These type of articles are really annoying. Obviously the world is overpopulated already. Any decline is a great thing but these articles always make it out to be a dangerous thing.
Has anyone ever considered that the replacement rate of 2.1 should be becoming lower with longer lifespans too? Or if it refers to working population, probably becoming bigger.
I've seen this figure quoted for two decades at least, and I can't imagine it staying constant with all the other changes.
Not to mention a clear move towards childbearing at older age, which skews the stats for a while, and also reduces number of children because it's that much harder for mothers to conceive with every passing year.
I think demographical models in use are in serious need of updating to be taken seriously.
"One child per woman" would quickly drop the world's population to a level which is sustainable more or less indefinitely.
That population level is a lot lower than today's - probably between 1 and two billion.
The only reason humanity has got away with huge population growth so far is that we're drawing heavily on tomorrow's resources today. Those resources won't be there tomorrow.
If you thought that WW2 was horrific, tomorrow's resources wars will be wholesale genocide. And what makes you think you (or your kids) will be on the winning side?
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[ 3.7 ms ] story [ 24.2 ms ] threadEarth can happily provide for even more people if done responsibly, but that's pretty hard and costly today. Hopefully we figure it out soon.
I've seen this figure quoted for two decades at least, and I can't imagine it staying constant with all the other changes.
Not to mention a clear move towards childbearing at older age, which skews the stats for a while, and also reduces number of children because it's that much harder for mothers to conceive with every passing year.
I think demographical models in use are in serious need of updating to be taken seriously.
That population level is a lot lower than today's - probably between 1 and two billion.
The only reason humanity has got away with huge population growth so far is that we're drawing heavily on tomorrow's resources today. Those resources won't be there tomorrow.
If you thought that WW2 was horrific, tomorrow's resources wars will be wholesale genocide. And what makes you think you (or your kids) will be on the winning side?