposal? What fees do they charge?
Beside this, like the OP, I also fail to see clear cases where the cryptocurrencies provide significative advantage, let alone blockchains outside the cryptocurrencies.
All other merchant accounts also charge more money in fees than the consensus network I prefer to use. It's just an extreme example to probably not even have a merchant account.
"why not just fix every government policy everywhere" doesn't sound very practical to me. it has my support though!
If the crazy stuff settles down, it might maybe someday become an actual currency that people can use to exchange legit goods and services safely. Currency should be boring.
I wonder a lot if the crazy aspects of crypto currency are by design or if I utterly misunderstand even the fundamental nature of currency. For one thing, why have the computational simulacrum of mining? Why does crypto currency NEED to use outrageous amounts of power solving puzzles to "mine" bitcoins? Is this manufactured scarcity really needed to bootstrap it as a currency? The white papers I've seen don't seem to address that kind of stuff, but are perfectly happy to obfuscate the "why" aspects.
We're far away from both because, like you said, countries, governments are regulations are not going away anytime soon. But I do think it's inevitable that things will change and "global programmable finance" becomes the standard. I think it will follow something like Planck's principle [0] - it's not going to happen because people are going to be convinced by crypto, but because the next generation will adopt crypto as more of a default.
At least for me, that's the reason I'm involved in crypto. I can't think of a tangible benefit I get from transacting in crypto, but I would much rather live in a world where countries, governments, and banks are less powerful and more transparent than they are now.
I think in 100-200 years we may look back and ask ourselves how we could ever live with inefficient and corrupt governments, financial, and legal systems that are based on geographical locality instead of them being internet-based. We probably won't be using the current incarnation of crypto, but I doubt the current institutions will survive, and crypto is a step towards that.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle
ie: If Bitcoin had existed in the 1930's many Jews could have fled Nazi Germany with their life savings.
As for other platforms like Ethereum it's more about trusted middleman disintermediation. You put you money in a bank to receive 0.5% APR while they lend it out 3-10%. Why the spread? DeFi cuts out the fat and replaces it with protocols to pass more on to both sides of the transaction.
The ultimate disintermediation is governance. With strong cryptography and smart contracts new forms of governance are possible such as liquid democracy.
Similar to representative democracy of today except if you don't like how your representative is voting on an issue you can veto and cast your own vote. You can also choose which representative to delegate to rather than be being forced a rep by majority.
This all sounds like platitude, but what these all share in common is enabling individual freedom and in a world that is continually eroding individual freedoms, crypto begins to look increasingly more valuable.
How can the network know that two people with ordinary CPUs are two distinct people, while that person over there with an AntMiner isn't 1000 people, even though their relative PoW output suggests they are?
Tying the mathematical world to the real world has always been a problem with these schemes.
If it can't tell a group of people from one person with a mining rig, then the liquid democracy becomes one dollar one vote rather than one person one vote, and we all know how democratic that is.
I don't need a government, bank, or anyone besides the other side of my transaction to be involved in it.
For example:
1) Money transfer - with no central point of failure or central point of control, a blockchain database provides trustless support to verify and maintain a history of transactions. But to do the work, economic incentives to workers must be applied.
Example: Bitcoin
2) Storage - once again, no central point of failure or control, with a blockchain providing the history and data regarding what is stored, and with cryptocurrency providing economic incentive for someone to provide storage to the network.
Example: Siacoin
3) Contracts - trustless contracts or escrow, maintained in a blockchain database with code for execution maintained on the blockchain as well. Verification and execution of code is done by workers who are incentivized by cryptocurrency.
Example: Ethereum
Why use cryptocurrency instead of USD? Because USD isn't electronic and is heavily regulated. As much as we like to think our money system is electronic, its really only hacky applications on top of our existing banking system. I used to work at a very large bank in the payments processing division, and you have no idea how many times they screwed up payments across the entire world. Sunday morning deployments often involved double-charges, missed charges, and overall screwing up virtually every merchant in North America. The only reason our monetary system hasn't collapsed is because people work very, very hard to fix all of these hidden failures. Cryptocurrencies remove the human element and provide a more efficient, error-free system.
This is an application of blockchain technology that becomes much more expensive without it. The hassle of hiring people around the world, paying them, and rating their work objectively is expensive and very difficult.