"...rate of myocarditis after two shots of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to be 162.2 cases per million for healthy boys aged 12 to 15 and 94 cases per million for healthy boys aged 16 to 17. Equivalent rates for girls were 13.4 and 13 cases per million, respectively. At current US infection rates, the risk of a healthy adolescent being taken to hospital with Covid in the next 120 days is about 44 per million"
Ignoring risks beyond 120 days seems optimistic. I suspect most people are at higher risk from vaccines than the disease they prevent over the next day, but that’s hardly a useful comparison. Vaccine risks are front loaded where disease risks persist.
Risks beyond 120 days are not ignored. They are accepted, and monitored for. That 120 day risk is not the amount being tracked. It's just one time period used to communicate the amount of risk.
Covid vaccines have been monitored over 1.5 years already.
We know the long term risk for virus vaccination exist. But they are different from short term risks. Some people get autoimmune diseases just from normal annual flu shots. As long as the risk is far below the benefits, it's completely acceptable.
Current models suggest ~90% of people are getting some variant of COVID and or vaccinated. So, long term risks are reasonably calculated as vaccine risks + COVID exposure vs the risk of someone getting COVID without vaccination not simply a 120 day window of risk.
If the vaccine was significantly more risky then that would still be the case either way, however many assumptions are baked into that 120 day window.
VAERS seems somewhat tricky to use, but a quick search showed 232 myocarditis reports among males ages 6-17 in the US. This is likely to be some small fraction of the true number.
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[ 4.1 ms ] story [ 20.4 ms ] thread"...rate of myocarditis after two shots of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to be 162.2 cases per million for healthy boys aged 12 to 15 and 94 cases per million for healthy boys aged 16 to 17. Equivalent rates for girls were 13.4 and 13 cases per million, respectively. At current US infection rates, the risk of a healthy adolescent being taken to hospital with Covid in the next 120 days is about 44 per million"
Covid vaccines have been monitored over 1.5 years already.
We know the long term risk for virus vaccination exist. But they are different from short term risks. Some people get autoimmune diseases just from normal annual flu shots. As long as the risk is far below the benefits, it's completely acceptable.
If the vaccine was significantly more risky then that would still be the case either way, however many assumptions are baked into that 120 day window.