WFH is prelude to SWE salary cuts

SWE's actually build the systems that their businesses use to do business, and are paid accordingly. Without them, companies would not be as competitive. IT centered companies in particular would go out of business. Software businesses literally only exist to support software engineers, much like architecture firms exist solely for supporting architects. That is why good architects make a lot of money and why good software engineers make a lot of money.

Hardware based businesses, like building bridges, are paying engineers for designs, not fully functional products. You're comparing apples to oranges in comparing mechanical or electrical engineering to software engineering. In hardware businesses that do not directly profit from software, the pay for a software engineer is more in line with other engineers.

Top software talent will always command a major premium and will be required by software companies. But otherwise yes, it is entirely possible that SV talent will see a 10%-15% drop in pay to work remotely somewhere cheaper to live.

Take the example of the civil engineer you provided. The bridge he/she designs doesn't scale -- it supports a constant flow of people and goods and services through it. Doesn't that make it less valuable than the example engineer's software, which can scale up (and FAANG level software is usually processing/exchanging similar if not greater value)? Also a civil engineer's job is less valuable if less people are commuting, there's less of a need for bridges. Also if studies show that SWE's are more productive working from home (don't have any data on this, just a guess), then SWE salary should have that factored in, since they're providing more value. Just playing devil's advocate about your example, I don't have an opinion yet on your projection. I think wages will largely also depend on the continued growth of the software sector and inflation.

I think a lot of the existing SV salaries are there to hog all the talent from competitors. MS can't build a better Bing if Google hires all the search engine experts.

Nice try, but my price is extremely high and I’m not budging.

Good luck hiring.

There is no such thing as “what his work product is worth” since that is highly dependent on the industry, what problems are being solved etc.

I have a feeling that the opposite will be the case. SV used to be one of a very few place where most of the software happens. Now that's not the case anymore. If 10 years ago, some guys in Ukraine were happy with the outsourced tasks because the pay was so much higher, compared to what they could get locally, they also learned lots of tricks over those years. Some figured out sales, marketing, pitching to VCs and so on. People start coming up with solutions instead of doing some tasks on cheap. They create companies, drive the value high and salaries grow too. So I don't think SV salaries will change, but it's more likely that a lot of places outside SV will start paying more.

There's gonna be a strong demand for skilled software engineers.

WFH is something that could be a win/win for both parties.

Market forces will make companies benefit by offering remote jobs.