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Reddit has become cancer, and HN is far from that, but very slowly following the same route?
Different audiences feel differently about things
Exactly, why would we expect the same results?
This is as dumb as expecting Cradle of Filth fans to get into Miles Davis.
The claim in the tweet that its a first voter effect seems inconsistent with my experience of HN comment early moderation in either direction frequently gets most neutralized, entirely neutralized, or reversed.

There may be a strong first-voter effect on Reddit, but that's not whatt happening on HN.

In general, I don't know that “the same post gets different responses from different audiences” needs first-voter effects to explain.

it might matter for ranking top in large threads, I'd agree but not so much for what ends up negative or positive.

Early voting matters much more for what ends up on the front page.