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"earliest use found in Alvin Toffler (1928–2016)."

So is it she coined the phrase as it applies to coffee?

if you read the article it explicitly states she herself says she borrowed the term from her reading of feminism. so yes.
There is "Third Wave Feminism", so likely not Toffler. Toffler used "Third Wave" to refer to the transition from an industrial society to an information society.
Read 'third wave' and was not thinking about coffee! Sign of the times I guess...
based on the book "The Wave" I also wasn't thinking about coffee
I’m “into coffee” but not very knowledgeable about the history, so take this with a grain of salt.

But I wonder if “the fourth wave” is actually already here and it’s primarily differentiated by brewing cafe quality coffee at home.

It seems that pro-grade grinders and machines are now available at ever decreasing price points. And COVID led to more people than ever to get home machines and learn to make great espresso/filter brews.

A common complain lot at /r/espresso is that most of us are pulling better shots than at the local “third wave” cafes around us.

Sure, it requires expensive home equipment AND shipping in fresh beans from all over the world… and time… and those things are the rub.

The fourth wave is people with expensive equipment at home brewing with the best beans dropped shipped from all over the world. In other words - a rich persons hobby.

Again, I don’t know anything about this but from what I see it’s the exact opposite of what the people in the article WANT the 4th way to be.

How much of that is preference tho? When you make coffee for yourself it’s easier for it to be what you like.
> A common complain lot at /r/espresso is that most of us are pulling better shots than at the local “third wave” cafes around us.

I have mixed feelings about this. Cafés are businesses. The average person on the street isn't going to pay the premium for a consistently great shot, and there simply aren't enough people who care to support more than a small handful of shops that won't compromise on quality.

I know that I'm not pulling shots that are anywhere near as good as what a barista at one of the better cafés in my area can pull (and there are several who have placed highly in international competitions). However, I don't know if this translates over to what you get when you order something during the morning rush, and if the difference in quality in this situation is enough to justify the price.

> Sure, it requires expensive home equipment AND shipping in fresh beans from all over the world… and time… and those things are the rub.

$500 usd puts together a good setup if you stick with used equipment - espresso machine, grinder, and something like an old IMEX roaster. The beans in my experience are only slightly more expensive than what you can buy in a store, but the difference in quality is noticeable ($9 per kg vs ~$11-12 per kg).

"The fourth wave, if there is to be such a thing, won’t be confined to the cup. It will spill out, lifting the water mark for everyone around it."

I'm there. $500 usd for a Commandante C40 grinder, an aeropress, a v60 pour over, and an EKG electric kettle.

That's 4th wave Babae. I even get 20% off local roasters for bringing my own glassware vs taking their expensive environmentally friendly packaging.

I can get 1/2 lbs quality Ethiopian beans for $19-23cdn. With discount (20%), I'm lookin at $1.08-$1.31cdn per cup.

I'm lookin at $1.08-$1.31cdn per cup.

I pay $33cnd per lbs for a WDC 2019 3rd price. Using 25grams/liter filter, costs are ~$3.70cnd/liter. Not bad IMHO for a delicious cup.