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Ask HN: How scared should a new grad be of the possible economic downturn?

9 points by kubrickslair ↗ HN
I am a foreign student who graduated last fall with a ML/ NLP heavy MS from a top 5 CS school.

I have been trying to do build my own thing, but against my research advisor's advise I was working alone, and things did not turn out that well. Also I have not started looking for jobs, and am a bit lethargic to do so.

I have six more months left before I need to get a full-time job (visa regulations). Should I get shit-scared and start looking for one right away. Or can I wait a little longer. My friends tell me that there is a big hiring boom in general in SV, and even in the worst of economic times (2008-09), tech hiring did not ease substantially. I am not sure if that would be true, especially in the startup world.

So what is HN's advise?

Background: I have never worked in the industry, but have published a couple of research papers, and have created some real user facing, moderately popular stuff, while in the university.

20 comments

[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 56.8 ms ] thread
glimcat
You have a deadline. Start now unless you want the error bars to wreck your plans.

Worst case, pimp yourself out as a generic Python programmer or something like that. Companies have been having a tough time finding competent employees. But ML & NLP is a very nice hammer to be swinging; you can probably find something interesting to work on if you start ASAP.

kubrickslair
To talk about the worst case, were you around 2001-02? Did all tech companies stop recruiting then?
glimcat
A few companies exploded, but there were still a lot of job openings. Hiring standards got a bit more sane, if anything.

The world runs on computers. People who can make them sit up and beg are not going to stop being in demand any time soon.

kubrickslair
Ah, I think I should spend less time being paranoid. Working alone in a room really makes one sick, you start devaluing yourself and your skills without any concrete evidence. I totally get pg's insistence on teams now.

Thanks for the reply.

glimcat
I know what you mean. There are a lot of other good points to it as well - like conversation, exposure to interesting things you wouldn't normally encounter, and Nash equilibria which leave you doing less of the stuff you don't like in exchange for more of the stuff you do.

I wouldn't quite say that unemployment is something that happens to other people, but that's damn near the case for competent engineers if you put even a bit of effort into networking and self-marketing.

kubrickslair
> I wouldn't quite say that unemployment is something that happens to other people, but that's damn near the case for competent engineers if you put even a bit of effort into networking and self-marketing.

Either I am not reading it properly, or you probably missed a word or two. But I wanted to confirm the gist of what you are saying here- it's that the vicious cycle of being left alone (after being laid off etc.) is one of the primary reasons why some competent engineers stay unemployed.

glimcat
Statistically, competent engineers have very little trouble finding a position compared to the general population.

Finding an ideal position is harder, but I don't doubt that you can find something to solve your visa issue.

kubrickslair
A special thank you for your advice.

Also it was very interesting to see the wide range of comments from every one else. Thanks for that as well.

eof
Being 'scared' is rarely useful; and I don't have any specific advice other than what others have said in this thread already.

But, you will have 0% problem finding a job that pays decently, even if it is not interesting I think it should be able to tide over your visa requirements until you can find something nice.

In short; there is a much much higher demand for people with your skills than people to fill those positions so you are in a fine spot.

kubrickslair
This may come off as a reddit kind of comment, but it's ironic for me that my slightly scared state of mind became more apparent when I misinterpreted glimcat's comments in a negative light. I agree being 'scared' is rarely useful.

Also a related question to anybody who cares to answer. How often do people doing startups get scared or strongly discouraged. Is it much less often when working in a team. And the kind of well-knit team induced self-delusion which helps in hardships, also results in insularity which lead to the final downfalls- the kind we are seeing with RIM co-founders for instance.

glimcat
"How often do people doing startups get scared or strongly discouraged."

There are ups an downs. It's easy to get discouraged - and sometimes, you should be. The success ratio for startups is not very high. But the startup environment has a lot of perks, like working on interesting problems with highly enthusiastic people. Teams help, as does remembering to actually get out of the lab occasionally.

trustfundbaby
I don't know what an ML/NLP is, but if you can program, and can pick up ios/Android programming in the next few months it shouldn't be that tough to find a gig, especially if you're willing to relocate ... programmers are very in demand right now.
pdelgallego
I thing he refers to Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing
wccrawford
It should make you scared enough that you start trying to prove you have value RIGHT NOW. Start a portfolio. Code on GitHub is good. Start working on projects, either your own, or someone else's, so you can say you were part of things.

I'm not just talking out of my arse. I still remember getting that first job, and showing them that I had done things was a HUGE part of that.

I've also been in on interviews for dozens of candidates, and the ones that showed code were always much more likely to impress us. Without code, we had to guess how much you understood, and how much you were bluffing. Code doesn't lie.

kubrickslair
I agree that I should get scared enough to prepare and apply. But not so scared that I don't.

But to talk about the value of real code, the impression I get by looking at my friends, almost all big SV companies care about are how fast you can answer the almost cookie-cutter questions which can be culled from a number of forums. I know people had interns at MSR and pretty good publications but were rejected over those who semi-memorized those questions, but had almost nothing else to show off. Shameful process, which is partly the thing that puts me off.

Also to talk about the bluff. How can peer-reviewed research at decent venues be considered bluff. Or if you have contributed something which can be accessed by anyone, is visibly used by many, but is not on Github, how is that a bluff?

Is it only because you (as a recruiter) do not know what concrete contribution you (candidate) had in that specific effort? If that's the only thing, should not the right reference sort that out?

angdis
Being "scared" is never the right thing to do. Just do your best and realize that things might not always go according to plan. Also, there are a whole lot of places other than SV.
systemizer
I don't really see this as a problem. The economical downturn is an opportunity to excel. Sure, there are things you can't control like government policy, taxes, etc. But the fact that people across the board will be dealing with more problems means that there are more solutions to be had. Challenge Accepted.
hooeezit
I was around in 2001-2002 and again in 2008-2009. I needed visa sponsorship. Yes, there were jobs available, but few where the employer was willing to sponsor a visa. I had many interviews where the employer was jubilant at the end of the interview, and then 2 days later, HR called to tell me that they won't be taking on anyone who requires visa sponsorship. Recruiters told me that I would be immensely valuable once I got my green card. So, yes, you should be worried. Especially if the market keeps going down. But there is a ray of hope. The new rules tweaks from the USCIS give people like you a lot of breathing room. You can sponsor your own H1B visa if you build your own startup and have a board that has the ability to hire/fire/manage you. The American Immigration Lawyers' Association (AILA) is still working on understanding the tweaks, and there won't be much clarity until a few visa applications are approved or rejected based on the new rules. So, it will take at least 2 months to get clarity. Start looking for jobs through your professional network (build one if you don't have one), and start looking for a good immigration lawyer. I could actually help with the latter. Online jobs websites are mostly useless until you have a green card.
grimen
If you have higher ambitions than your average class mate (no matter what grades they got) and everyday try to excel in the things you plan to work with; then you are always safe. Say you want to be a software architect, then you should do open-source, hacks, learn new paradigms/technologies, etc, on your spare time. People that are very intelligent by nature and have been thought (in school, by parents, etc) that they are usually just intelligent - I learned that they very often lack the will to do that extra effort it very often takes (especially in startups). I say "they" as I consider myself average IQ-wise, but I still outshine the ones with high grades in many areas because of crazy ambitions, visions, and curiosity. I would never employ someone that is just intelligent. People with ambitions cause wonders everyday that "just very intelligent" people don't dare to risk. E.g. Steve Jobs is intelligent, but most of all he's ambitious. Choose a path where you do what you love that requires specific skill of some sort, and you will don't have to worry about getting a job.
jriley
Stay productive. Use resources at your university recruiting office now; you are paying for it. Higher pay will come later with reputation and quality work. I don't know about being a foreign student but you are likely better off than most:

According to WSJ, the unemployment rate for computer programmers (5.7%) is much lower than many professions, such as construction workers (~20%).

According to BLS, the unemployment rate for college grads is 5.4%; for Master's is 4%.

Sources: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870379190457607... http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm