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Tech companies probably won't return to offices in September

16 points by rreichman ↗ HN
Many tech companies (Google, Facebook, Apple, Uber, etc) have set early September as the time in which employees will be required to return to the office. In a world before the delta variant it seemed plausible that vaccination alone could allow everyone to return to office. But looking at the data coming out of Israel, UK, and the EU, as well as variant data in the US, we can assume that COVID-19 cases are going to significantly increase in the US in the upcoming weeks, followed by increased hospitalizations (albeit at a lower rate than pre-vaccination). Tech companies could still decide to force employees back into the office but outside of Apple I find it hard to believe that they'll force everyone to come back in the midst of an outbreak, which now seems inevitable.

9 comments

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idoh
What’s your prediction around schools? Vaccination rates are much lower, many kids aren’t eligible for vaccines, and it is a bit of a hot house environment with lots of children packed into a small area. So does school return too? Just curious what the thinking is here.
thorin
What happens in schools in the US? I had the idea that in California schools are partially open, but in other places like Texas they are now fully open.

In the UK schools have been fully open since Feb, except that bubble in schools have to isolate for 10 days if they have close contact with someone with the virus, which is pretty frustrating. This is expected to change again in August to be less restrictive, ready for school opening in September.

toast0
Right now, most US schools are on the regularly scheduled summer break. Full opening guidance came pretty late in the school year, so many districts finished based in where they were in early 2021.

Starting dates vary, but generally schools will start their new school year in early September. That's when we'll really see what happens. But I'd expect most school districts to be doing full time in-person learning based on US CDC recommendations; many districts will likely make an optional online program available, but I doubt there will be many districts doing widespread online only or hybrids like we saw in the 2020-2021 school year.

atsushin
I just started a new role and I really hope I don't have to commute to the office. WFH and gaining back time otherwise spent on commuting has been a blessing.
VirusNewbie
According to the latest data, the Pfizer vaccine that Isreal used is 99.3% effective at preventing hospitalizations, compared to 99.6% for the other strains it was originally tested against.

Given that the vaccine seems to turn the delta variant from a potentially serious, sometimes fatal disease, to a mild annoyance, I would think that plans could proceed as normal.

At a certain point, when Covid ( delta variant or not) becomes less dangerous than the Flu or Rhinovirus, it may not make sense to worry about.

Tagbert
That assumed COVID surge will likely not be evenly distributed nationally. The situation will depend on local vaccination rates. Here in Seattle, where the tech companies are planning to open offices, the vaccination rate is high and the risk of infection is low. That kind of correlation between tech company offices and high vaccination rate likely applies in most other tech hotspots. Our company does have smaller offices in other states where the vaccination rate is not so good and they may watch the local risk as they decide to open the offices.
decafninja
I just accepted an offer. My current/old company is planning a September return. Supposedly the unvaccinated employees will be put together on separate floors and be mandated to get tested at least twice a week. However less than half of the employees have volunteered their vaccinated status, according to latest reports.

My new employer is already back in the office as of June. According to the hiring manager though, at least 95% of the employees have been vaccinated, but those that haven't are also being subjected to the twice-a-week mandatory testing.

giantg2
The data I saw still showed 90%+ protection from hospitalization and death and 65-80%+ protection from symptoms for the delta strain.

I don't really think this changes anything.