I edited the title somewhat to take the focus off party politics and put it on what I think is interesting to HN readers: a website making statistical claims about the result of an election that hasn't been counted yet (poll close tomorrow evening).
This is the website in question, asserting that Benford's law shows evidence of fraud in the election results: https://stopcafraud.com/
The website you linked doesn't even list any evidence supporting its claim that "statistical patterns of voting fraud can be detected", not to mention the "easily reproducible" part. It only has a single page, claiming that there is fraud and asking users to fill forms.
Perhaps the supporting evidence was stolen at the same time as the election. Time travel is rife with such paradoxes.
Seriously though, the glaring lack of information and supporting evidence is kinda the point, along with the fact that this allegation precedes the calculation or publication of any results.
> Seriously though, the glaring lack of information and supporting evidence is kinda the point
Yeah that's the point.
I would say, instead of blaming Trump for punching a hole in the cornerstone of democracy, it just demonstrated how fragile the system already is. So many people are already eagerly ready to do that to win. Trump only dog-whistled them by doing so as president.
Also for the record for those people not in California.
We don't have "election day". We have "election month". Most of us got our ballots a whole month ago. I myself received two of my neighbors ballots in the mail that I returned to them but I could have easily filled it out for Larry Elder and mailed it in.
> The primary analytical tool used was Benford’s Law and can be readily reproduced
The fraud claim in the article is that they did a statistical analysis and detected fraud. Of an election where there is yet to be anything to statistically analyze.
The website (which I linked to above) makes the following specific claim:
4. Statistical analyses used to detect fraud in elections held in 3rd-world nations (such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran) have detected fraud in California resulting in Governor Gavin Newsom being reinstated as governor. The primary analytical tool used was Benford’s Law and can be readily reproduced.
Please explain to me how you can do a statistical analysis more than a day before any results have been tallied or published. Having a website ready to go if you believe there was fraud is not unreasonable, but writing up your claims before even knowing the result seems either irrational or dishonest.
Please follow the HN guidelines and stick with addressing the story, not a bunch of other stories that you may legitimately find more interesting but which have no direct bearing on this one. Also, I haven't downvoted you because I can't downvote top level comments on my own thread.
Also, you claim that '70% of voters at an LA voting center were told they had already voted', which you have repeated here several times.
I looked at the link you provided and it included no percentage information of any kind, just allegations about 4 people and some unspecified number of 'friends'. I don't understand where you are getting the 70% figure from.
Some San Fernando Valley voters think they are being wrongly prevented from casting a ballot in the upcoming gubernatorial recall election, but the county elections office said it was an equipment issue that was resolved.
At El Camino Real Charter High School in Woodland Hills, some voters say they were told the computers showed them as already having voted, even though they had not.
West Hills resident Estelle Bender, 88, said she was far from the only person who was being told incorrectly that they had already voted. In addition to friends of hers who experienced the issue and two other women outside the polling place, Bender said that inside, “the man next to me was arguing the same thing.” Bender said she filled out a provisional ballot and “left really angry.”
“I’d still like to know how I voted,” Bender said.
The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder’s office said in a statement that there were issues with the settings on devices used to check in voters prior to voting. “After troubleshooting the issue, the equipment at the locations was replaced and voting continued,” a spokesman for the office said. The spokesman noted that provisional ballots were issued and that they are a “failsafe option” to ensure that everyone’s votes are counted. “Once the eligibility of the voter is verified, [the ballots] are processed and counted,” the statement added.
Editor’s note: This story was updated to include details about the equipment issues described by the Registrar-Recorder’s office.
"Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic."
If you watch the video interviews they mention it.
Also, most democrats aren't voting in person as they are afraid of the "covid". Republicans vote in person because they spent the last two years bitching about mail-in voter fraud.
Since some people are lying and saying the fraud claims are baseless here's another news report from today alone about how 70% of the (republican) voters were told they already voted:
Harmeet Dhillon, who lives in SF has mentioned they already have a lot of evidence that has been pouring in and they are collecting more to bring a strong case.
22 comments
[ 3.7 ms ] story [ 56.3 ms ] threadThis is the website in question, asserting that Benford's law shows evidence of fraud in the election results: https://stopcafraud.com/
Seriously though, the glaring lack of information and supporting evidence is kinda the point, along with the fact that this allegation precedes the calculation or publication of any results.
Yeah that's the point.
I would say, instead of blaming Trump for punching a hole in the cornerstone of democracy, it just demonstrated how fragile the system already is. So many people are already eagerly ready to do that to win. Trump only dog-whistled them by doing so as president.
1) Just today 70% of voters at an LA voting center were told they had already voted. Guess what? They were all republican.
https://twitter.com/RubinReport/status/1437488290995703808
2) Earlier last month a man was found with 300 unopened ballots:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/california-man-busted-with...
3) Prior to that people were caught on camera stealing ballots:
https://twitter.com/adamcarolla/status/1428416580698861573
So please stop saying it is baseless.
We don't have "election day". We have "election month". Most of us got our ballots a whole month ago. I myself received two of my neighbors ballots in the mail that I returned to them but I could have easily filled it out for Larry Elder and mailed it in.
I mean if I'm going to have to show my vax papers to go to a goddamn restaurant maybe I should show some id to vote.
Dispute that.
The fraud claim in the article is that they did a statistical analysis and detected fraud. Of an election where there is yet to be anything to statistically analyze.
Also, pretty sure when someone is arrested with 300 stolen ballots your argument that there is no fraud goes out the window.
4. Statistical analyses used to detect fraud in elections held in 3rd-world nations (such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran) have detected fraud in California resulting in Governor Gavin Newsom being reinstated as governor. The primary analytical tool used was Benford’s Law and can be readily reproduced.
Please explain to me how you can do a statistical analysis more than a day before any results have been tallied or published. Having a website ready to go if you believe there was fraud is not unreasonable, but writing up your claims before even knowing the result seems either irrational or dishonest.
Please follow the HN guidelines and stick with addressing the story, not a bunch of other stories that you may legitimately find more interesting but which have no direct bearing on this one. Also, I haven't downvoted you because I can't downvote top level comments on my own thread.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Also, you claim that '70% of voters at an LA voting center were told they had already voted', which you have repeated here several times.
I looked at the link you provided and it included no percentage information of any kind, just allegations about 4 people and some unspecified number of 'friends'. I don't understand where you are getting the 70% figure from.
Some San Fernando Valley voters think they are being wrongly prevented from casting a ballot in the upcoming gubernatorial recall election, but the county elections office said it was an equipment issue that was resolved.
At El Camino Real Charter High School in Woodland Hills, some voters say they were told the computers showed them as already having voted, even though they had not.
West Hills resident Estelle Bender, 88, said she was far from the only person who was being told incorrectly that they had already voted. In addition to friends of hers who experienced the issue and two other women outside the polling place, Bender said that inside, “the man next to me was arguing the same thing.” Bender said she filled out a provisional ballot and “left really angry.”
“I’d still like to know how I voted,” Bender said.
The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder’s office said in a statement that there were issues with the settings on devices used to check in voters prior to voting. “After troubleshooting the issue, the equipment at the locations was replaced and voting continued,” a spokesman for the office said. The spokesman noted that provisional ballots were issued and that they are a “failsafe option” to ensure that everyone’s votes are counted. “Once the eligibility of the voter is verified, [the ballots] are processed and counted,” the statement added.
Editor’s note: This story was updated to include details about the equipment issues described by the Registrar-Recorder’s office.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
"Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic."
Fucking liberal douchebag.
Also, most democrats aren't voting in person as they are afraid of the "covid". Republicans vote in person because they spent the last two years bitching about mail-in voter fraud.
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/san-fernando-valley-residen...
https://www.cagop.org/s/caelectionintegrity/incident-report
Harmeet Dhillon, who lives in SF has mentioned they already have a lot of evidence that has been pouring in and they are collecting more to bring a strong case.
Here's the link that was deleted again:
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/san-fernando-valley-residen...
https://www.cagop.org/s/caelectionintegrity/incident-report
Harmeet Dhillon, a SF based attorney has mentioned she already has quite a lot of evidence.
(again this link was censored/deleted by the liberal mods)