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> Whewell pointed out that humans, according to the geological record then being unearthed, had been present on this planet for only an “atom of time.”

By Bayesian logic, this says ominous things about the expected value of how long humanity will remain on the planet...

The universe is so vast; you can't confidently say that we are the only ones living here. Maybe we're not up to a point in time in which we can explore the worlds outside of the Earth, especially we don't have the equipment to last long and withstand extreme temperatures of other planets. There is so much out there, it may not be in our time, but there will be a big chance our future generations can truly meet and interact with extraterrestrials.
Maybe. Things are still very far apart relative to our current lifespan.

We might be 1,000 years or more away from fully colonizing our own solar system before it’s worth a long, dangerous journey to another star.

Due to time dilation, the journey might not be that long.
But reporting back to your home world would be almost irrelevant since thousands of years would have passed there, right?
Everyone always thinks along the lines of current biological limitations when talking about space travel while ignoring the huge advances that are being made in biotechnology. Given another 100 years I think we’ll be pretty good at customizing our biology to suit our needs. Hell, we probably have the required technical ability right now, we just lack the theoretical understanding.
Technically we can confidently say we're the only ones living here, because we've defined the word "life" and what it means.

And we tend to define life in a very terrestrially and DNA-specific way, despite we don't mention it explicitly.

My favorite are the pointless arguments about whether viruses are alive or not. As if "it's alive" is some objective property of a thing. It's not. It's a word we made up.

Maybe the Moon is conscious for all we know. We know almost nothing.

As for effective communication and interaction with aliens, it'll most likely require cybernetics and genetic engineering.

The idea humans will colonize the universe is very naive. We're Earthlings. We're extremely fragile outside very specific conditions on this very specific planet. To live successfully outside we'll have to change a lot.

Sure, technically whatever that ends up being we can still call "humans" but it won't look like humans do right now, that's for sure.

I don't know which definition of life you go by, but most of them seems to be pretty lenient. Not sure how you can be confident about earthlings being the only ones living up to those (pun intended).
It's easy.

If aliens turn up, everyone will be too busy worrying about aliens to care about some prediction being wrong.

Maybe you can tell me which definition of life you go by that's "lenient".

What I see is bunch of arbitrary capabilities, that we decided sum up to being life.

"the condition that distinguishes animals and plants from inorganic matter, including the capacity for growth, reproduction, functional activity, and continual change preceding death."

Technically if we decide to INTERPET this leniently, then phenomena like crystals and fire would qualify as life. So would viruses.

Yet, it also says "the condition that distinguishes from inorganic matter", and those are not "organic matter".

And what is organic matter? Well... that happens to be defined as carbon-based DNA/RNA coded proteins. That's QUITE specific to earthlings.

Nice one !

Consider also reading about the Fermi Paradox : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

It really makes me dizzy every time I take some time to wonder about it...

Your description makes me wonder if you more so meant Drake's equation.

But, either way, both are awesome and related. My intro was a discussion panel Seti did in the early 2000's - ~'where is ET?'

The conclusion at the time was effectively that the ticket to earth was way too expensive.

Funny that our ideas of aliens run a similar trajectory to our own technology.

Pre-flight, some were convinced that Martians were building canals or Mars, right as canals were being built to facilitate shipping, the prominent technology of the day.

Now, some are convinced that aliens are sending small crafts and probes to study our planet, right as we’re sending small crafts and probes to study other planets.

And before modern technology, mythological creatures were human-like or animal-like, which was the pinnacle of intelligence in our pre-tech world.

A drunk guy was stumbling about looking for something under a lamppost.

A friendly gentleman asked what the drunk was looking for. “My keys”.

The gentleman replied “and did you loose them under this lamppost?”

“No, but that’s where the light is”

This is such a cool insight - did you come up with it? It's totally worth writing up into a blog post or something.
It's pretty much the present background tale to the UFO/UAP scenarios:

That every mythology, magical treatise, and religious, occult, or otherwise spiritual experience, UFO experience, etc, are all aspects of reality tuned to the capabilities of our perceptions.

The running theory being that they're all the same thing, but rather incorporeal—based on yet-unknown physical principles involving consciousness or the larger reality we reside in and either manifesting from our own consciousness or another consciousness outside of material reality.

Of course, such a theory—while fantastical and exciting—is a pretty clever catch-all.

Catch up on any modern UFO reading and that's where it all points. And probably fairly, given the kinds of endeavours various defence agencies and their investigations. I think it also follows Jacques Vallée's theories, but I haven't actually read any of his books or papers. I'm intrigued, but not enough to wade too deeply.

There are blog posts and online-forum-wiz expoundings galore.

Dude are you saying what comes out of the mind, of say a H. R. Giger, and the rest of the chimp troupe have overlap because they share the same hardware?
No idea what you're saying. Who is "the chimp troupe"?
Or perhaps it's just in our nature to see agency in the unknown. The form it takes just reflects our cultural expectations and world view du jour.
I don't know any better than you. I'm just reporting that OP's notions are already the core thread of some UFOlogists of the past ~40-50 years (and beyond).

The idea that it is all essentially a projection/emanations from a singular core consciousness (a la gnosticism or neoplatonism) is not unexplored, nor contradictory to your own statement.

That's why it's clever; as a theory it can virtually explain anything. It just requires a level of faith on par with any other belief system.

I’m sure I picked it up somewhere before in various forms, I just can’t remember where. But I can’t claim credit for it.
We also see many cultures have something like a "trickster god" in their pantheon. For example Loki in Norse mythology or Coyote in some Native American traditions. Perhaps the purported alien visitors are just modernized versions of that archetype.
Or maybe the premoderns were correct that there are trickster gods, and we have been tricked (!) into believing in aliens instead.
Do people still make claims about alien abduction? Or has that been made extinct by the ubiquity of smartphones?
If the aliens can travel across space and kidnap people, surely they can figure out how to disable a smartphone for a few seconds.
I don't understand what smartphones have to do with alien abduction.
Basically, the prevalence of smartphones means we can record pretty much anything at anytime. Therefore, if abductions happen with any regularity, surely at least one would be captured on camera.
Hell...you don't even need to snap a photo. Just take a look at your GPS or cell triangulation data for the time you think you may have been abducted.
As the quality and the number of cameras radically increased in the last decades, the quality and the number of UFO videos didn't increase.

The only exception I saw were the videos released by the government agencies, they are actually interesting.

My understanding of that statement is that, with the advent of ubiquitous smart phones with cameras, there's not much room to believe someone's claim of alien abduction these days. If they have no picture or video to prove it then it's likely not true. Sure, some people may get abducted without their phone, but the possibility of no one ever having a phone to record such an event is statistically improbable.

So, with too few people able to suspend belief and buy into claims of alien abduction without proof from their phone, no one really makes that claim anymore.

Maybe that's not what the GP was getting at but that's how I read it...

Yes, exactly. Fundamentally it's a way to attract attention. If the claim is getting less attention, you would expect it to die out.
Apparently we touched someone's nerve - why we are being downvoted is beyond my comprehension. Guess we weren't serious 'nuff for the HN crowd. As I said in a comment a few days ago, sometimes I really miss /.
We've had HD cameras and excellent optical glass for a long time, and yet blips on poor quality video are abound. Anything high def is (in my experience) always CGI.
I liked that plot point in Girl Ghostbusters: they post their videos of ghosts to YouTube and the comments section says "FAAAKKKEEEE."
Every time I try to get a good picture of an eagle with my iPhone it turns out blurry and that’s in the daytime with them flying slowly overhead. It’s been a while since I tried the same with a plane but I imagine the results are similar. I don’t think the “cameras are so good now all blurry photos must be fake” argument holds water.
I still think there's room on (and in) this planet for life we don't recognize as such yet. Human ignorance is boundless, but our arrogance tells us we know more than we do.
I'm on board with this.

If we had the technology for it, I would no longer be humanoid. In fact, I'd treat it as an artistic venture to become something completely unbefore seen. And perhaps change with some frequency, just for kicks.

Ultraterrestrials would be interesting but they’d also need a really good reason for hiding. Now, if they no longer live here but are just coming back for a visit…
The idea that alien lifeforms we could recognize are visiting us and traveling in space is utterly ludicrous. On the cosmic scale, we are the same thing and same size as an ant. No cosmically connected society would even think of talking to us.

That's because, I believe, cosmically connected societies are, essentially, floating planet sized brains. Their living beings are basically the cells of this organism, and networks of roads, data lines and such are the connective tissue linking the neurons that exist as beings of that planet.

At some point in our future, we'll all be a unified race of people working towards not only the betterment of the planet, but towards the ability for this giant floating spherical brain to reach out to other giant floating spherical brains using methods of communication that can only exist at the planetary scale.

By that time, humanity will be unrecognizable for us. People would be as different from normal folks now as those on the autistic spectrum are. We're evolving, the planet is evolving, and on the cosmic scale, it's the only logical explanation for why the universe seems empty: it's not that there aren't other civilizations, it's that they're essentially so different in scale from us when they reach the galactic phase of growth that we will not be able to tell the difference from a planet-sized brain and a regular planet.

Additionally, the size of the cosmos hammers home the idea that ant-sized being such as ourselves hoping to navigate the universe is simply silly and we shouldn't be much concerned beyond our solar system for a good million years or so.

We can pick this UFO thing back up when we're all one unified peoples across the globe with a single purpose. I will additionally bet that there's about a 99% chance that such a society would be ruled by computer overlords. I'd be OK with that, actually, as we've REALLY fucked things up using people as leaders, recently. I cannot imagine saying that 20 years ago, but here we are.

This will all probably start to happen in earnest (these changes to humanity, I mean) sometime after we install dictators to deal with the climate change problems which we allowed to get utterly out of control to a point where the only solution will be utter dictatorships and violence and instant death for anyone who damages the planet. It'll REALLY suck, but we will hopefully come out the other side with fewer opportunities for greedy people to direct entire civilizations to memorialize their greatness in blood.

>No cosmically connected society would even think of talking to us.

I am pretty sure scientists do research that involves laying down and pheromone trails. So, to the extent ants can talk, we have interest in talking to ants. You're making the unfounded assumption that aliens would treat humans like a small and unrepresentative sample (Victorian nobility?) of humans treat other humans.

Although there are many anthills we don't talk to, that is because each anthill of the same species would say the same thing. There is only one human anthill, so that objection does not apply.

Is that talking to ants, or is that running experiments on them? Because those are two VERY different things. Additionally, talking to an alien race the size of a planet, is probably like speaking Ent: a human's lifespan is likely not long enough to hear an entire phrase of communication, because at the planet scale, shit moves a lot slower, or rather, it should, the way life moves. Hummingbirds move and react way faster than elephants.
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> Is that talking to ants, or is that running experiments on them?

Do you think we wouldn't be trying to actually communicate with ants if we found a viable way of doing so?

I don't think we'd set up an embassy with the ants and sign trade agreements with them...
If that's absurd it's only because ant's cant talk, or comprehend trade agreements, which people can.
And whatever a cosmic civilization would want us to comprehend, we likely could not, in a similar fashion.
What are you basing that likelihood on?
I like your ideas, but they are no less ludicrous. Based on your reasoning, Jane Goodall would never have attempted communication with gorillas nor would her work be of interest to societies of research.
Effectively, we're the same as gorillas and ants on the cosmic scale, so this is not a good analogy. Humans communicating with amoeba would be a better one. But even so, we're not establishing diplomatic embassies and trade agreements with ants and gorillas. People keep thinking that just because we study ants and gorillas, that means my argument is spurious.

Alien races that see us may find us intriguing, but Douglas Adams did explain this sort of stuff in fantastic ways, for example, when humanity missed the Dolphins' last message to Earth and interpreted it as a really neat triple somersault.

So, yes, maybe gorillas and ants and dolphins are trying to speak with us, but we're not trying to have those conversations. We're having the "Do you want a banana?" conversations.

What people think of when they think of UFOs is diplomatic relations between two cultures. And I am saying that, cosmically, we could no less have a diplomatic relationship between a human society and a cosmically traveling giant brain society than could a person establish diplomatic ties with an oyster. The frames of reference are simply not there to even communicate in a meaningful, cultural way beyond Pearls.

So, maybe I am wrong and the giant brains are reaching out and do want to talk to us, but maybe they speak with asteroids and quarks and we cannot even begin to understand what they want. We're too busy deciding which ant is the correct, one true ant to lead us all.

But how do you know for sure that the Earth isn’t just a floating brain? Mycology suggests that there are neural networks within forests, and the vast variety of species act in a sort of symbiotic equilibrium. Perhaps human consciousness and the creation of the internet was the final step in connecting the circuit.

I would say that planet earth resembles a living brain far more than it resembles a stagnant rock.

Definitely agree. Humanity becoming an ingrained part of that living brain would exemplify a giant step forward in evolution for us, and growth for the brain. A maturation.
But what is the output of this earth brain? Outwardly it appears, to us at least, that there is zero affect to observe and so we'd have to assume this brain is locked in or at least completely indecipherable to us.
I mean the obvious answer is the radio waves that leave our planet are an observable affect.
Radio waves are simply electromagnetic radiation, this is ubiquitous throughout the universe. Nothing special about the earth being formed in a particular brain-like way and the radio radiation emanating from earth itself is as random as the radiation emanating from the sun.
A human brain doesn't just stop operation if it lacks the physical appendages to interact with an exterior environment.

I can only imagine, if such a posited earth-brain exists, that its entire functioning would be to continue functioning while it reflects upon its own existence and trying to understand its environment with what information it gathers.

And if we're a part of that earth-brain then our effects are its effects.

I wonder how a psychologist might diagnose such an earth-brain in its present condition... anxious, self-destructive, but not without redeeming qualities, and trying to reach out for connection just the same...

By your reasoning we could describe the entirety of everything as a brain. It's just brains all the way. Can any meaning be extracted from that, at all? Seems to me semantics and language are really just illusions of meaning.
Isn't that kind of what's described in physics? It's forces interacting all the way down.
Any sci-fi idea about what extra terrestrial life would look like is as good as the next. All of them involve speculation from almost no data.

If I had to bet though, I’d say that alien life is even more diverse than life on earth since it would necessarily involve multiple origins both natural and artificial.

The Soviet Union was an attempt at creating a Zerg like hive mind with a centralized “brain” in Moscow.

Didn’t work out, but with today’s technology it might be more possible.

You know who is interested in ants - other ants.
Humans also know a lot about ants. Even kids keep ant farms because ants are thoroughly interesting.
> The idea that alien lifeforms we could recognize are visiting us and traveling in space is utterly ludicrous [...]

> I believe

There are a whoooooooole lot of assumptions being made here that don't seem to based in any kind of physical reality

We can pick this UFO thing back up when we're all one unified peoples across Germany with a single purpose. I will additionally bet that there's about a 99% chance that such a society would be ruled by a military man. I'd be OK with that, actually, as we've REALLY fucked things up using common politicians as leaders, recently. I cannot imagine saying that 20 years ago, but here we are.

This will all probably start to happen in earnest (these changes to Germany, I mean) sometime after we install a dictator to deal with the economic and foreign relations problems which we allowed to get utterly out of control to a point where the only solution will be utter dictatorship and violence and instant death for anyone who damages Germany. It'll REALLY suck, but we will hopefully come out the other side with fewer opportunities for greedy people to direct entire civilizations to memorialize their greatness in blood.

I mean, yeah. This is not something I WANT to happen. Just, it's probably going to happen, and honestly, it'll probably worse than Nazi Germany. I'm not trying to be some kind of Gaia-theory genocidal advocate. Just a realist who's starting to see that humanity is NOT solving the climate crisis in a manner that involves consensus, agreement, and cooperation. We sincerely suck at those things recently.
I think the prevalence of alien abduction testimony says something meaningful about the reliability of human testimony.

Don't trust everything you hear.

The 12th episode of Sagan's Cosmos, "Encyclopaedia Galactica", is a classic on this topic.
I like when people drop assertions about aliens to win some rhetorical debate. "Well of course science is real because an alien would also discover the Charm quark." "To a Martian observer, there's no difference between Catholic and Protestant Irish." etc. My dude, we have no evidence that there are aliens, but you're just going to assert that they agree with whatever it is you already think! And yet people don't just laugh it off for the silly move that is.
It is so interesting how all the different cultures had different intepretations of the Cosmos, all being mythologically impressive on their own. Probably a result of curiosity and imagination coupled with lots of free time. Still, really amazing.