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If it is not aliens then it could be time-traveling earthlings.
It would be much coherent with their behaviour : their tropism toward military aeras and for powerfull countries and some sense of the actual world stage.
It's dolphins, duh. Notice how 100% of the credible sightings are over the ocean.
I do wonder what peoples reactions are going to be if the government comes out in next months congress report and just admits that these UAP's are real, in black-and-white terms.

There's lots of conjecture around about these being sensor errors or tricks of the eye, but when you're spending millions to train people to become pretty much the best trained observers you can get - and they spot this kind of thing - how can you continue to dismiss it as a non-physical object.

"If" it's aliens there's not much you can do, though that's the less likely outcome I can see. More likely, "If" its a foreign power with exotic technology/ some new way to perform recon then that's a real concern, and dismissing it off-hand should be even more concerning.