HN Explorer

Google+ will burst the tech bubble

28 points by dstein ↗ HN
We have seen the exact same scenario during the first tech bubble. The tech darling of the time, Netscape, had it's head torn off by the 800lb gorilla (Microsoft) and that marked the beginning of the end of the DotCom bubble.

This time around the flagship startup, Facebook, now has a credible threat from Google. The difference is Facebook isn't yet a publicly traded company. And I have a funny feeling the artificially inflated valuation of Facebook is just as quickly deflating right now. If Facebook's value starts declining before it goes public it could be trouble for just about every other startup that has not already gone public.

16 comments

[ 16.5 ms ] story [ 481 ms ] thread
neworbit
Arguably this drives up the values of everyone who is otherwise at Facebook's mercy though. Zynga on Google+ and Facebook is less subject to Zuckerberg "cutting off their air supply" - to repurpose a phrase from the 90s bubble.
citricsquid
IMO Facebook is not in any great danger from Google plus. Smaller start ups maybe, but Facebook has the not-tech-savvy market by the balls and google plus certainly isn't going to take them away. My brother, sister and father all use Facebook, none will be switching to google plus unless all their friends do, their friends won't switch unless their friends do... the Myspace/Facebook comparison doesn't work either, a large portion of Facebook users now didn't ever use Myspace, it's not as if they've moved away. Myspace was popular in the era where social networking was for teens and "nerds", Facebook rose to popularity when social networking was for everyone, google plus can't just waltz in and take all those users. Google plus is just another tech industry circle jerk, it'll be a long time before it ever comes close to harming Facebook (if it does). How many people are using google plus and not Facebook? That's what matters most. Everyone I know who uses google plus (which is a small group) is still using Facebook.
troymc
It's not like you have to choose Facebook xor Google+. You can use both.

For me, it's looking like I'll use Facebook to keep up with old schoolmates and relatives, and I'll use Google+ for keeping up with other circles (e.g. photographers and tech reporters).

TV didn't kill radio.

phyllotaxis
[Quote]TV didn't kill radio[\quote]

Nope, but the internet is. (i work in radio, BTW)

Can't happen soon enough, if you ask me.

joshmlewis
I agree. I was thinking about it and even if I wanted to use Google+ I couldn't just because there are so many people I have connections with that don't even realize it exists and they won't switch till there friends switch.
[dead] pyman
I think all of the complaints about Facebook policies have finally caught up with the company. Respecting your privacy is not about allowing users to create private groups or circles. It's about respect. When you sign up to a service offered by a company and accept its terms and conditions, you expect that company to respect those terms and conditions, but if those terms and those conditions keep changing all the time, people are going to be pissed off.

I noticed this with people who have looked at and reviewed Google+. They all make a comment about how the privacy settings are better or easier to access or less intrusive. This small factor is almost always mentioned, including in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-llwYjxv8Y

[deleted]
(comment deleted)
ugh
I have seen a big switch from one social network to another one before: from StudiVZ to Facebook.

StudiVZ is a very competent and very early (launched long before Facebook entered the German market) German Facebook clone, it has some nice features former StudiVZ and current Facebook users are still missing.

Everyone and everyone's friends were on StudiVZ. Now everyone is on Facebook (everyone is also still on StudiVZ but it's not really used). The transition happened gradually but all it took in my social cirlce were some people to try it out and invite everyone else. The action shifted gradually from StudiVZ to Facebook in the following months.

The same hasn't yet happened to Google+, at least in my social circle. (It also took Facebook a few months, I would comsequently not read much into that.) But it might very well. The StudiVZ story leads me to believe that switches from one social network to another aren't as impossible as it seems.

(Replacement is also only one of several scenarios. Co-existance is possible, I think.)

beatpanda
I don't know, all my friends already switched to Google+, and none of them are particularly tech savvy (outside of being young enough to have been raised with the Internet).
mmaunder
Upvoted because this is a great debate!

I think the circumstances are different in this case. Many people I know don't like Facebook or the idea of Facebook anymore, so Google may have a hard time persuading people Social Networks are still the new-new thing. In the case of Netscape, browser use was growing like crazy and still is 17 years later.

In a way Netscape helped tear it's own head off. There was the Netscape 6 nail in the coffin. The team rewrote the entire product from scratch. It's been oft quoted as an example of why not to do a rewrite. Facebook's engineering team appears to be strong on the surface.

There is no network effect with browsers and social networks have the strongest network effect of them all. So Google has to overcome that too.

Google does use second-mover advantage to great effect though, as MS has. Imitating is fun when you're a monopoly with a great engineering team. Companies they've taken ideas from:

Symbian

Nokia

Hotmail

Apple's App Store

iOS

MapQuest

Yahoo Finance

Altavista and all other search engines.

GoTo.com (first PPC ads)

az
Since gPlus has been integrated into the entire google experience, from gmail to blogspot, I think they have a chance against fb, but it will take a while.

Second, they have to make gPlus extremely easy to use to ensure that people will switch and stay with one product.

Third, gPlus has better video chat (multiple at a time I believe) than fb, so they have to encourage this as often as possible to keep users engaged and returning.

totalc
Netscape's death throes began in 1998. The 90s tech bubble finally collapsed in early 2000.

Assuming this year marks the beginning of Facebook's death throes and extrapolating from recent history: Until 2013, let the (tech startup) good times roll!

willheim
FB has but to do one thing to remain king of the heap and that is to maintain focus. The more junk they add to the site, the more ads, games, stupid apps (find out who's stalking you!) the uglier and more MySpace-like it becomes. FB succeeded in large part because it refused to be everything to everyone and become uglier. That said, the experience I get viewing my FB feed is aesthetically less pleasing as the months go on.

G+ OTOH is the new, shiny, clean kid on the block and my feeds are still pristine.

If FB continues on the path they are on the influential thought leaders who hate clutter will completely leave for G+ and that will be the beginning of the end of FB.

Would G clutter up G+ with junk? Not likely. They LOVE all that more detailed info you're voluntarily giving them that they can then serve up tailored (revenue-generating) ads on your Gmail, searches, partner sites, etc.

trungonnews
btw, Facebook Like button is way more popular than Google +1 button.

On my website, for every 1000 Facebook like button clicked, there is only one Google +1 button clicked.

proof: http://likehub.com/