> the US would help Australia develop a nuclear submarine capability
I wonder what help means? Is the US building the subs and turning them over to Australia, are they giving them plans and specs so they can build them themselves, or something in between?
Probably - "We'll allow you to buy 20 billion worth of submarines from our contractors if you guarantee our purchase of 20 billion worth of raw mining materials"
If historical Australian submarine deals are anything to go by construction work will be split between Australia and the US.
I think it’s safe to assume Australia will want to develop a full maintenance capability in Australia, which realistically means developing a manufacturing capability.
The US has been providing similar help to the UK since the 1960s. There, the US provided the missles (first Polaris, then Trident) and their launch tubes, while the UK built their own warheads and subs though I seem to recall the US's providing information (obtained from nuclear tests IIRC) important for warhead design and maybe nuclear material (i.e., plutonium).
Is that a joke? If China invades Taiwan and the nuclear umbrella is proven to be a fraud, the entire world order will come to a screeching halt as Japan and South Korea kick off an asia-wide arms race, because they have to.
The World Order where small countries aren't simply annexed by superpowers, like it used to happen during the WWI and WWII era.
Has the US increased the number of its states any time recently? No.
Meanwhile, Russia just waltzed into Crimea and is threatening the rest of Ukraine. China annexed Tibet, then just skipped a few decades of the planned transition of Hong Kong, going straight to the "one China" step and jailing anyone who has different ideas. They're now threating to take over the entire South China sea, and I guarantee you Taiwan is next. Just because of TSMC alone it's incredibly valuable to their long term plans.
China has clearly stated these ambitions, and then followed through with military action repeatedly.
Just recently, they imposed trade sanctions on Australia that ended tens of billions of dollars worth of exports simply because our PM had the wherewithal to suggest that it might be a good idea to investigate the origins of the Coronavirus. When interviewed on TV, their diplomat directly threatened us, saying that our behaviour is unacceptable and has "consequences".
This was not normal for decades. Russia and China want to go back to the "before times" when superpowers went to war to divvy up small countries in between them.
Now the "consequences" are that the little guys are tooling up with nukes.
This is the new World Order forming, and China is directly responsible for it happening.
Direct land acquisition is out of fashion only because there are better ways of control. That "world order" is indistinguishable from the systematic use of force and economic sanctions to make sure the "little guys" comply with the agenda of the big one.
I feel stupid to have to phrase such a banality, hopefully you are not just acting naive?
Edit: Indeed, the big one may slowly be losing its advantage due to China development, leading to some readjustment. We should have little preference though, as to which world disorder we prefer.
The fact this downvoted shows the level of discourse on HN.
Anyone paying even a little bit of attention to the situation in Asia Pacific knows this is accurate. Old enemies are finding common ground in opposition to China.
It's going to come as a big shock to a lot of people that the two major global superpowers aren't actually friends, even if people in the technology space all think otherwise.
Is this a joke? And what exactly is Australia (and UK and USA) going to do should China invade Taiwan? Please tell me, I am dying to know. They couldn't beat barefoot Taliban in 20 year's time, do you really think Five Eyes have any capacity for a full blown war with a nuclear power such as China? Please just stop with this nonsense. The only real enemy these countries have are their governments.
The Chinese are actively trying to establish control of their territories and it's surprising that anyone thinks that there isn't a real threat to global security which comes with that.
There's always a new threat. Communism around the globe, middle eastern dictators, Islamic terrorism, Russia now China.
All very convenient. "Every War in the past 50 Years is a Result of Media Lies" Jullian Assange
If Australia are so concerned about China then stop selling them minerals, stop buying their products etc.
If countries are genuinely concerned about China, then start to disengage commercially with them. Stop buying stuff from them, invest in production of alternative sources for white goods and electronics and cars and plastic stuff.
Stop selling them Iron ore and stop encouraging them to invest in your country.
Also start to positively engage with the rest of the developing world. Not by handcuffing them with monetary deals from the IMF and world bank, but with genuine selfless goodwill and repatriation to help them develop in sustainable ways.
You understand that there are about 1,000 different approaches to China that one could take and “economically cutting them off” is clearly escalating things? My impression is nobody really wants to go to war so it’s all soft power projection in the hopes some resolution (even temporary) can be found.
And you can’t view the China situation in a vacuum. It’s not like the Asia Pacific countries are all lined up perfectly, it’s all a balance between multiple countries with dozens of competing interests.
Not that I don’t disagree that the media selectively reports stories that are pushed by stakeholders with something to gain. But that’s nothing new. Listening to CNN (or any media outlet) won’t actually make you smarter.
These are replacing the 12 subs ordered from France, itself replacing 6 current Collins class due for replacement in the early 2030s. The french contract was missing deadlines, and there is even less chance these boats will be on schedule considering they're nukes. So total 6 extra hulls, typically 1/3 will be deployed while others train or maintain. Does extra presence of 2 subs dramatically affect PRC strategic planning in the 2040s/50s. Maybe, but not that much.
No one gets nuclear power, including the people with the subs. We're all phasing it out, out of a shared understanding that the political fight is worse than the climate and other impacts of just letting it die.
Power requirements on a sub vs a civilian power plant are on a different scale. A vessel reactor is small enough it easily contained and shielded, by comparison. You get free cooling. And it doesn't have to be cost effective.
I'd like more civilian reactors too. But scaling is an issue.
This is about the nuclear submarines. It's 100's of billions of dollars.
Currently all countries with nuclear-powered submarines have nuclear weapons.
Australia has been a hillbilly nation for a long while, they were literally looking at buying nuclear-powered submarines and converting them to diesel.
The have the expertise to deal with nuclear, the resources and a strategic position.
It could be a chance for them to grow up.
Traditionally they have used their large land size for digging. Farming and minerals. They have educated themselves at a high level but they do not use that except to sell education to others then send the locals to the mines.
It's hard to know if it's possible for Australia to pivot. Pride in being uneducated, like the fear of nuclear and the cult of environmentalism is as toxic there as anywhere else and they have left it late. But we will see.
Forgive my ignorance and especially how broad a surface. I am actually clueless in the grand scheme.
All our countries in some way buy everything from China, at least in the UK? Everything I have is in some way stamped with "Made in China" since I was quite young looking at my xmas toys. It seems to still be that way. The UK economy wants me to take out a credit card, get a haircut, buy a beer, then buy a sandwich and maybe stay in a hotel. If I want a TV, Fridge, Phone, Table, Standing Desk, Motor, Bicycle... It's made in China.
Over the years, I have seen information about the rise of China, when I go to my capital city, the vast majority of people I see are Chinese tourists, far more than I have ever seen American's despite being closer.
What I am just wondering is, the UK doesn't have a pot to piss in. In this country it will take decades to pay for a tiny little rail link whilst in China, they are laying high speed rail at a pace that literally blows my mind.
I can't put my finger on it but what is the point in this for spending money? America is a bag holder, the UK is involved to make it seem important, and what is the end goal for Australia? What is the actual end goal for any of us?
I need a new fridge, all my options are Chinese. But pretend that a submarine and some missles protect us? Until when? 2040 as your grandkid is paying covid while China booms?
"New Zealand was suspended from ANZUS in 1986 as it initiated a nuclear-free zone in its territorial waters; in late 2012 New Zealand lifted a ban on visits by United States warships leading to a thawing in tensions. New Zealand maintains a nuclear-free zone as part of its foreign policy and is partially suspended from ANZUS, as the United States maintains an ambiguous policy whether or not the warships carry nuclear weapons and operates numerous nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines; however New Zealand resumed key areas of the ANZUS treaty in 2007."
45 comments
[ 6.4 ms ] story [ 99.8 ms ] threadI wonder what help means? Is the US building the subs and turning them over to Australia, are they giving them plans and specs so they can build them themselves, or something in between?
I think it’s safe to assume Australia will want to develop a full maintenance capability in Australia, which realistically means developing a manufacturing capability.
And that's assuming Kim does nothing at all.
Has the US increased the number of its states any time recently? No.
Meanwhile, Russia just waltzed into Crimea and is threatening the rest of Ukraine. China annexed Tibet, then just skipped a few decades of the planned transition of Hong Kong, going straight to the "one China" step and jailing anyone who has different ideas. They're now threating to take over the entire South China sea, and I guarantee you Taiwan is next. Just because of TSMC alone it's incredibly valuable to their long term plans.
China has clearly stated these ambitions, and then followed through with military action repeatedly.
Just recently, they imposed trade sanctions on Australia that ended tens of billions of dollars worth of exports simply because our PM had the wherewithal to suggest that it might be a good idea to investigate the origins of the Coronavirus. When interviewed on TV, their diplomat directly threatened us, saying that our behaviour is unacceptable and has "consequences".
This was not normal for decades. Russia and China want to go back to the "before times" when superpowers went to war to divvy up small countries in between them.
Now the "consequences" are that the little guys are tooling up with nukes.
This is the new World Order forming, and China is directly responsible for it happening.
Edit: Indeed, the big one may slowly be losing its advantage due to China development, leading to some readjustment. We should have little preference though, as to which world disorder we prefer.
Anyone paying even a little bit of attention to the situation in Asia Pacific knows this is accurate. Old enemies are finding common ground in opposition to China.
If Australia are so concerned about China then stop selling them minerals, stop buying their products etc.
e.g. wouldn't have made the news a few years ago. suddenly the Japanese defence minister is being interviewed on CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/15/asia/japan-defense-minist...
If countries are genuinely concerned about China, then start to disengage commercially with them. Stop buying stuff from them, invest in production of alternative sources for white goods and electronics and cars and plastic stuff. Stop selling them Iron ore and stop encouraging them to invest in your country.
Also start to positively engage with the rest of the developing world. Not by handcuffing them with monetary deals from the IMF and world bank, but with genuine selfless goodwill and repatriation to help them develop in sustainable ways.
And you can’t view the China situation in a vacuum. It’s not like the Asia Pacific countries are all lined up perfectly, it’s all a balance between multiple countries with dozens of competing interests.
Not that I don’t disagree that the media selectively reports stories that are pushed by stakeholders with something to gain. But that’s nothing new. Listening to CNN (or any media outlet) won’t actually make you smarter.
Also 12 of them is a sizable fleet. Larger than the UK or French nuclear sub fleets.
So yes. It's China. Particularly China under Xi Jinping.
I'd like more civilian reactors too. But scaling is an issue.
Currently all countries with nuclear-powered submarines have nuclear weapons.
Australia has been a hillbilly nation for a long while, they were literally looking at buying nuclear-powered submarines and converting them to diesel.
The have the expertise to deal with nuclear, the resources and a strategic position.
It could be a chance for them to grow up.
Traditionally they have used their large land size for digging. Farming and minerals. They have educated themselves at a high level but they do not use that except to sell education to others then send the locals to the mines.
It's hard to know if it's possible for Australia to pivot. Pride in being uneducated, like the fear of nuclear and the cult of environmentalism is as toxic there as anywhere else and they have left it late. But we will see.
Biden's announcement - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGYzQERSjmQ
All our countries in some way buy everything from China, at least in the UK? Everything I have is in some way stamped with "Made in China" since I was quite young looking at my xmas toys. It seems to still be that way. The UK economy wants me to take out a credit card, get a haircut, buy a beer, then buy a sandwich and maybe stay in a hotel. If I want a TV, Fridge, Phone, Table, Standing Desk, Motor, Bicycle... It's made in China.
Over the years, I have seen information about the rise of China, when I go to my capital city, the vast majority of people I see are Chinese tourists, far more than I have ever seen American's despite being closer.
What I am just wondering is, the UK doesn't have a pot to piss in. In this country it will take decades to pay for a tiny little rail link whilst in China, they are laying high speed rail at a pace that literally blows my mind.
I can't put my finger on it but what is the point in this for spending money? America is a bag holder, the UK is involved to make it seem important, and what is the end goal for Australia? What is the actual end goal for any of us?
I need a new fridge, all my options are Chinese. But pretend that a submarine and some missles protect us? Until when? 2040 as your grandkid is paying covid while China booms?
What am I missing here?
Is there no better branding then...AUKUS?
"New Zealand was suspended from ANZUS in 1986 as it initiated a nuclear-free zone in its territorial waters; in late 2012 New Zealand lifted a ban on visits by United States warships leading to a thawing in tensions. New Zealand maintains a nuclear-free zone as part of its foreign policy and is partially suspended from ANZUS, as the United States maintains an ambiguous policy whether or not the warships carry nuclear weapons and operates numerous nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines; however New Zealand resumed key areas of the ANZUS treaty in 2007."
Sometimes a small country needs a big equalizer. For example...North Korea.