"We know very clearly with coronavirus that this current variant, the Delta variant, will still infect people who have been vaccinated and that does mean that anyone who's still unvaccinated, at some point, will meet the virus,"
"I think we are in a situation here with this current variant where herd immunity is not a possibility because it still infects vaccinated individuals."
"Israel’s Covid infections surge as government rolls out booster shots"
Young people get over it pretty fast and mostly without issues, especially vaccinated ones. In slovenia, we've been closing down schools, and letting people get infected and die in old-age homes, instead of keeping schools open (atleast partially) and doing more to protect the people who actually need protection (like ventilation, better isolation, etc.)
We've had around 4400 deaths by now (2 mio population) with some estimates of 800k+ people having it (260k confirmed cases), and we've had 5 deaths in <35yo age group, and we count every death after 28days of positive test as a covid death.
> Will it reinfect persons who has already been infected?
At present time, a number of studies show that reinfection in people with naturally acquired immunity is relatively rare (see supporting excerpts below).
That said, the delta variant (and most other variants of concern) have mutations that confer partial immune escape . We can expect that such variants will pose an increasing risk to both the vaccinated & naturally immune. [5][6][7]
The virus can mutate faster than the scientific literature can establish consensus - I suppose we'll be facing a degree of uncertainly for a while to come.
> "A previous history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an 84% lower risk of infection, with median protective effect observed 7 months following primary infection. This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals." [1]
> "Reinfection is rare in the young and international population of Qatar. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy ~95% for at least seven months." [2]
> "To our knowledge, this is the first systematic review to synthesise the evidence on the risk of SARS‐CoV‐2 reinfection over time. [...] Reinfection was an uncommon event (absolute rate 0%–1.1%), with no study reporting an increase in the risk of reinfection over time. [...] These data suggest that naturally acquired SARS‐CoV‐2 immunity does not wane for at least 10 months post‐infection. However, the applicability of these studies to new variants or to vaccine‐induced immunity remains uncertain." [3]
> "Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was examined among 52238 employees in an American healthcare system. COVID-19 did not occur in anyone over the five months of the study among 2579 individuals previously infected with COVID-19, including 1359 who did not take the vaccine. [...] Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination, and vaccines can be safely prioritized to those who have not been infected before." [4]
[1] SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040523/
Yes, 'nothing'. We are all going to get this virus eventually, with or without vaccines.
And, no. The virus would have killed mostly retired, sick people, initially creating a burden on health systems, then releasing a fair amount of inheritance to younger heirs, and lightening the burden on health systems by creating relatively younger, healthier populations
This virus would have benefited us as a whole, if we hadn't interfered, just as a deer population does better with natural predators around.
But we think we can live forever, and we think we can outsmart nature. Nothing new there.
This is not a direct critique (i.e. I am not saying that you're wrong), but this line of thinking is rather unpopular these days, and possibly with good reason: it can easily conflate into eugenetics and many of the problems we already faced in 20th century.
Unfortunately social dynamics are a complexity layer on top of the already complicated layer of nature itself. We all are after-all moist machines with a brain (and these 2 things have very complex and convoluted feed-back loops)
The last line is actually wrong in my opinion, we did outsmart nature in many senses: we can fly, go underwater, stop bacterial infections that would have killed us, became de-facto apex predators, despite we are rather weak animals... therefore depending on how you keep the score, I'd say that we are actually winning against nature.
You’re mostly right, however there does seem to be some sense in using hospitals move towards full capacity as a trigger to require masks, lockdown, etc.
"Sir Andrew said the next thing might be "a variant which is even better at transmitting in vaccinated populations", adding: "So, that's even more of a reason not to be making a vaccine programme around herd immunity.""
I am starting to see more vaccine mandates come out which is contrary to a lot of these experts believe. There is so much you can do and message to reduce covid symptoms at home by yourself but they still strongly believe vaccine is the only way. I'd love to see hospital capacity which since the onset of the pandemic is to not overwhelm the healthcare system. I'd love to see more historical stats because I know a lot of people get admitted with a bad flu (pneumonia etc).
15 comments
[ 0.15 ms ] story [ 153 ms ] thread"I think we are in a situation here with this current variant where herd immunity is not a possibility because it still infects vaccinated individuals."
"Israel’s Covid infections surge as government rolls out booster shots"
https://archive.is/OpkMd
"Delta outbreak piles pressure on China’s homegrown vaccines"
https://archive.is/CSLiX
Young people get over it pretty fast and mostly without issues, especially vaccinated ones. In slovenia, we've been closing down schools, and letting people get infected and die in old-age homes, instead of keeping schools open (atleast partially) and doing more to protect the people who actually need protection (like ventilation, better isolation, etc.)
We've had around 4400 deaths by now (2 mio population) with some estimates of 800k+ people having it (260k confirmed cases), and we've had 5 deaths in <35yo age group, and we count every death after 28days of positive test as a covid death.
if((now()-positivetestdate())<28days && person==dead) { coviddeaths++; }
Also suicide (our media has been told to 'carefully' report about suicide, and we still don't have the 2020 suicide statistics available).
At present time, a number of studies show that reinfection in people with naturally acquired immunity is relatively rare (see supporting excerpts below).
That said, the delta variant (and most other variants of concern) have mutations that confer partial immune escape . We can expect that such variants will pose an increasing risk to both the vaccinated & naturally immune. [5][6][7]
The virus can mutate faster than the scientific literature can establish consensus - I suppose we'll be facing a degree of uncertainly for a while to come.
> "A previous history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an 84% lower risk of infection, with median protective effect observed 7 months following primary infection. This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals." [1]
> "Reinfection is rare in the young and international population of Qatar. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy ~95% for at least seven months." [2]
> "To our knowledge, this is the first systematic review to synthesise the evidence on the risk of SARS‐CoV‐2 reinfection over time. [...] Reinfection was an uncommon event (absolute rate 0%–1.1%), with no study reporting an increase in the risk of reinfection over time. [...] These data suggest that naturally acquired SARS‐CoV‐2 immunity does not wane for at least 10 months post‐infection. However, the applicability of these studies to new variants or to vaccine‐induced immunity remains uncertain." [3]
> "Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was examined among 52238 employees in an American healthcare system. COVID-19 did not occur in anyone over the five months of the study among 2579 individuals previously infected with COVID-19, including 1359 who did not take the vaccine. [...] Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination, and vaccines can be safely prioritized to those who have not been infected before." [4]
[1] SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040523/
[2] SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positivity protects against reinfection for at least seven months with 95% efficacy https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33937733/
[3] Quantifying the risk of SARS‐CoV‐2 reinfection over time https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8209951/
[4] Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v...
[5] SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion by the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant of concern https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/30/scie...
[6] mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03324-6
[7] Reduced sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta to antibody neutralization [deleted] ↗ (comment deleted) belter ↗ "Iceland Covid-19 outbreak: Cases spike in world’s most vaccinated country"
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/iceland-dea...
https://drive.google.com/file/d/18W8zgNSigsZVQE7sSDOd4VvD5UJ...
So we've had almost two years of business and social destruction for nothing.
We will all get this virus and let's just hope a variant that evolves to escape vaccine induced immunity doesn't also become much more dangerous.
Also, the global pandemic would have done lots of business and social destruction regardless of what path government responses took.
And, no. The virus would have killed mostly retired, sick people, initially creating a burden on health systems, then releasing a fair amount of inheritance to younger heirs, and lightening the burden on health systems by creating relatively younger, healthier populations
This virus would have benefited us as a whole, if we hadn't interfered, just as a deer population does better with natural predators around.
But we think we can live forever, and we think we can outsmart nature. Nothing new there.
Unfortunately social dynamics are a complexity layer on top of the already complicated layer of nature itself. We all are after-all moist machines with a brain (and these 2 things have very complex and convoluted feed-back loops)
The last line is actually wrong in my opinion, we did outsmart nature in many senses: we can fly, go underwater, stop bacterial infections that would have killed us, became de-facto apex predators, despite we are rather weak animals... therefore depending on how you keep the score, I'd say that we are actually winning against nature.
I am starting to see more vaccine mandates come out which is contrary to a lot of these experts believe. There is so much you can do and message to reduce covid symptoms at home by yourself but they still strongly believe vaccine is the only way. I'd love to see hospital capacity which since the onset of the pandemic is to not overwhelm the healthcare system. I'd love to see more historical stats because I know a lot of people get admitted with a bad flu (pneumonia etc).
https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm...