Is police data the best source of data? The video in question suggests that people aren't even calling the police because they know they won't respond.
Better data, I think, would be from stores reporting loses due to theft but I'm sure that data is a lot more difficult to obtain.
> police officers said that shoplifters are getting more brazen, and that shoplifting incidents are likely underreported.
I don't get this article, it's like it was drafted in hopes that people just skim through it and look at the charts only. There is no real premise or conclusion, just posing a question for PR purposes.
“Data from the San Francisco Police Department suggests these reports may be overblown.”
Reporting theft to the police department is a waste of time since police will not pursue or investigate the petty theft. After spending much time filing reports with police, people realize that they are wasting their time, and they stop filing reports. As a result, the official police stats in places like San Francisco are completely unreliable.
Is there evidence that this is actually the case? Otherwise, this seems like there is no way for the stats to contradict a desired story:
If the numbers go up, it's a sign that crime is increasing. If the numbers go down, it's merely a sign that people have lost their faith in enforcement because of the overwhelming nature of the crime.
> After spending much time filing reports with police, people realize that they are wasting their time, and they stop filing reports.
People file reports for reasons beyond just expecting enforcement. For example: insurance companies often require a police report before they'll accept a claim for theft.
The problem is that the deductible on insurance claims makes it not worth filing, especially if it drives up your future premiums. I know lots of people who experience package thefts and bike thefts and car breakins who don’t bother reporting anything. It’s anecdotal, sure, but the logic checks out and where the anecdotal real life observations are so different from the claimed data (just look around you and see increased blight in west coast cities), something seems wrong with the data.
For one, Walgreens has shuttered a portion of their SF fleet due to increased theft and lack of enforcement. I would trust their inventory theft statistics much more than the police department’s, and so do they.
On the other hand, what evidence there that this effect is not more pronounced than it was in the past?
I would consider their statistics, but I don’t think they have released any — they have just made claims that Shoplifting has increased.
Have they released data showing that shrinkage has increased nationwide or in California, and that shrinkage has been driven by increases in shoplifting?
> On the other hand, what evidence there that this effect is not more pronounced than it was in the past?
The viability of your claim that petty crimes are less likely to be reported now than they were in the past depends on you producing evidence to support it. You haven't offered this, or even a hypothesis to explain why you think it might be true.
Again, I'm not debating that petty crimes are under-reported, but whether this phenomenon of under-reporting has increased over the past few decades to the point that police statistics are now "completely unreliable," as you put it. On a personal level, 20 years ago, I had something stolen from me in SF. I didn't report it, but I'd be just as likely not to report a similar theft now- no more, no less. What changed for Walgreens?
I think a much more reasonable explanation for the perceived surge in crime in the face of police data indicating the opposite is 1) Walgreens was one of the few retailers that remained open during the pandemic, thus raising their risk profile, and 2) there's a self-reinforcing effect of viral videos showing people getting away with brazen shoplifting at Walgreens.
One annoying trend I've noticed is CVS locking certain things behind glass or plexiglass cabinet doors. It's strange because it's not necessarily the most expensive things in the aisle - I assume it's just the things that people steal the most?
Another thing I've noticed is how so many items are out of stock on the shelf. I assume pandemic-related supply issues are the main culprit, but perhaps theft is another reason.
These "human-powered vending machines" are going to cost Walgreens and CVS in the long run. Customers may try to buy an item once, flagging down an employee, waiting while they unlock the cabinet, etc., but the next time many will just plan ahead and order from Amazon.
Oos is shoplifting for sure. The cvs and Walgreens were out of stock or poorly stocked way before the pandemic and I constantly see people filling out of the instant checkout line while in wait outside with the dog for my partner to pay
I've seen it personally. Totally brazen, no attempt to hide it. Two teenage girls, one had clearly done it before, the other had not and was nervous. They just openly loaded up their bags, walked out the front door and got on the bus. The clerks have apparently been instructed not to intervene. The guy at the counter didn't bat an eye. I'd go so far as to say "studiously ignored them". This was at CVS on Mission and 30th. Shoplifting has been around forever, but I've never seen it like this. It looked exactly like the video. I walked out after them. The girl who was nervous thought they were getting busted. The one who had done it before walked with the confidence of someone who knows nobody is coming after her.
That being said most people wait in line and pay for their purchases like civilized folk. I'm happy to pay, but when the line is long I get frustrated that those girls don't have to follow the rules like everyone else does.
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[ 2.6 ms ] story [ 34.9 ms ] threadBetter data, I think, would be from stores reporting loses due to theft but I'm sure that data is a lot more difficult to obtain.
> police officers said that shoplifters are getting more brazen, and that shoplifting incidents are likely underreported.
I don't get this article, it's like it was drafted in hopes that people just skim through it and look at the charts only. There is no real premise or conclusion, just posing a question for PR purposes.
Reporting theft to the police department is a waste of time since police will not pursue or investigate the petty theft. After spending much time filing reports with police, people realize that they are wasting their time, and they stop filing reports. As a result, the official police stats in places like San Francisco are completely unreliable.
If the numbers go up, it's a sign that crime is increasing. If the numbers go down, it's merely a sign that people have lost their faith in enforcement because of the overwhelming nature of the crime.
> After spending much time filing reports with police, people realize that they are wasting their time, and they stop filing reports.
People file reports for reasons beyond just expecting enforcement. For example: insurance companies often require a police report before they'll accept a claim for theft.
On the other hand, what evidence there that this effect is not more pronounced than it was in the past?
I would consider their statistics, but I don’t think they have released any — they have just made claims that Shoplifting has increased.
Have they released data showing that shrinkage has increased nationwide or in California, and that shrinkage has been driven by increases in shoplifting?
The viability of your claim that petty crimes are less likely to be reported now than they were in the past depends on you producing evidence to support it. You haven't offered this, or even a hypothesis to explain why you think it might be true.
Again, I'm not debating that petty crimes are under-reported, but whether this phenomenon of under-reporting has increased over the past few decades to the point that police statistics are now "completely unreliable," as you put it. On a personal level, 20 years ago, I had something stolen from me in SF. I didn't report it, but I'd be just as likely not to report a similar theft now- no more, no less. What changed for Walgreens?
I think a much more reasonable explanation for the perceived surge in crime in the face of police data indicating the opposite is 1) Walgreens was one of the few retailers that remained open during the pandemic, thus raising their risk profile, and 2) there's a self-reinforcing effect of viral videos showing people getting away with brazen shoplifting at Walgreens.
Another thing I've noticed is how so many items are out of stock on the shelf. I assume pandemic-related supply issues are the main culprit, but perhaps theft is another reason.
That being said most people wait in line and pay for their purchases like civilized folk. I'm happy to pay, but when the line is long I get frustrated that those girls don't have to follow the rules like everyone else does.